Reading the newspaper on a flight..

mercredi 15 octobre 2014

Took a short flight recently, and bought a USA Today and WSJ to pass the time. Some EXCELLENT articles in there. Not propaganda at all:



Front page of WSJ:

"U.S. - Led Coalition Bombards City in Effort to Save It"





From the USA Today:

"A Force for peace: MRAP sale to Emirates"





Pretty awesome.

We are bombing the region and selling weapons.

In order to bring peace.



:usa:





What would we do if we didn't want peace there?





Reading the newspaper on a flight..

Exposure CureMBBEFD

Does anybody know if there are individual property exposure curves (like the MBBEFD exposure curves) by insured values available somewhere?



Thanks!





Exposure CureMBBEFD

AVP, Reserving – Northeast USA – ACAS/FCAS w/ sharp Statistical Modeling skills – Per

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | P&C Jobs



Leading insurance company seeks a qualified Actuary to serve in a reserving role. Work will focus on reserving for professional lines of business. Experience with professional and casualty lines of business preferred. Ideal candidate will have great communication and statistical modeling skills. (#42512)







Apply at http://ift.tt/1iPhglC OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/100PVaE






AVP, Reserving – Northeast USA – ACAS/FCAS w/ sharp Statistical Modeling skills – Per

Director/Actuary – Northeast USA – FSA w/ Asset Liability Management background (#431

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | Life Jobs



Large life insurance company seeks FSA with strong Asset Liability Management experience. Work will involve product development, hedging, and credit renewal rate management. Ideal candidate will have Fixed Income knowledge and Prophet software skills. (#43184)







Apply at http://ift.tt/1iPhglC OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/100PUDH






Director/Actuary – Northeast USA – FSA w/ Asset Liability Management background (#431

Assistant Actuary – West USA – ASA/MAAA w/ solid SAS/SQL skills – Managed Care Financ

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | P&C Jobs



Healthcare provider seeking Associate Actuary with prior health experience and strong communication skills. Opportunity to be involved with several projects and work in various departments. MAAA is required as well as SQL/SAS skills. Managed care finance and/or analyses background preferred. (#42734)







Apply at http://ift.tt/1iPhglC OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/100PUn7






Assistant Actuary – West USA – ASA/MAAA w/ solid SAS/SQL skills – Managed Care Financ

Senior Consultant – Midwest USA – Candidate w/ relevant Data Analytics experience – E

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | P&C Jobs



Consulting firm seeks Data Analytics Group team member to oversee financial management of clients’ Health & Benefits plans and provide healthcare reform advisement. Solid relevant experience and polished communication skills required. (#43192)







Apply at http://ift.tt/1iPhglC OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/100PSvE






Senior Consultant – Midwest USA – Candidate w/ relevant Data Analytics experience – E

April 2015 Exam Progress

Due to complaints, I have taken the opportunity to recreate this thread to be more aesthetically appealing.



That said, I hope I don't have to post here more than once (since I'm taking MLC in October!)





April 2015 Exam Progress

Brownian Motion

The time- t price of a stock is S(t). You are given:

(i) The stock’s price follows geometric Brownian motion with expected rate of price appreciation of 0 and σ = 0.2

(ii) S(0) = 40

Calculate Pr(S(5) > 50).



In the solution, ln(S(0)) is not added to the mean. Why is this? I thought ln(S(5)│S(0)) ~ N(lnS(0) + (ξ-.5σ^2 )t, σ^2 t).



In chp. 26, there is an example:



Interest rates follow a Rendleman-Bartter model with a = 0.001 and σ = 0.01. Current rates are 0.04. Calculate the probability that rates will be higher than 0.04 three months from now.



The solution adds ln(r(0)) to the mean.





Brownian Motion

Do people really want to repeal the 17th amendment?

That's just crazy talk. morans.





Do people really want to repeal the 17th amendment?

Who feels ready to crush this thing?

Come on you lil' swITCHES!!



How many of you nasty pigs are ready to nail this sucker to the wall?!!!!!! Are you ready mofos?







(because I'm not :sad: :shudder: :cry:)





Who feels ready to crush this thing?

Exam C vs Exam ERM

How difficult is Exam ERM compared to Exam C? I am somewhat losing confidence, I was able to get through my prelims quite easily except for exam C. For Exam C, it is my third attempt and I still am failing. I just hope that If I get through C, I don't need to spend 4 attempts to pass ERM.





Exam C vs Exam ERM

Basic Limits Losses - Mahler 6.33

During policy year 2010, limits were raised. 30% of insureds bought the coverage at the initial limits (thus 70% bought it at the raised limits during PY 2010). The ILF to go from the first limit to the raised limit is 1.1. Basic limit losses during PY2010 were 60 mill.



In problem A)

PY 2010 basic limit losses at the current coverage level =

60000 x 1.1

since, according to the solution, basic limit losses in 2010 assume the first limit.



In problem B)

It is assumed that basic limit Losses for those who purchased the first limit were only 30% of total basic limit losses in PY 2010 = 30% x 60000.



So in problem A, it's assumed that all PY 2010 basic limit losses assume the first limit. While problem B assumes that only 30% of PY 2010 basic limit losses consist of the first limit.



CONFUSEREDD !



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Using the logic of problem B, I would think the correct answer to problem A would be:



(30% x 60 mill) (1.1 - 1) + 60 million



meaning we only need to apply the ILF to 30% of the 60 mill to get losses at the current level since 70% of policy 2010 losses are expected to be at the current level given that 70% of insureds bought coverage at the current level. I'm disturbed by the fact that we assume one thing in problem A and a different thing in problem B.





Basic Limits Losses - Mahler 6.33

Consultants – West USA – Student-FCAS/CAT w/ Catastrophe Bonds Pricing and/or Modelin

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | P&C Jobs



Leading West Coast consulting firm seeks qualified individuals with Insurance Linked Securities experience as they build out a new team. Areas of focus can include catastrophe bonds modeling, pricing support, portfolio optimization and software analysis for the ILS market. (#43185)







Apply at http://ift.tt/1iPhglC OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/1u5ljMq






Consultants – West USA – Student-FCAS/CAT w/ Catastrophe Bonds Pricing and/or Modelin

Resume Critique

I'm applying for full time entry level positions right now. So far, every single company has declined to send me an invitation for an interview and I'm concerned that there might be something wrong with my resume. I'd really appreciate it if some of you could look it over and if possible, quickly, so I can make the changes in time for the next round of selections. Please let me know where the problem spots are



Thank you!




Attached Images





File Type: pdf Anon.pdf (76.6 KB)







Resume Critique

Klaymen avoids sugar

So I watched the documentary "Fed Up" which talks about how much sugar is in stuff. (Maybe I already spoke about this in another thread, but it deserves its own here)

I admit I seemed to like sweet cereals for breakfast that weren't advertised as overtly sugary. For example, in was not unusual to eat up to 4 servings of Special K Fruit & Yogurt cereal plus milk in the morning. I decided for the first time to read the sugar content on the label and calculated I was consuming at least 50g of sugar (approximately equal to two candy bars) in the morning. :yikes:



Surely multi-grain cheerios would be much better. 6g per serving x 4 servings = 24g + 1 cup of milk = 34g. A little better, but still rather sugary. How about plain cheerios? Much better, only 1g per serving (my son is a stick, he eats it plain without milk). But I had a sugar shaker to adequately coat the top of a bland cereal like that. If I had a large bowl of oatmeal, I wanted 2.5 tablespoons (about 30g) of brown sugar to bring it to the desired taste. So I guess I was a lover of sugar without realizing it.



1 cup of milk? 10-11g.

1 yogurt? 15+g.

Generous quantity of jelly in my PBJ sandwiches for lunch? 15-20g

Mini Reese cup for dessert after dinner? 5-6g.

Occasional bowl of ice cream once a week? 20-30g

cup of juice/cider? 20-30g.

1/2 c of spaghetti sauce? 6-9g (This one isn't going away soon, but I'll stick to the 6g versions)

:yikes:



I would eat breakfast before 7am and would be into my lunch by 10:30. I would always feel hungry. No wonder, maybe it's obvious to the rest of you, but I couldn't understand why I was always hungry and always eating. (I had been hovering around the 222-225 lb range in the last couple months)



I decided to trim back on the sugar as much as possible, allowing myself still all the carbs and pasta I want, but making them whole wheat whenever possible. Fruit is better for you, because despite offering some amount of sugar, you get fiber and other stuff as well.



So now in the morning my breakfast is one banana and either 1-2 whole wheat bagels with a light coating of cream cheese or 3-4 pieces of whole wheat bread/toast with a light coating of low-sugar peanut butter. I ate other stuff as usual just no obvious sugar with the exception of a small piece of white chocolate (3g) after dinner.



The result? I do find myself a lot less hungry. I was pretty close to 220 around my birthday (9/29) at which point I was just getting started making these changes, and two weeks later I'm in the 216-217 zone. It has been pretty effortless, I haven't done any additional exercise - just the typical neighborhood walk a few times per week. I am amazed how different I feel hunger-wise.



These documentaries condemn sugar like other more henious drugs. I assume it's a lot easier to stop eating sugar than taking other drugs. But without realizing what I was doing, I was certainly consuming a lot of the stuff. With the potential for easy weight loss and better health, I am easily going to avoid the apple crisp brought in today and the donuts that will be brought in tomorrow. (I'm right next to the food cube)





Klaymen avoids sugar

How many points to pass?

I've been working practice problems and practice exams, but I have no idea if I'm anywhere close to passing the practice exams. Does anyone know *approximately* how many points on the exam is needed for a pass?





How many points to pass?

Mobile Hot Spot

If my phone is connected to wifi, and I activate it as a mobile hot spot, will devices connected to it use my 4G data plan, or use the phone as a wifi extender and not eat my data plan?





Mobile Hot Spot

Kick Start your Studying






Kick Start your Studying

Double down - OGZPY + USO

Both are beaten up and could go lower. GAZPROM is a dividend stock and isn't going anywhere as the massive oil company in Russia. The price is artificially low due to sanctions/Ukraine conflict/ oil prices.



Oil prices have fallen 25% or so. It is a bit more of a gamble as USO is a short term play and there may be some more downside.



I recommend $100k on each.





Double down - OGZPY + USO

City of Houston subpoenas area pastors

http://ift.tt/1r5sHpd




Quote:








The city of Houston has issued subpoenas demanding a group of pastors turn over any sermons dealing with homosexuality, gender identity or Annise Parker, the city’s first openly lesbian mayor. And those ministers who fail to comply could be held in contempt of court.




Quote:








Among those slapped with a subpoena is Steve Riggle, the senior pastor of Grace Community Church. He was ordered to produce all speeches and sermons related to Mayor Annise Parker, homosexuality and gender identity.



The mega-church pastor was also ordered to hand over “all communications with members of your congregation” regarding the non-discrimination law.



I wonder what grounds they have in order to justify the subpoena. Also, this reaks if alternative motives because, assuming they are all large churches, most of their sermons are probably online.





City of Houston subpoenas area pastors

Noncompete for Sandwhich Artists

http://ift.tt/1sSiwKg



People really sign this shit? I can't see how it would be worth their time to attempt to enforce.





Noncompete for Sandwhich Artists

Is anyone here willing to defend #Gamergate?

So... I saw a tweet from someone talking about gamergate and that lead me to the following post.



http://ift.tt/1sSiwtH



Since then I've read a few other articles on it, mostly from Gawker (or one of it's sister sites). All of which, admittedly, have come from the same viewpoint (extremely negative). None of the articles I read really linked to anything from the other side. Is there anyone here who can explain the other side to me? Or direct me to an article that articulates the position in favor of gamergate? I'm just trying to understand why someone would align themselves with this at all. And since I'm definitely an outsider to gaming culture, maybe I'm missing something completely obvious. Thoughts?





Is anyone here willing to defend #Gamergate?

CPCU 540 Exam Format

For some reason I can't find this anywhere on their website... How many questions? How much time? All multiple choice? When you register can you have them send your score to the SOA or is that something you have to do after the exam?





CPCU 540 Exam Format

SAS to do massive computation using GPU

Hi all,



It looks like people have done it using R. anybody have done it or have any reference to such topic? Thanks and happy programming....:party:





SAS to do massive computation using GPU

WMD's Found in Iraq, Kept Secret by Pentagon

http://ift.tt/1sSixOz




Quote:








Numerous US troops found and were exposed to chemical weapons while serving in Iraq after the 2003 invasion of the country, and they were plagued by not only the terrible after effects, but substandard medical care and little recognition after the military attempted to keep the discovery of the munitions a secret.



In a long expose highlighting the "secret U.S. casualties" posted Tuesday evening at The New York Times, journalist C.J. Chivers brings to light what has been suppressed for years by military officials. Between 2004 and 2010, according to the Times, soldiers found thousands of rusty, corroded chemical munitions throughout Iraq, though all were manufactured before 1991.



“I love it when I hear, ‘Oh there weren’t any chemical weapons in Iraq,’ ” former Army Sgt. Jarrod L. Taylor told Chivers. “There were plenty.”



In the run-up to the Iraq war in March 2003, the Bush administration made the case that Saddam Hussein was actively working to build and obtain weapons of mass destruction. These included claims of building biological weapons, chemical weapons, and nuclear weapons. The Times report, while revealing that Hussein did in fact have chemical munitions, notes that all were made before the 1991 Gulf War, and quite embarrassingly, often with US help.



Chivers writes:



In case after case, participants said, analysis of these warheads and shells reaffirmed intelligence failures. First, the American government did not find what it had been looking for at the war’s outset, then it failed to prepare its troops and medical corps for the aged weapons it did find.



In many of the cases Chivers highlights, explosive ordnance disposal personnel — believing they were dealing with old artillery or mortar shells on a roadside used as improvised explosive devices (IED) — disarmed them and sometimes put them in their trucks, being exposed to leaking chemicals such as mustard and sarin.



“This is mustard agent,” Staff Sgt. Eric J. Duling told his men over the radio, according to Chivers. “We’ve all been exposed.”



So looks like Bush may have been right after all. Weird how history seems to vindicate Republicans.





WMD's Found in Iraq, Kept Secret by Pentagon

Peaky Blinders

mardi 14 octobre 2014

Anyone watching this new show on Netflix? I watched the first 2 episodes and I like it. Has a Godfather feel to it so far.





Peaky Blinders

I need practice

YAP!





I need practice

Is it good to be good?good2bbad? Bad 2Bgood or bad to be bad?

Rank in top to bottom order which of these statements you agree most and agree the least on.



A. Good to be good.



B. Good to be bad.



C. Bad to be good.



D. Bad to be bad.



I personally would go



A.

D.

B.

C.





Is it good to be good?good2bbad? Bad 2Bgood or bad to be bad?

OC1 before Exam 5?

I just completed my last prelim. I am curious as to where the best time is to complete the two online courses. Exam 5 is next on my to-do list, but I might be able to complete OC1 in the next couple months. Although this thread my seemingly be better suited for the OC forums, I am asking the question in preparation of taking Exam 5 in spring 2015. Is it better to use the extra time starting early on studying for 5, especially given that its my first attempt at an upper level, or should i work in OC1 while I can?





OC1 before Exam 5?

Determining how many shares each dividend payment can buy

I am on page 650 of the ASM manual. Paragraph 6 and 7.



d = annualized dividend rate



The dividend payments, paid each day, will buy (1+d/365)^365t shares of a stock index from 0 to t, if reinvested.



I don't understand the steps used to derive this formula.



Paragraph 7 is actually a special note trying to explain the confusion the author anticipated. I don't understand the note either.



I don't understand what the author meant by:



"we will consider d to be a constant dividend rate based on the value of the stock index at any moment in time."



Paragraph 7.





Determining how many shares each dividend payment can buy

Major in Computer Science

Humblebrag on reddit disguised as a thread asking for financial advice:


Quote:








Originally Posted by Reddit Humblebrag

Hi, I'm about to graduate with an engineering degree and was fortunate enough to land a software engineering job in NYC (I'll be 22 when I graduate).



Because of my signing bonus ($75k lump sum), my total compensation for my first year will be about $215k, but thereafter should be about $140k+ annually, but some of this is in equity which starts vesting one year in (base salary + target performance bonuses ~= $115k annually).



I play to live with my parents in NJ and commute to work until I pay off my loans. My employer will also feed me and pay for my phone and gym, so my biggest cost of living will be transportation (~$400 a month for public transport).



This is what I roughly figure for the first year:



215k in gross income

- ~60k in taxes

- ~5k for transportation

- ~7k traditional 401(k) contribution matched by employer



Leaves 143k to pay off my loans (which have 9% interest). Am I being realistic?



I recognize that, despite being $150k in debt, I'm in a relatively fortunate position, but I'm still feeling a bit overwhelmed, so any advice would be much appreciated!




http://ift.tt/1r7C5IZ





Major in Computer Science

Resume Critique

Hi Everyone



I am applying to full time entry level actuarial positions and I need help on my resume. I have been applying for a few months now and I am a bit discouraged since I have not been getting any calls for interviews.



Here is a link to my resume: http://ift.tt/1r7C7R9 For some reason i wasnt able to attach the file here on the forum :)



For background, I have a bachelors in applied mathematics major in Actuarial Science from a university in Manila. I am a US citizen. I have about a year of experience as an actuarial analyst at Towers Watson in Manila and I have 1 actuarial internship. I have a preliminary pass for Exam P which i took last Sept 26 and I am set to take Exam FM this December.



Thank you so much. I would really appreciate your help and constructive criticisms :)





Resume Critique

MCT using discounted or undis unpaid?

For P&C1, is MCT calculated with discounted unpaid claim (prior to MfAD) or undiscounted unpaid claim? (same as premium liabilities)





MCT using discounted or undis unpaid?

Countdown to 10,000

:popcorn:





Countdown to 10,000

APRIL2015PROGRESSTHREAD

EXAM THREAD





APRIL2015PROGRESSTHREAD

Continuity correction for normal approximation

Can someone please explain as simply as possible what the rules are for when to apply continuity correction? Is it just when the frequency distribution is discrete?



Dumb question I know.... I learned it years ago and it just never sticks...





Continuity correction for normal approximation

Discount Rate

I'm very confused by the different definitions of "discount" that I'm learning in my different classes. According to what I learned for Exam FM/2, you would use v(t)=(1-d)^t to find the PV of of some amount given the effective discount rate.



But now, in my finance classes, they basically use the word discount interchangeably with interest, and use v(t)=(1+i)^-t to find the PV whether the stated rate is called "interest" or "discount".



Someone please explain??





Discount Rate

Youth center is great idea

I believe a youth center is a great idea for this county. The children need some place to spend their time constructively instead of roaming the streets and possibly getting in trouble. They need to offer a variety of activities and/or clubs like martial arts, basketball, gaming using Xbox, Wii, etc.





Youth center is great idea

Vote to let elected officials know they work for us

We seem to reward our representatives for bad behavior by voting them into office again and again, and not requiring anything more from them. So far, the current U.S. Congress has enacted 142 laws, the fewest of any Congress in the past two decades. Only 108 of the bills passed were substantive pieces of legislation, while 34 dealt with renaming post offices, anniversary commemorations and other ceremonial issues.



The U.S. House of Rep*resentatives voted at least 40 times to repeal Obama*care. What a waste of time.



One law passed by the House specifies the amount of precious-metal blanks permitted in National Baseball Hall of Fame commemorative coins. Another waste of time.



We spend roughly $6 billion each year on members of Congress, counting health and retirement benefits, and a salary of $174,000 each. Why? Our congressman is with this group of highly paid Congressional members who did not earn their salaries. Yet he wants us to send him back so he can do it again.



Congress works around 175 to 180 days a year. That is about $1,000 a day in salary alone.

This Congress voted against equal access to healthcare, public education, marriage equality, voting rights, a woman's right to choose and a living wage. Does our congressman think his mother should earn 75 percent of what a man would earn doing the same job? According to his voting record, he does.



If the Republicans win both the House and Senate, they plan to do away with the 17th Amendment. That would take away your right to vote for and elect you senator. They would do that for you. If they want to change the voting rules, do away with the Electoral College and make whoever gets the most popular votes the winner in presidential elections.



Please, get out and vote this fall. Let the elected officials know they work for us, not the senior senator from Kentucky who advises his colleagues on Capitol Hill that all they need to do is see that President Obama fails.





Vote to let elected officials know they work for us

Help Rulebreaker make last-minute wedding decisions

I have a bunch of dumb things to finalize and need people to tell me what to do.



First issue: we kind of hedged on the wedding party, we emailed like 26 people including our siblings and siblings in law and told them we weren't really having a wedding party but they could wear fall colors and be in the pictures, and asked them if they wanted to participate. Most of them responded sure. One responded no, I'm too pregnant. A handful did not respond at all.



Questions:



1) We're not including these people in the processional, or having a rehearsal. All information will need to be conveyed by email. Where should they be during the chuppah ceremony?

2) Should I put their names in the program? And if so, what do I even call them? Is it going to piss off other close-ish friends who weren't included? I was thinking we were being all inclusive by not drawing tighter lines, but now I realize I'm just an idiot and now a larger group of people will be mad that they didn't make the top 20 or whatever.

3) Do we have to buy them presents? And if so OMG WHAT can we buy?





Help Rulebreaker make last-minute wedding decisions

Turkey Bombs Kurds

http://ift.tt/1sNXIDM




Quote:








ISTANBUL/SURUC Turkey - War against Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq threatened to spill into Turkey on Tuesday, where reports emerged that the air force had bombed Kurdish fighters furious at Ankara's refusal to help protect their kin in Syria.



At least 35 people were killed in riots last week when members of Turkey's 15-million-strong Kurdish minority rose up in anger at the government for refusing to help defend the Syrian border town of Kobani from an Islamic State assault.



The jailed leader of Turkey's banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has threatened to call off talks to end a decades-old insurgency in Turkey if no progress is made by Wednesday.



Hurriyet newspaper's website said Turkish warplanes had hit PKK targets in Turkey on Sunday, the first such strikes since a peace process began in Turkey two years ago. The strikes were also reported by media sympathetic to the PKK.



A U.S.-led coalition is launching air strikes against Islamic State fighters who control swathes of Syria and seized much of northern Iraq in recent months. The turmoil in Turkey shows the danger of spillover from two complex multi-sided civil wars in which every country in the Middle East has a stake.



Ankara has refused to join the U.S.-led military coalition against Islamic State unless it also confronts Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. On Monday it denied U.S. assertions that it had agreed to let American planes take off from its air bases.



Meanwhile, Islamic State fighters have been fighting their way into the mainly Kurdish Syrian border town of Kobani, where the United Nations says thousands could be massacred within full view of Turkish tanks that have done nothing to intervene.



The fate of Kobani could wreck efforts by the Turkish government to end a three decades long insurgency by PKK militants, a conflict that killed 40,000 people but largely ended with the start of a peace process in 2012.



There was no immediate comment from the military on the report that it bombed Kurdish positions, once a regular occurrence in southeast Turkey but something that had not taken place for two years.



Hurriyet said the air strikes on Sunday caused "major damage" to the PKK. They were launched after three days of PKK attacks on a military outpost in Hakkari province near the Iraqi border, it added.



"F-16 and F-4 warplanes which took off from (bases in the southeastern provinces of) Diyarbakir and Malatya rained down bombs on PKK targets after they attacked a military outpost in the Daglica region," Hurriyet said.



It said the PKK had attacked the outpost for three days with heavy machine guns and rocket launchers. The general staff said in a statement it had "opened fired immediately in retaliation in the strongest terms" after PKK attacks in the area, but did not mention air strikes.



Jailed PKK co-founder Abdullah Ocalan has said peace talks between his group and the Turkish state could come to an end by Wednesday. After visiting him in jail last week, Ocalan's brother Mehmet told reporters the PKK leader had said: "We will wait until Oct. 15. We will convey to the visiting delegations our thoughts. After that there will be nothing we can do."



The peace process with the Kurds is one of the main initiatives of President Tayyip Erdogan's decade in power, and its potential collapse shows the difficulty Turkey has had in designing a Syria policy. Turkey has already taken in some 1.2 million refugees from Syria's three-year civil war, including 200,000 Kurds who fled the area around Kobani in recent weeks.



U.S. officials have expressed frustration at Erdogan's refusal to help them fight against Islamic State.



"TOO LATE FOR US"



The battle for Kobani has grinded for nearly a month, with Islamic State slowly advancing and now in control of much of the town. Kurdish fighters known as Popular Protection Units (YPG), allies of the PKK, are demanding Turkey allow arms across the border to help them resupply.



"There are fierce clashes, with no retreat or progress (by Islamic State). Yesterday, (IS) detonated three suicide car bombs in eastern Kobani," said Ocalan Iso, deputy head of the Kobani defense council.



In the Turkish town of Suruc, 10 km (6 miles) from the Syrian frontier, a funeral for four female YPG fighters was being held. Hundreds at the cemetery chanted "Murderer Erdogan" in Turkish and also "long live YPG" in Kurdish.



Sehahmed, 42, at the cemetery to visit the grave of his son who was a YPG fighter and died only a few days ago, said if Turkey had intervened in Kobani, the town would have been saved.



"For days now they are just watching our people get killed. (U.S. President Barack) Obama is too late too. (Islamic State) is now inside the city, they're on the streets. The airstrikes won't work, it will only delay the inevitable. Its too late for us. Our poor people, we face one disaster after another."



The U.S.-led coalition has hit Islamic State positions in and around the town but failed to halt the advance. At least six air strikes were heard from the Turkish side of the border on Tuesday. Gunfire and shelling were audible from the Turkish side, where Kurds, many with relatives fighting in Kobani, have maintained a vigil, watching the fighting from hillsides.



"I hear that people say (Islamic State) control the east and southeast but in fact they are scattered all across the city. That is why clashes are taking place pretty much everywhere," Adil Selmo, 28, said as he stood on the Turkish said.



He said his brother-in-law was still in Kobani and no weapons or ammunition had made it into the town.



Obama will discuss a strategy to counter Islamic State on Tuesday with military leaders from 20 countries, including Turkey, Arab states and Western allies, amid growing pressure to do more to stop the militants' advance.



Kurds in neighboring Iraq, who are also fighting hard against Islamic State, said they had sent ammunition to help their brethren in Syria make their stand in Kobani. Alan Othman, a Syrian Kurdish media official, said the shipment was trapped in another part of Syria and could not get to Kobani without help from Turkey opening a supply corridor.

Armed men, presumed by local sources to be Islamic State fighters, are pictured at a checkpoint in the west of Syrian town of Kobani, seen from near the Mursitpinar border crossing on the Turkish-Syrian border in the southeastern town of Suruc in Sanliurfa province October 13, 2014.  © REUTERS/Umit Bektas Armed men, presumed by local sources to be Islamic State fighters, are pictured at a checkpoint in the west of Syrian town of Kobani, seen from near the Mursitpinar border crossing on the Turkish-Syrian border in the…

In Iraq, Kurdish forces and government troops have rolled back some Islamic State gains in the north of the country in recent weeks, but the fighters have advanced in the west, seizing territory in the Euphrates valley within striking distance of the capital Baghdad.



The United States used helicopter gunships against the militants last week for the first time to prevent what Washington described as a threat to Baghdad's airport.



The White House says it will not send U.S. forces back into ground combat in Iraq, where Obama withdrew all troops in 2011 after an eight year occupation. U.S. commanders have spoken of increasing U.S. advice and support for Iraqi ground forces.



(Additional reporting by Jeff Mason and Phil Stewart in Washington; Writing by Oliver Holmes; Editing by Peter Graff)



Isn't this what we got mad at Suddam for in the early 90's? I mean, this aggression will not stand, man.





Turkey Bombs Kurds

Rate Deviations

I've seen two different methods for calculating a rate deviation/impact.



ELR = Experience Loss Ratio

PLR = State's permissible loss ratio



Method 1: Deviation/impact = ELR - PLR + 1

Method 2: Deviation/impcat = ELR / PLR



I started thinking maybe Method 1 was required for deviating from a prima facie rate, hence it's more conservative than Method 2. I also considered the possibility that Method 2 can be used unless the state specifically requires Method 1. Are they both right?



Thanks





Rate Deviations

Exam C - ASM 16th ed 2nd printing

$120.00 and free shipping - will throw in some random Mahler exams that I have printed as well, if you like.



Like New - I really only used it for the practice exams. There are a few 'frustration marks/ scribbles' in the first few exams but nothing that gives away answers or hinders reading ability.



Will ship outside of contiguous U.S. for additional fees.



Word to all of you.





Exam C - ASM 16th ed 2nd printing

Government: Back in Your Bedroom!

As long as you're a college student.





Government: Back in Your Bedroom!

Mahler PE 15.8

For Mahler PE 15.8, why it doesn't plus bias^2 to calculate MSE





Mahler PE 15.8

first professional massage, maybe slight NSFW content, no images

So I got my first professional massage ever recently. It was at some place that wielded limited English and cot $63 for 60 minutes. It was full backside of the body, nothing front aside from front of arms while semi-draped on the side of the table. The table was heated, which was freaking awesome.



I fear I have a new addiction to battle now.



Also, for 12-24 hours afterwards, I was slight sore in the muscles on all areas that received more than cursory attention.



No happy ending, but I was 25%-35% happy at one point. Underwear was slid down such that easily half my luscious ass would have been visible to the massage person. I didn't even see her face until it was all over because she entered the dark room from a bright sunlit room so all I really saw was a silhouette. She said "ready?" I said "absolutely", and the neck was the first area.



Now I want to know why I waited so long in life to get one.



Tipping: I think I tipped $17, so I paid $80 for the $63 one-hour service. Did I do that part right?





first professional massage, maybe slight NSFW content, no images

1985 Pension Disability Table

Does anyone have the table for the 1985 Pension Disability Table Class I - Unisex?





1985 Pension Disability Table

Use your phone to help detect cosmic rays

Seems nifty. I expect some :tfh:erry about giving this app access to one's camera all night. (bohwm-chika etc)



http://ift.tt/1toQfwG





Use your phone to help detect cosmic rays

Manager Question

Question for you managers - was there ever a point after you became a manager when you realise that you have become the manager that you aspired not to be?



This is similar to growing up and saying that you'd never be like your dad, only to find out later when you are a dad that you are exactly like your dad. Or to become a mom and find out you are exactly like your mother.



Did you ever have thoughts - "when I become a manager, I'll be sure not to do XYZ" only to do XYZ later on? If so, did you find out it was impossible to not do XYZ or have your attitudes toward it changed, or both?







discuss





Manager Question

Question on the exam day - MLC

Hi,



I am reading the front cover of the exam MLC (8:30-12:45) and have some questions



1. Could I use both pen and pencils?



2. What's the candidate number? The ten digit order number?



3. We are asked to "blacken the circle" for the multiple choice question and the answer sheet will be mechanically scored. Do I have to write very hard to be scored? I think I will use 2B pencil.



4. When can we write my info (name/candidate number/test site code/exam part/ booklet number) on the answer sheet? 8:30 or 8:45?



Thanks!





Question on the exam day - MLC

Reserve risk and correlation

Hello Everyone,



I'm a currently working on an internal model in the Solvency II framework concerning reserve risk.



We are looking for ideas on how to estimate correlation between accident years. If there are any way to do so, I'm intersted.



Thank you in advance.





Reserve risk and correlation

Took a pay cut and finally got into the Actuarial Field

Situation is, working for a P&C company for more then 5 years as an non-actuarial role. no chance for the actuarial department. (but love the people here). Finally got into another P&C company as an actuarial role with pay cut ($500 per year )and needs to relocate to a new city. No study program until one year. Feeling pretty scary, wondering if the sacrifice is worth it. any thoughts?





Took a pay cut and finally got into the Actuarial Field

Another Common Core Math Thread






Another Common Core Math Thread

For Sale: ASM Exam C/4 Manual - 16th Edition 3rd Printing

Great condition. Read through once. No writings, markings, highlights.



I used the ASM manual and nothing else. Just blew through the exam with ease.



Costs $225 brand new. Selling for $100 OBO, plus free shipping within the U.S.



PM me if interested





For Sale: ASM Exam C/4 Manual - 16th Edition 3rd Printing

Caliphate under sharia law

lundi 13 octobre 2014

This is just religious stuff; why should any human society be organized by it?



Beheading infidels, chopping thieves hands, stoning adulterers ...? Modern societies have better law and punishment standards than these ancient cruel and unusual ones.





Caliphate under sharia law

Coherency w VaR and CTE

I had a question on testing coherency for potential risk measures if that came up on the exam...



Properties of coherency:

Monotonicity: If X <= Y then f(X) <= f(Y)

Subadditivity: f(X+Y) <= f(X) + f(Y)

Positive homogeneity: lambda*f(X) = f(lambda*X) for lambda > 0

Translation invariance: a + f(X) = f(X + a)



How exactly do we interpret X<=Y and X+Y if we are talking about a set of numbers, since VaR and CTE are normally calculated on a set of numbers?



For example if I have the set X = {1,2,3} and the set Y = {4,5,6}, what does X<=Y and X+Y really mean in this case? While we're at it, would lambda * X and a + X simply be multiplying the set of numbers by lambda and adding a to all numbers in the set?



Thanks!





Coherency w VaR and CTE

Kim Jon-un has a Growing Hwang problem

Threat to power?



http://ift.tt/1sJoMnB





Kim Jon-un has a Growing Hwang problem

In your opinion, which unit had the most disgusting formula(s) (prelims) to memorize?

See title. I know some of the ST stuff isn't very nice either, but I haven't looked over that material much yet (that's what I get for going SOA).



If there's a set of formulas that I haven't mentioned in the poll that you feel is worthy of being here, post it. :)



FTR: I voted for A(t,T) and B(t,T) in MFE.





In your opinion, which unit had the most disgusting formula(s) (prelims) to memorize?

FA 10/17-10/21?

Is anyone taking the FA between 10/17 -10/21?





FA 10/17-10/21?

Distributions for Exam P

Hi,



I'm studying for Exam P in November, and I was wondering, which distributions are "necessary" to be completely, 100% comfortable with.



I have been focusing on the exponential, binomial, geometric, poisson, uniform, and normal, but occasionally, I see things like negative binomial, hypergeometric, gamma, etc. show up.



Is it worth it to just skip studying these more "obscure" in favor of knowing the others almost perfectly, or is it worth my time to get to know some of these less-familiar distributions?



Thanks in advance for any advice.





Distributions for Exam P

Disintermediation and reinvestment risk

I can find the definitoins online, but where in the syllabus are these defined? Specifically, I'm trying to answer CSP IU Fall 2012, question 4, part a.

Thanks in advance.





Disintermediation and reinvestment risk

Romney's New Joke

http://ift.tt/1tXM85d




Quote:








"President Obama went to the bank to cash a check and he didn't have his ID. And the teller said you've got to prove who you are.



"He said, 'How should I do that?' She said the other day Phil Mickelson came in, he didn't have his ID but he set up a little cup on the ground, took a golf ball, putted it right into that cup so they knew it was Phil Mickelson. They cashed his check.



"And then Andre Agassi came in. And Andre Agassi didn't have his ID either. He put a little target on the wall, took a tennis ball and racquet — hit it onto that target time. We knew that was Andre Agassi so we cashed his check.



"And she said to him, 'Is there anything you can do to prove who you are?' And [Obama] said, 'I don't have a clue.'



"And she said, 'Well, Mr. President, do you want your money in small bills or large bills?'"



Romney 2016





Romney's New Joke

Time to Grade

Submitted 8/26/14

MMR 10/6/14





Time to Grade

Outstanding Balance In The Tth period (sinking fund vs regular annuity)

Is there any reason why the outstanding balance shouldn't be in agreement at the end of the Tth period under both methods of analysis? I am looking at Example 2 (ADAPT) on page 355 of the ASM manual.



The loan is $22,000 over 10 years at 8%, so annual payments are $3,278.65



If I wanted to find the outstanding balance at the end of the 7th year in the "standard" way I'd just find ($3,278.65*(a angle 3 at 8%)), which gives me the PV at the end of the 7th year of the 3 remaining payments and is equal to $8,449.39.



Under the sinking fund method we'd subtract the value of the sinking fund at the end of the 7th year from the original loan value; I agree with the manual when it says that the balance is $7,972.53.



Obviously $8449.39 isn't $7,972.53 though. What am I missing?





Outstanding Balance In The Tth period (sinking fund vs regular annuity)

Download a Thread

Is there anyway to download / export a whole thread? I'd hate to lose my workout log if this place crashed.





Download a Thread

Formal Appeal of SOA question

Does anyone know if the SOA has a formal question appeal process? I've emailed the Education Staff and received a response regarding their interpretation of the question, but I (and others) still think the solution to the question was fundamentally flawed, and I'm just wondering how far you can go with this? If the responses from the Education Staff are consistently unhelpful, is there any further chance for appeal?





Formal Appeal of SOA question

Test your Southern fast food knowlege






Test your Southern fast food knowlege

Rate Indication where the compliment is the target ratio from previous rate review

I spelled complement as compliment in the thread title. Too late now.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When doing a rate indication that uses as a complement of credibility the target loss & LAE ratio from the last rate review, and the filed rate change ended up differing from the proposed rate change, apparently before using the target as a complement, you have to adjust it as follows (and trend it t00 but who cares about trending):



(Target L&LAE ratio from previous rate review) x (1 + filed rate change / 1+ approved rate change).



Can someone mathematically show or really REALLY logically and exactly explain how this makes perfect sense. I don't understand this really.





Rate Indication where the compliment is the target ratio from previous rate review

RIP -- Brad Smith, former SOA president

Brad Smith, Milliman chairman and former SOA president (2011-12), died on Sunday, October 12, while playing tennis. Brad and I were hardly friends, but this is certainly unexpected and sad.



Bruce





RIP -- Brad Smith, former SOA president

Can online gaming be prep for the exams?






Can online gaming be prep for the exams?

Social Security Is Shortchanging the Baby Boomers - And It's Bush's Fault!

http://ift.tt/1yub5w2




Quote:








...As part of this concerted effort to end the embezzlement, New York Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan introduced legislation to repeal the 1983 payroll tax hike, so there would be no Social Security revenue to embezzle.



But President George H.W. Bush, who had been able to avoid tax increases because of the availability of the surplus Social Security money, angrily denounced the proposal and used all the powers at his command to defeat Moynihan’s plan.



The looted Social Security money must be repaid. If that is done, there will be enough resources to pay full Social Security benefits for at least 20 more years. Without repayment of the looted Social Security money, the government may be unable to pay full benefits as early as three years from now. ...








Social Security Is Shortchanging the Baby Boomers - And It's Bush's Fault!

Happy Thanksgiving!

:canada:





Happy Thanksgiving!

I have to stop listening to people

family members keep telling me to do stuff and I listen to them. I have to stop but more than that , not feel unhappy that i have to keep disagreeing.



eg They tell me to eat when i'm not hungry



eg They want me to spend time with other people that are not interested in talking to me nor i to them



They want me to arrange my work hours the way they think will be best for me when they are clueless as to how work really is



they think that i should enjoy doing stuff that i don't enjoy and say that other stuff that i do enjoy is not worth doing





I have to stop listening to people

Adapt Exam P Subsription

Hello Friends



I am trying to subscribe to Adapt Exam P using my credit card but what i am receiving is (error HR3), i did a mail to the support team but 3 days later have not received a response.



anyone seen such an error or how to solve the problem please help



http://ift.tt/1yub4Ip[0]=1



regards





Adapt Exam P Subsription

Actuary who sells insurance on the side

dimanche 12 octobre 2014

Any actuaries out there sell annuities to their friends and fam?





Actuary who sells insurance on the side

Dumb question about returning to the gold standard...

Why should we return to a standard that is based solely on gold? Wouldn't it be prone to instability (simply look at the change in gold prices over the last few decades)? If we were to return to some sort of standard, wouldn't it make more sense to return to some sort of standardized pool of storable commodities (e.g. a mix of gold, silver, platinum, copper, iron, nickel, oil, wheat, etc.) in an effort to reduce volatility? I just don't see what makes gold unique or particularly useful for the role as a standard for currency.





Dumb question about returning to the gold standard...

ASM FM/2 Manual 11th for sale

I also have a ASM FM Study Manual (11th edition) for sale. Manual is in like new condition. No markings or highlights. Asking for $91 shipping included.

Private Message me if you re interested.





ASM FM/2 Manual 11th for sale

December FM 2014 Thread

Hello,

Let us start the Dec and give yourself a great holiday gift.

Btw, I study in Ottawa. I am happy to form a study group offline. Please let me know.

My progress so far: just read through the basic concept today.

Now I am going through the syllabus and questions fro SOA. I am hoping to get through the derivatives questions by the end of this month and get some warm up on the first part.



How is everyone's progress?





December FM 2014 Thread

Asset Share Pricing Termination Problem- Mahler 21.35

I'm aware that there's an edit for this problem in Mahler's errata, however, I'm still confused by the following:



The probability of termination in year 3 is 0.0816 (or is it year 2?? it's year 2 in the original problem but I think mahler changed it to year 3 in the errata), so that means



.0816 = (Year 3 Cumulative Persistency) - (Year 2 Cumulative Persistency). What is the Year 3 Cum Pers and Year 2 Cum Pers then???? I can't seem to get .0816 from doing Year 3 Cum Pers - Year 2 Cum Pers.





Asset Share Pricing Termination Problem- Mahler 21.35

Good Attitude?

Is this a good attitude? If I pass this round, I'd be fortunate. There's still a lot of room for improvement in my mastery of the material. If I don't pass, I would be given the chance to master it better next time. Of course, even if I pass I could continue studying and take the exam again, but lets be realistic. :)





Good Attitude?

The Turducken of Pie/Cake

PumPecApple



http://ift.tt/1xIydnt



Might think about trying this for Thanksgiving. Would have to do the pre-Thanksgiving run through though.





The Turducken of Pie/Cake

When to use prepaid forwards vs forwards?

Hi question here!



Maybe I confused something, but I think that the Put Call parity will result in different answers based on whether you chose to use prepaid forwards v forwards.

So my question is, in what case would you use prepaid forwards as opposed to the latter?



IE. (with cont. dividends) using Forwards

C-P = Se^(r-d)T -Ke-rT



and

C-P = Se^(-d)T - Ke^-rT using Prepaid



I don't see the questions specifying which one to use either. all help is appreciated, Thanks!





When to use prepaid forwards vs forwards?

annutities - three independent lives

Hi,



I cannot find any questions on 3 lives so can you give me a lead on the following question? I translate from another language so I simplied the wording:



3 lives aged (x), (y) and (z) with independent future lifetimes. You are given:



- PV of 1,000 payable at the end of every year, payable as long as at least one of (y) and (z) is alive, after (x) dies.....is 9,000.



- PV of 2,000 payable at the end of every year, payable as long as both (y) and (z) are alive, after (x) dies.....is 12,000.



Calculate 2000(a_xIy + a_xIz).



The answer is 30,000.



In the last line I tried to write an awkward notation for the two reversionary annuities: y gets the money after x dies and z gets the money after x dies.



I cannot seem to find anything to read on more than 2 lives, other than just old books. I have couple more questions similar to this one, maybe your answers will help me do those ones.





annutities - three independent lives

Going Dutch

This isn't really a public pensions post, nor exactly a non-public pensions post. Nor Social Security.



So here goes:

http://ift.tt/1xIyaYI




Quote:








Imagine a place where pensions were not an ever-deepening quagmire, where the numbers told the whole story and where workers could count on a decent retirement.



Imagine a place where regulators existed to make sure everyone followed the rules.



That place might just be the Netherlands. And it could provide an example for America’s troubled cities, or for states like Illinois and New Jersey that have promised more in pension benefits than they can deliver.






Get this... they realize that pension promises are expensive.




Quote:








Going Dutch, however, can be painful. Dutch pensions are scrupulously funded, unlike many United States plans, and are required to tally their liabilities with brutal honesty, using a method that is common in the financial-services industry but rejected by American public pension funds.



The Dutch system rests on the idea that each generation should pay its own costs — and that the costs must be measured accurately if that is to happen. After the financial collapse of 2008, workers and retirees in the Netherlands took the bitter medicine needed to rebuild their collective nest eggs quickly, with higher contributions from workers and benefit cuts for pensioners.



.....

About 90 percent of Dutch workers earn real pensions at their jobs. Their benefits are intended to amount to about 70 percent of their lifetime average pay, as many financial planners recommend. For this and other reasons, the Netherlands has for years been at or near the top of global pension rankings compiled by Mercer, the consulting firm, and the Australian Center for Financial Studies, among others.



Accomplishing this feat — solid workplace pensions for most citizens — isn’t easy. For one thing, it’s expensive. Dutch workers typically sock away nearly 18 percent of their pay, most of it in diversified, professionally run pension funds. That compares with 16.4 percent for American workers, but most of that is for Social Security, which is intended to provide just 40 percent of a middle-class worker’s income in retirement.



Dutch employers contribute to their system, too, but their payments are usually capped. While that may seem a counterintuitive way to make sure that pensions are well funded, it actually encourages companies to stick with pension plans. If the markets drop, Dutch employers do not receive urgent calls to pump in more money — the kind of cash calls that have prompted so many American companies to stop offering pensions. In the private sector, only 14 percent of Americans with retirement plans at work have defined-benefit pension plans — the ones that offer the most security — compared with 38 percent who had them in 1979. And if the markets rally and a Dutch pension fund earns more than it needs, the employers are not allowed to touch the surplus. In the United States, companies have found many ways to tap a pension surplus. The problem today is that there usually is no surplus left.



.....

While the Netherlands has a stellar reputation for saving, that doesn’t mean pensions have been without controversy there; in fact, a loud, intergenerational debate is occurring about how to manage pensions. The financial crisis raised new calls for reform, Mr. Ambachtsheer said. Retirees were shocked and angry to have their pensions cut by an average of 2 percent after the crash. That had never happened before, and many had no idea that cuts were even possible. A new political party, 50Plus, sprang up to defend the interests of older citizens and won two seats in the national Parliament.



But something else happened: Dutch young people found their voice. No matter their employment sector, they could see that their pension money was commingled with retirees’ money, then invested that way by the outside asset management firms. In the wake of the financial crisis, they realized that they and the retirees had fundamentally opposing interests. The young people were eager to keep taking investment risk, to take advantage of their long time horizon. But the retirees now wanted absolute safety, which meant investing in risk-free, cashlike assets. If all the money remained pooled, young people said, the aggressive investment returns they wanted would be diluted by the pittance that cashlike assets pay.



“Now the question is, ‘How do you resolve this dilemma?’ ” Mr. Ambachtsheer said. “Everybody wants safety and everybody wants an affordable system, and you can’t have both. It’s become a major public debate in the Netherlands.”



It’s a debate that is rarely, if ever, heard in the United States.













Going Dutch

Move out of actuarial career

Every time I'm studying for an exam I begin to brainstorm alternative (non-actuarial) career paths. The thought usually passes once the exam sitting is over - I just really hate studying. Out of curiosity, what are some some of the career changes that you all have seen successfully made? I currently work in reinsurance so have thought about trying to get into reinsurance underwriting.



Ideally it wouldn't be a step down in pay, but I know actuaries are often compensated well in relation to our counterparts at similar points in their careers.





Move out of actuarial career

Is memory an issue on the test?

For those who have taken the test, on how many problems did you fail to recall a needed formula, etc....?





Is memory an issue on the test?

ACTEX question on Expected gain from a game

The question itself is:



A carnival Sharpshooter game charges $25 for 25 shots at a target. If the shooter hits the bullseye fewer than 5 times then he gets no prize. If he hits the bullseye 5 times he gets back $10. For each additional bullseye over 5 he gets back an additional $5. The shooter estimates that he has a .2 probability of hitting the bullseye on any given shot. What is the shooter's expected gain if he plays the game (nearest $1)?



In the answer, they make a table for # of bullseye, Prize corresponding to that, and for 5X - 15, X is # of bullseyes. I don't understand where they get 5X-15 from, and then why they "adjust factors for X = 0,1,2,3,4" as they say.





ACTEX question on Expected gain from a game

Carolina should have gone for the first down

4 and short, down 37-34, under 3 to go in OT, on the CIN 18.



You have Cam Newton --- go for it. Go for the win ... kicking the field goal is basically conceding the win, hoping for a tie at best.





Carolina should have gone for the first down

Peppermint Patty goes to a non-denominational evangelical church

I went to a small, non-denominational, evangelical church today with a friend.



Services started at 9:30, and she suggested we meet outside the church at 9:25. That was plenty of time to have our choice of seats in the cross-shaped sanctuary, which held perhaps 140. Despite that, the place was nearly full when the service started a few minutes later. People were dressed casually, mostly in neat jeans and "business casual" tops. I saw one sweatshirt and one suit jacket. As people filed in, the band (in the "top" of the cross) warmed up.



The band is quite good. The leader of the band is called the worship-leader, which seems appropriate, because the only prayers the congregation says are the songs. They project the words on the wall, and the songs are slow enough (and have enough repetition) that everyone can join in. Most do, although most sing quietly.



The service started with a few songs, most of which I, as a Jew, was comfortable singing. I think there were four, and I left out one line of one song, skipped one song, and sang all of the other 2. The imagery was different from what I am used to. There was more visceral, or vaguely sexual imagery relating to God ("God, have your way in me", some other stuff I can't remember verbatim) than at most services I've been to. I also noticed that they prayed "May I give God my spirit", where we (Jews) would say "My spirit belongs to God" (so let me try to do the right things with it...).



Then the pastor, who had been sitting in a pew near the front, got up and welcomed us all to the church. He specifically welcomed visitors, and said that visitors should not feel like they had to contribute to the offering. (My friend had said the same thing to me when we were settling in. So I didn't contribute, although I felt a little odd about that.) He made some announcements, mostly about fellowship and ministry. There was a push for people to sign up for a couples program, and some stuff about some youth programs. Then he introduced a woman who was obviously well-known to the congregation, and she talked about the logistics of their Christmas shoe-box program this year. (The church puts together shoeboxes of Christmas gifts for needy children, which are sent around the world.)



After that, the woman prayed for the success of the various ministries, as the congregation bowed their heads and offered an "amen".



Then there was an offering, which started with a prayer for how the offering would be used, and its hoped-for success. Only the leader spoke, but again, the congregation bowed and offered an amen. The band led another song, and a couple of guys walked through the congregation with collection plates. The guy who walked by me paused long enough that I could have given, but not so long as to be awkward that I didn't. A lot of congregants give on-line, and perhaps half put something in the plate.



The church offers communion, but only on the first Sunday of the months, so that wasn't part of this service.



Then the pastor delivered his sermon. This was the focal point of the service, and took about half of the total time. As he spoke, the band left the stage discretely, and came around and joined the congregation from the back of the room.



He sermon was focused on a handful of verses from Romans, and he talked about pride and humility, and how even people will low self esteem benefit from Christian humility. He talked about how we live in a consumer culture, and some people come to "get" a service, but we ought to be part of the body of the church, through Christ. He talked about the importance of taking on ministry, and joining the "small groups" the church organizes. I would have called the "small groups" study groups or classes. This church offers a wide range of small groups that meet to study and discuss various scripture-inspired topics. Some are for men, some for women, and some are mixed-sex.



One part of the sermon that interested me was that he talked about how we each have a measure of faith, and that measure varies from person to person, and it is a gift from God, and we should not be proud or ashamed of the measure we were given. He illustrated this with a set of measuring cups. :-) But I think it is a profound truth that is not always recognized that different people have varying degrees of religiosity, and this may be the first time I've heard anyone talk about that from the pulpit.



After the sermon, the band came forward from the pews, and led a final song, after which the pastor gave a benediction as the congregation again bowed. We were all invited to coffee afterwards. The pastor walked out slowly, and greeted most of the congregants, as well as me.



My friend introduced me to several people there and we went to the coffee. I didn't actually notice any coffee, but there was a wide variety of tasty pot-luck baked goods in a room that had advertisements for the various small groups posted on the walls. (there was probably coffee, too. I didn't actually look for it.) I met a few more people, and talked with some of them about the small groups, and about my background before heading home. Everyone invited me to come back. My friend also invited me to come to a small group with her. I pointed out that that sounded like a commitment, and not like consuming a service. She suggested that while it is a commitment for members, it might not have to be for a guest, so perhaps I will do that.





Peppermint Patty goes to a non-denominational evangelical church

Resume Upload Troubleshooting

Hi Actuaries. I'm trying to post my resume for critique, however, every time I attempt to upload the file, I keep getting the message "Upload of File Failed". I have tried 3 different types of accepted files, as well as 2 different web browsers.



I could copy paste my resume information onto a post, but I'd rather have formatting and view critiqued as well.



Any assistance would be greatly appreciated!





Resume Upload Troubleshooting

Curried actuaries

Inspired by posts 95, 96, 99 and 101 of this thread:



http://ift.tt/1swtJkH



Just curious. Do you like curry?





Curried actuaries

Turns out Ebola can spread in hospitals

A health-care worker who treated the man who died of Ebola has tested positive for Ebloa, despite wearing protective gear all the time. Although this doesn't prove that Ebola is a widespread threat, surely it contradicts a lot of what we've been told about how hard it is for the virus to spread, and how safe we all are because we have masks and stuff in our hospitals.



http://ift.tt/1p43coE



A Texas health care worker who was in full protective gear when they provided hospital care for an Ebola patient who later died has tested positive for the virus and is in stable condition, health officials said Sunday. If the preliminary diagnosis is confirmed, it would be the first known case of the disease being contracted or transmitted in the U.S.



Dr. Daniel Varga, of the Texas Health Resources, said during a news conference Sunday that the worker wore a gown, gloves, mask and shield when they provided care to Thomas Eric Duncan during his second visit to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital. Varga did not identify the worker and says the family of the worker has "requested total privacy."





Turns out Ebola can spread in hospitals

Variable Payout Annuities having Life Contingencies

I've been told this is an obscure topic, but it came up on the Spring 2014 exam, so I decided to spend the time deciphering what the GAAP book has to say about how to calculate mortality margins. I finally figured it out by trying to do it myself, and then verifying that the GAAP book does it the same way (see attached spreadsheet).



In the Spring 2014 exam problem, there is a non-zero expected mortality margin in 2014 when calculated at the end of 2013. The GAAP book develops the mortality margin from the perspective that pricing mortality is used to calculate the annual payment, which implies that expected mortality margins equal zero. However, it is still possible to have a non-zero expected mortality margin if there is a mortality assumption update after the product is priced.



That's just one of many confusing aspects of the GAAP book's treatment of this subject. Hopefully, my spreadsheet sheds some light on all of this. But beware of spending too much time on this. It would be strange if the SOA asked another such question in the Fall sitting, wouldn't it?



Incidentally, it looks at first glance like the model solution to question 5c calculates the account value released on death differently from my spreadsheet. That's just because the expected account balance in the model solution is conditioned on the policy remaining inforce. My spreadsheet is actually consistent with the model solution.



:spnner:




Attached Files





File Type: xlsx Variable_Payout_Annuity.xlsx (43.2 KB)







Variable Payout Annuities having Life Contingencies

Why Privacy Matters: A TED Talk by Glenn Greenwald

As the thread title says, here's an interesting response to the "why should I care about government snooping, I have nothing to hide?" question from Glenn Greenwald:



http://ift.tt/1sB9W2w





Why Privacy Matters: A TED Talk by Glenn Greenwald

Stuck on choosing the right company

I know everyone has their own values and priorities, with that said, I'd be glad to hear what you think.



Where I'm at: two offers for entry-level position. I've negotiated the same salary from both companies, benefit package are comparable. Recent grad. A California resident and lover.



Company A: (better financially)

Cons:

-It's southeast. Never been. I'll always think about coming back to CA.

-Humidity, ice...etc

-Been reading A LOT about the culture of the city, don't think it's my piece of pie.

Pros:

-enjoyed talking with all my interviewers on the phone; all are nice and affable; -My boss will be my friend who's also very nice and professional;

-Low cost of living. Could be easy for me to save money, pay off my debt. Live in better apartment with half of what it costs here.

-I THINK I can learn a wider spectrum of things in this company



Company B:

Cons:

-While many are very nice, some coworkers-to-be came across as indifferent at the interview, which I can understand because they probably know that they have little say in the hiring decision. It's up to the bosses.

-At least double the rent. Can say goodbye to saving up for a while. (I don't have an extravagant lifestyle, and would like to know if shit happens to me I'd have financial backup)

-Study reimbursement doesn't kick in until half a year working for the company

Pros:

-CALIFORNIA!! Beach, sunshine, and beach! More comfortable here

-Higher employee discount on stocks...for however much that matters, since I don't know if I'll have money left for stocks



My friend/could-be-boss did say during the offer that they have an office in CA and if I'm interested and good in the future there's a possibility for a transfer. I didn't dig too much on this subject because I don't want to sound like I'm not enthusiastic about working in his office, which I am.



Location vs work environment & finance, really





Stuck on choosing the right company

Is actuarial job boring?

Hi there,



I have heard a lot of people saying that actuarial job is boring and it's like accounting but involves a little more math. Is it true at all?



ps. I'm a pure math/stat who are choosing career path.





Is actuarial job boring?

Islam is DIFFERENT:"role model for all time" Mohammed "beheaded,raped+had child sex"?

I suspect that most non Muslims here on the AO will not know about the above (I didn't until a few months ago), but once you do, it does seem to explain a lot of the problems within Islamic countries and different Islamic groups. In conversation, some Muslims have been unaware of this too.



Disclaimer: I'm not saying that other religions or indeed secular societies are perfect. I've been (and still am) very critical of Catholicism, Baptists, born-again Christianity, Scientology, Mormonism, Jehovah's witnesses, orthodox Judaism, Hinduism, the caste system in India, and similarly the excesses carried out by some atheists including Stalin and Mao. If you want to say "well other faiths or non faiths do bad things too" may I make a plea that you either put that in another thread, or make that only a small part of your arguments in this thread please?



My goal in this thread is to have an evidence-based debate about the validity or otherwise of the question:



Is Islam fundamentally DIFFERENT from other religions because of traditional beliefs (held for many centuries) that its founder, prophet Mohammed (held out as the role model for all time for all Muslims) personally engaged in very controversial activities (i.e. he had people beheaded, had sex with at least 2 pre-teenage girls, and raped at least one sexual slave, and also possibly had at least one person tortured)?



What is the evidence for such claims?



You might be forgiven for thinking that such controversial claims about the life of Islam's founder are made up by Islam's detractors. Not so: they come from within Islam's traditional holy texts: the Quran, hadith (the reported sayings and teachings of Mohammed) and sira (early biographies of Mohammed).



Of course Mohammed may never have existed (the main written accounts of Mohammed were written many decades after his reported death in 632 AD), and there are similar doubts about the authenticity of the Quran (Islam's holy book) and the hadith. However, it seems that the both the Quran and the hadith became written down in largely stable form by the end of the 9th century (http://ift.tt/1eJseo0, with the Quran probably stabilised before that, but at least 2 decades after Mohammed's death [http://ift.tt/OzoH4r]).



Now of course, it may be that the Quran, hadith and sira contain significant mistakes in them, and are wrong in what they record about Mohammed's actions and views, and in particular with regard to the above controversial actions. If that is so, then the paradox arises: the Quran makes the grandiose claim that it is the perfect, final word of God. if anyone (particularly a Muslim) believes that the Quran and hadith contain such significant errors about Mohammed's actions and views, then surely they must concede that Mohammed was not the prophet and final messenger he claimed to be. If the Quran has severe flaws, why continue to believe in Islam? The only way to continue faith in Mohammed and Allah in such a situation is to believe things so fundamentally different from the main claims of Islam that such faith can no longer be truly said to be Islam, but some other religion?



Given the historical uncertainty about what actually happened, I suggest that the important thing is what the majority of Muslims seem to have believed in the early centuries about Mohammed. Those beliefs seem to be those which made it into the Quran and the hadith. (There are controversies about some of the hadith, but Bukhari's collection is said to be considered by most religious scholars as the most reliable - see http://ift.tt/1eJseo0).



Claim: Mohammed had sex with at least 2 pre-teenage girls - the evidence



Several of Bukhari's hadith confirm the traditional Islamic view that Mohammed married his third wife, Aisha, when she was 6 and consummated the marriage when she was 9. (See http://ift.tt/1sB9XUe).

For example:




Quote:








Sahih Bukhari 5.236.

Narrated Hisham's father:

Khadija died three years before the Prophet departed to Medina. He stayed there for two years or so and then he married 'Aisha when she was a girl of six years of age, and he consumed that marriage when she was nine years



At the time of consummation, Mohammed was believed to be 53 years of age.



Bukhari also relates that Mohammed saw a girl (Umaima bint Sharahil) in a garden with her wet nurse, so clearly a very young, and certainly pre-teenage girl, and "asked" her to marry him, although it sounds more like a command ("Give me yourself (in marriage) as a gift"). From the hadith, she seems not to have been too keen on this, but nevertheless the marriage went ahead:






Quote:








Narrated Abu Usaid:

We went out with the Prophet to a garden called Ash-Shaut till we reached two walls between which we sat down. The Prophet said, "Sit here," and went in (the garden). The Jauniyya (a lady from Bani Jaun) had been brought and lodged in a house in a date-palm garden in the home of Umaima bint An-Nu'man bin Sharahil, and her wet nurse was with her. When the Prophet entered upon her, he said to her, "Give me yourself (in marriage) as a gift." She said, "Can a princess give herself in marriage to an ordinary man?" The Prophet raised his hand to pat her so that she might become tranquil. She said, "I seek refuge with Allah from you." He said, "You have sought refuge with One Who gives refuge. Then the Prophet came out to us and said, "O Abu Usaid! Give her two white linen dresses to wear and let her go back to her family." Narrated Sahl and Abu Usaid: The Prophet married Umaima bint Sharahil, and when she was brought to him, he stretched his hand towards her. It seemed that she disliked that, whereupon the Prophet ordered Abu Usaid to prepare her and to provide her with two white linen dresses. (See Hadith No. 541).

(Source: http://ift.tt/1s6BriC)



Aside: I don't want to make too much of this, because the evidence is less clear, but let me explain why the claim refers to "at least 2 young girls". Given that both the above marriages where at Mohammed's instigation, and that he had more than 10 wives, plus several concubines and female sexual slaves, it is possible that other instances occurred.

There are other references in the hadith and biographies of Mohammed in which he sees young girls (even on one occasion a baby) and expresses the desire to marry them "when they grow up", eg:




Quote:








Suhayli, ii. 79: In the riwaya of Yunus I. I. recorded that the apostle saw her (Ummu'lFadl) when she was a baby crawling before him and said, 'If she grows up and I am still alive I will marry her.' But he died before she grew up and Sufyan b. al-Aswad b. 'Abdu'l-Asad al-Makhzumi married her and she bore him Rizq and Lubab

(Source: http://ift.tt/1s6BriE )



However, the 2 known examples seem enough to justify the claim.



Claim: Mohammed raped at least one woman - the evidence



There are several accounts of early Muslims taking the wives and children of defeated opponents as slaves, and in particular of taking the women (and given the above, possibly girls too) as sexual slaves.



The Quran (verse 4.24) justifies this by referring to sexual slaves as "those whom your right hand possesses" and saying that sex with them is lawful (not prohibited):




Quote:








And [also prohibited to you are all] married women except those your right hands possess. [This is] the decree of Allah upon you. And lawful to you are [all others] beyond these, [provided] that you seek them [in marriage] with [gifts from] your property, desiring chastity, not unlawful sexual intercourse. So for whatever you enjoy [of marriage] from them, give them their due compensation as an obligation. And there is no blame upon you for what you mutually agree to beyond the obligation. Indeed, Allah is ever Knowing and Wise.

(Source: http://quran.com/4/24)



Also:



Muhammad made it legal for his men to marry their slaves and the women they captured in war, giving them full marriage rights.[84][85] In addition, according to Muslim theologians, he made it lawful for male masters to have sexual relations with female captives and slaves;[86][87] according to Muhammad Al-Munajjid this is regardless of whether or not the slave woman gives her consent ("...a slave woman does not have the right to refuse her master’s requests unless she has a valid excuse. If she does that she is being disobedient and he has the right to discipline her in whatever manner he thinks is appropriate and is allowed in sharee’ah.").

(Source: http://ift.tt/1s6BriG)



According to traditional Islamic accounts, Mohammed himself had sexual slaves, including Rayhana bint Zayd, a Jewish woman whose husband was one of hundreds of Jews beheaded by Mohammed's armies in the Siege of Banu Qurazya. (See http://ift.tt/1sB9VLU).



See also:




Quote:








Abu ‘Ubaydah said: He had four (concubines): Mariyah, who was the mother of his son Ibraaheem; Rayhaanah; another beautiful slave woman whom he acquired as a prisoner of war; and a slave woman who was given to him by Zaynab bint Jahsh.

—Zaad al-Ma’aad, 1/114



Muhammad sent a letter to Muqawqis, summoning him to Islam, was answered evasively; but with his answer the ruler of Egypt sent a rich present of a thousand measures of gold, twenty robes of fine cloth, a mule, a she-ass and, as the crown of the gift, two Coptic Christian slave girls escorted by an elderly eunuch. The girls were sisters, Mariyah and Sirin, and both were beautiful, but Mariyah was exceptionally so, and the Prophet marvelled at her beauty. He gave Sirin to Hassan ibn Thabit, and lodged Mariyah in the nearby house where Safiyyah had lived before.

—Abu Bakar Sirajuddin, Muhammad: His Life Based on the Earliest Sources, LXXI/277-278



(Source: http://ift.tt/1pvzGNh)



Now what is sex with a sexual slave if not rape? Particularly in the case of Rayhana bint Zayd, whose husband had just been beheaded by Mohammed's army. (Another example, although less clear-cut seems to be that Mohammed married Saffiya bint Huyayy when she was 17 or 18, shortly after he had had her Jewish husband Kenana ibn al-Rabi beheaded. Sources: http://ift.tt/1sB9XUf and http://ift.tt/1s6Bue9).



(Aside: although Mohammed married both these young girls, can sex with Aisha and Umaima bint Sharahil have been said to be truly consensual? In each case, the girl is said to have exhibited some reluctance before the marriage. In any case, given that Mohammed is held out as the role model for all time, can young girls be genuinely said to consent to sex?).



Claim: Mohammed had people beheaded - the evidence



According to Ibn Ishaq's sira (biography of Mohammed) and other Muslim historians, upwards of 400 Jewish men (included in this number were any boys who had pubic hair) were beheaded by Mohammed's army (with his approval, and in some accounts Mohammed personally beheaded some of the victims), at the end of the siege of the Jewish Banu Qurazya tribe. This wasn't at the end of a battle in which the tribe had been actively fighting Mohammed's army, but instead they were accused of treason because their leaders had entered into negotiations with Mohammed's Meccan enemies.



Not only were all the men (and boys who had reached puberty) beheaded, but the women and children were enslaved, and their property confiscated by Mohammed's Muslim army.



(Source: http://ift.tt/1pehVAq)



The treatment of the tribe seems exceptionally harsh. Yes, Mohammed and his fellow Muslims were at war, but it was the leaders who had entered into talks with the enemy: it that was treason, why punish the whole tribe, rather than just the leaders?



Claim: Mohammed had people tortured - the evidence (weaker)



The evidence of Mohammed personally ordering torture is not strong on its own, as it comes from Ibn Ishaq's sira (biography of Mohammed), which was criticised by his contemporary, Malik ibn Ana on the grounds that they were based on accounts by sons of Jewish converts.

According to Ibn Ishaq:




Quote:








Kenana al-Rabi, who had the custody of the treasure of Banu Nadir, was brought to the apostle who asked him about it. He denied that he knew where it was. A Jew came (Tabari says "was brought"), to the apostle and said that he had seen Kenana going round a certain ruin every morning early. When the apostle said to Kenana, "Do you know that if we find you have it I shall kill you?" He said "Yes". The apostle gave orders that the ruin was to be excavated and some of the treasure was found. When he asked him about the rest he refused to produce it, so the apostle gave orders to al-Zubayr Al-Awwam, "Torture him until you extract what he has." So he kindled a fire with flint and steel on his chest until he was nearly dead. Then the apostle delivered him to Muhammad b. Maslama and he struck off his head, in revenge for his brother Mahmud.

(Source: http://ift.tt/1s6Bue9)



However, another account, from Al-Talabari states:


Quote:








The Prophet gave orders concerning Kinanah to Zubayr, saying, ‘Torture him until you root out and extract what he has. So Zubayr kindled a fire on Kinanah’s chest, twirling it with his firestick until Kinanah was near death. Then the Messenger gave him to Maslamah, who beheaded him. -- Al-Tabari, Vol. 8, p. 122

(Source: http://ift.tt/1s6Bue9)



Also, there are various verses in the Quran and hadith which indicate that very cruel punishments are considered acceptable in islam, for example:



Burning people who had not answered the summons to prayer:


Quote:








From Bukhari hadith: Volume 1, Book 11, Number 626:

Narrated Abu Huraira:



The Prophet said, "No prayer is harder for the hypocrites than the Fajr and the 'Isha' prayers and if they knew the reward for these prayers at their respective times, they would certainly present themselves (in the mosques) even if they had to c awl." The Prophet added, "Certainly I decided to order the Mu'adh-dhin (call-maker) to pronounce Iqama and order a man to lead the prayer and then take a fire flame to burn all those who had not left their houses so far for the prayer along with their houses."

(Source: http://ift.tt/1sB9Yas)



A hundred lashes for sex outside marriage


Quote:








Quran 24:2

The [unmarried] woman or [unmarried] man found guilty of sexual intercourse - lash each one of them with a hundred lashes, and do not be taken by pity for them in the religion of Allah , if you should believe in Allah and the Last Day. And let a group of the believers witness their punishment.

(Source: http://quran.com/24/2)



Terrible torture for unbelievers in the afterlife:


Quote:








Quran 22:19 to 22:22

These are two adversaries who have disputed over their Lord. But those who disbelieved will have cut out for them garments of fire. Poured upon their heads will be scalding water.

By which is melted that within their bellies and [their] skins.

And for [striking] them are maces of iron.

Every time they want to get out of Hellfire from anguish, they will be returned to it, and [it will be said], "Taste the punishment of the Burning Fire!"

(Source: http://quran.com/22/19 to http://quran.com/22/22)



Is all this evidence unreliable? If so why, and why did it go unchallenged by Muslims for so many centuries? (Note: in recent years, namely in the 20th and 21st centuries, some Muslim commentators have argued that the early texts were mistaken about Aisha's age, but this seems to be a very recent view in reaction to criticism from non Muslims, and seems contradicted by various other hadith to the effect that Aisha still played with dolls during her marriage to Mohammed).



If the evidence is reliable that such beliefs about Mohammed have been held by most Muslims for centuries, isn't the conclusion that the founder of Islam was a very controversial figure, to say the least?





PS: evidence for the Muslim belief that Mohammed is the role model for all time for Muslims:


Quote:








There has certainly been for you in the Messenger of Allah an excellent pattern for anyone whose hope is in Allah and the Last Day and [who] remembers Allah often.

(Source http://quran.com/33/21. See also http://ift.tt/1sB9VM1)








Islam is DIFFERENT:"role model for all time" Mohammed "beheaded,raped+had child sex"?
 

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