RIP 2014

mercredi 31 décembre 2014

Remember this is an RIP thread. If you have something bad to say about 2014, do it in another thread.



2014, thank you for 365 days!





RIP 2014

Tail Factor

Could you please elaborate how to derive Tail Factor by using Exponential Extrapolation method ? or can introduce book or article ?





Tail Factor

I don't want to spoil the surprise you guys...

...but, so far, 2015 is a lot like 2014.





I don't want to spoil the surprise you guys...

Duration Applications

Given that in FM we learn that duration and convexity are used to measure impacts of changes in interest rates..but approximate changes



Could someone give me a little flavor in why this would ever be used over just calculating price changes exactly over different ranges of interest rates?





Duration Applications

IBNR and Plan Design Changes

Say we have a 36 x 36 month claim lag triangle through November 2014, and there was a plan design change effective January 1, 2014 resulting in a .95 impact to claims going forward. Why exactly would we want to adjust claims prior to January 1, 2014 to today's level (.95 impact), since if a claim was incurred prior to January 2014, it should be paid under the plan provisions prior to the plan design change, regardless if the run-out carries into 2014? So, if all claims prior to January 2014 are multiplied by the .95 factor, wouldn't we be underestimating the IBNR for those months prior to January 2014 that are not fully complete?





IBNR and Plan Design Changes

Calling out AO Fitness Gurus

to design a workout & diet plan for me.



Current physique:

Age: 28

Weight: 172 pounds

Height: 5'9"

Body fat: 22%



Goals:

In two months,

1) reach 12% body fat

2) gain as much strength as I could

3) that's it



Experience:

3 months. So I had 6 sessions with this professional trainer but I don't wanna pay him anymore. He had my do squats, bench, deadlifts, burpees, rope slams, T-bar row, lat pulldown, tricep pushdown, hammer curls, step ups, leg extension, different kinds of abs exercises etc. 3-4 sets of 8-10 reps, very heavy weight.



Basically, I didn't mention small/misc exercises here. So you may have got the basic idea that he was focusing on strength gaining exercises together with losing fat.



Questions

1) What type of exercises should I do for the next 2 months?

2) How many days per week should I work out?

3) What kind of diet plan should I adopt?

4) Any other thoughts? (this point is important)



I know its almost year-end but I wanna start from today and don't wanna be one of those people who start doing things as new year resolutions. Thanks a bunch in advance!





Calling out AO Fitness Gurus

hobo vs. actuary

pros of actuary

1. Get that money stuff people seem to go crazy over

2. Wear cool, fashionable clothes, sometimes ranging in the $1000's of dollars.

3. Can buy comfortable, high-thread count underwear.

4. Can afford a nice Toyota.

5. Sit in air-conditioned office sipping on water and enjoying life.



cons of actuary

1. Can't yell random things at people on the street

2. Random drug checks

3. Have to understand what other people are saying to you and have coherent speech.

4. Can't be drunk at the office.

5. Have to maintain hygiene and use bathroom to relieve oneself



Pros of hobo

1. no responsibility or pressure for anything

2. can maintain a solid buzz all the time

3. no need to apply yourself

4. could transition into a career as a criminal or street performer depending on the skill set you develop at current position.



cons of hobo

1. most people won't be your friend or respect you

2. probably won't experience mutual love with something other than a dog

3. could get hungry and cold and wonder where it all went wrong

4. shorter life expectancy



Am I missing anything?





hobo vs. actuary

E-Learning Website Crash?

Anyone struggling to access the elearning website? I try to log in under the SoA website and it's taking me a page that says My SOA, which when I click on brings back a blank page.





E-Learning Website Crash?

Case Study

Anyone have a good link to the case study?



I have printed off all the required readings, ordered a study manual & SOA study notes, but can't seem to get the link to the case study to work.





Case Study

2015 Resolutions

1. No more drinking

2. Pass an FSA exam

3. No more posting

4. No more soda





2015 Resolutions

Vice Presidents and Banking?

I was looking through a friend's LinkedIn and it seems like all his colleagues are VPs. They all look like fairly recent college grads. Is it a banking thing to name everyone a VP after 4-5 years experience?





Vice Presidents and Banking?

Should a person's history be an excuse for later behavior?

If a kid grows up in an abusive home, and grows up to commit a violent crime - is the history an excuse for said behavior?





What about if a cop deals with violence every day at work - is that an excuse for the cop to use violence?





Seems like many americans say no to the first part and yes to the 2nd. Even though the cop chose his position - the former didn't.





Cops suck.

And americans suck for letting them get away with it.





Should a person's history be an excuse for later behavior?

Question on Duncan calculation

On page 169 of Duncan, I have a question about Table 8.2. For program #2, when they calculate marginal net savings for the first 100 chronic members, they calculate it as (150,000- 50,000)/100. Where does the 150,000 come from?



I have a similar question for the next box down. The marginal net savings per chronic members for the next 400 members is (250,000 - 200,000)/400. Where does the 250,000 come from?



Thanks.





Question on Duncan calculation

Cape Cod - Decay and Trend Factors

Hello,



I am trying to get into the IBNR Cape Cod method but still can't figure some details.



What does the decay factor stands for?



And, how can I estimate both trend and decay factors?





Cape Cod - Decay and Trend Factors

Analytics Strategist – Midwest USA – Candidate w/ strong Predictive Modeling experien

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | P&C Jobs



National P&C insurer seeks an individual with strong business acumen and predictive modeling experience to solve business-level problems through better use of data and analytics. This position is part of the analytics group but will require frequent interactions with various business units. This person does not need to be an Actuary, but have experience with predictive analytics in an insurance setting. (#43665)







Apply at http://ift.tt/1iPhglC OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/14dgBY3






Analytics Strategist – Midwest USA – Candidate w/ strong Predictive Modeling experien

100 4's

Can you express every number using 100 4's?



4 example:





4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+ 4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+ 4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+ 4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4+4= 400





100 4's

Food and getting older

The older i get - the more foods i get sick of.

I think that if i live long enough i will just starve to death.



Breakfast - I am SOOOOOOOOO sick of eggs and bacon - but there is nothing else that sounds good. So I buy bacon and eggs. And don't eat it. And am hungry. Until lunch - but i am sick of all that chit too.





Food and getting older

New Years Goals

I'm interested at what other actuaries have as goals for the new year. Please respond with the following:



1) Years of experience



2) Your career goal for 2015





------------------------------------





1) 0 (started full-time this week)



2) My goals are to pass C in February, get through my FAP modules, take my stat VEE, and become an ASA by 2016. Additionally, I would like to learn my role at my company and find ways to improve processes.





New Years Goals

Senior Analyst – Midwest USA – Student/ACAS w/ SAS skills (#43667)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | P&C Jobs



Primary and commercial line insurance company in Illinois seeks Student-ACAS for pricing and predictive modeling focused role.* Will work directly with Chief Actuary. Candidate must have experience using SAS and other statistical software. (#43667)







Apply at http://ift.tt/1iPhglC OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at http://ift.tt/14dgz25






Senior Analyst – Midwest USA – Student/ACAS w/ SAS skills (#43667)

Selling 11th edition ASM Manual

ASM for FM (11th ed).. No writing or highlighting in either. Guarantee that it just looks like new. Asking $83 for FM I prefer using paypal. Shipping is free.



PM me if interested. Thanks





Selling 11th edition ASM Manual

Interest Due and Accrued

Ref Odomirok text pg 44



If net investment income is to be recorded on an accrual basis why don't we simply use the interest accrued (i.e. Earned) during the period instead of doing interest received + change in interest due and accrued?



Say we receive interest payment today for interest that was due in the prior year, isn't treating this as current year income incorrect? Moreover, if this interest was due and accrued in the prior year, aren't we double counting by considering the interest received as income in the current year and the change in interest due and accrued as income in the prior year?





Interest Due and Accrued

Discrete-time model

I got a low on this part for november sittings, so i would like to ask what is categorized under discrete-time model?





Discrete-time model

Should We Stop Teaching Calculus In High School?

Ran into this [perhaps old-news] article today. Emphases added. Link: http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensa...n-high-school/


Quote:








Math education needs a reboot. Kids today are growing up into a world awash in data, and they need new skills to make sense of it all.



The list of high school math courses in the U.S. hasn’t changed for decades. My daughters are taking the same courses I took long ago: algebra, geometry, trigonometry, and calculus. These are all fine subjects, but they don’t serve the needs of the 21st century.



What math courses do young people really need? Two subjects are head-smackingly obvious: computer science and statistics. Most high schools don’t offer either one. In the few schools that do, they are usually electives that only a few students take. And besides, the math curriculum is already so full that some educators have argued for scaling back. Some have even argued for getting rid of algebra, as Andrew Hacker argued in the NY Times not long ago.



So here’s a simple fix: get rid of high school calculus to make way for computer programming and statistics.



Computers are an absolute mystery to most non-geeks, but it doesn’t have to be that way. A basic computer programming class requires little more than a familiarity with algebra. With computers controlling so much of their lives, from their phones to their cars to the online existence, we ought to teach our kids what’s going on under the hood. And programming will teach them a form of logical reasoning that is missing from the standard math curriculum.



With data science emerging as one of the hottest new scientific areas, a basic understanding of statistics will provide the foundation for a wide range of 21st century career paths. Not to mention that a grasp of statistics is essential for navigating the often-dubious claims of health benefits offered by various “alternative” medicine providers.



(While we’re at it, we should require more statistics in the pre-med curriculum. Doctors are faced with new medical science every day, and statistical evidence is the most common form of proof that a new treatment is effective. With so much bad science out there (just browse through my archive for many examples), doctors need better statistical knowledge to separate the wheat from the chaff.)



Convincing schools to give up calculus won’t be easy. I imagine that most math educators will scream in protest at the mere suggestion, in fact. In their never-ending competition to look good on a blizzard of standardized tests, schools push students to accelerate in math starting in elementary school, and they offer calculus as early as the tenth grade. This doesn’t serve students well: the vast majority will never use calculus again. And those who do need it – future engineers, physicists, and the like – can take it in college.



Colleges need to adjust their standards too. They can start by announcing that high school programming and statistics courses will be just as important as calculus in admissions decisions. If just a few top universities would take the lead, our high schools would sit up and take notice.



We can leave calculus for college. Colleges teach calculus well, and 18-year-old freshmen are ready for it. Every major university in the country has multiple freshman calculus courses, and they usually have separate courses designed for science-bound and humanities students. Many students who take high school calculus have to re-take it in college anyway, because the high school courses don’t cover quite the same material.



Let’s get rid of high school calculus and start teaching young students the math skills they really need.



Thoughts?





Should We Stop Teaching Calculus In High School?

We love you Listy!!!!!!!!!!!

YAP!!!! :bighug: :bighug: :bighug: :bighug: :ht:





We love you Listy!!!!!!!!!!!

Play in 6NT?

One of my students asked me about the bidding, having erred by stopping in 5NT, and I converted it into a play problem in 6NT. Opening lead is spade 8.



Dummy: AKQTx. x. Jxx. Jxxx



Declarer: J9. AKxx. AKT9. AQx



Careful now, if you win in dummy and win a finesse, then reenter dummy in spades, you risk 5-1 spades. Maybe that's acceptable but is there anything better? I think so.





Play in 6NT?

Do you read things on the toilet?

I honestly just don't understand this. Do you go to the washroom before your body tells you it's time, and then, just like sit there reading things, waiting for it to happen? Is your body that broken?





Do you read things on the toilet?

SSAP 62 Required Terms for Retro Reinsurance Agreements

Paragraph 8 of SSAP 62:



e. With respect to retroactive reinsurance agreements, the following additional conditions apply:

i. The consideration to be paid by the ceding entity for the retroactive reinsurance must be a sum certain stated in the agreement;

ii. Direct or indirect compensation to the ceding entity or reinsurer is prohibited;



....




Anyone happens to know what "Direct or indirect compensation" refers to and what ii exactly means?





SSAP 62 Required Terms for Retro Reinsurance Agreements

Calculators allowed for exam P

mardi 30 décembre 2014

Does anybody know if the calculators allowed displayed on the SOA website are the only calculators that are allowed in the exam room? I have one that's from my university and it's just a 2 line display calculator, so it's pretty simple. Would I be allowed to use that?





Calculators allowed for exam P

I ate some lunch today

I am just gonna start a thread about everything that ever happens to me.





I ate some lunch today

Had a dude flip me off on the road today

because i rode his ass for awhile when he drove like a dipsh*t





what's the best way to react?





i just flipped him off in return



maybe i should have waved at him to pull over so we could fight?





Had a dude flip me off on the road today

How many ways can you wear 5 rings on 4 fingers?

My discrete math professor put that on a final once and no one got it right. So she gave us that problem before the final, saying it might be on there. (It was not). In class, we all got it wrong on our first guess. She finally told us the answer is a lot higher than 2000. Then I figured it out. Have fun.





How many ways can you wear 5 rings on 4 fingers?

ISIS using barbaric device to torture breastfeeding mothers



Quote:








A barbaric, bear trap-like device called a “biter” was used by ISIS to torture a breastfeeding mother in Syria, a report said Tuesday.



The 24-year-old new mom, referred to as Batol to conceal her identity, was walking through the city of Raqqa when she was snatched up by the Islamic State’s all-female police squad — the notorious al-Khansa brigade, the Daily Mail reports.



“‘I was in the market buying a few items when Khansa battalion came and arrested me on the grounds that the niqab [Islamic face covering] which I was wearing does not meet Sharia requirement because it was transparent,” she said. “[T]hey took me to the ‘Hesba’ headquarters in the city, and escorted me to the torture chamber, then they asked me to choose between a whip or a ‘biter.’



“I did not know what a ‘biter’ was and I thought it is a reduced sentence,” she added. “I was afraid of whipping, so I choose the ‘biter.'”



“They brought a sharp object that has a lot of teeth and held me, placing it on my chest and pressing it strongly,” she said. “I screamed from pain and I was badly injured. They later took me to the hospital.”





Fighters from the Islamic State group parade in Raqqa.

Photo: AP

The horrifying details were obtained by anti-ISIS media group “Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently,” according to the Daily Mail.



“I felt then that my femininity has been destroyed completely,” Batol continued. “We no longer afford to live this way, I was not the only one that was tortured with this instrument, there were a lot of women in the headquarters and their situation was tragic.”



The al-Khansa brigade has become infamous for its savagery in recent months after countless British women who joined the ISIS insurgency began boasting about their membership on social media. The group bragged about handing out merciless beatings, severe lashings, managing sex slaves and ordering executions, according to the Daily Mail.



Even though Batol’s claims could not be verified, the account matches stories that other people have told about the al-Khansa extremists’ behavior.



http://nypost.com/2014/12/30/isis-us...eding-mothers/





:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:





ISIS using barbaric device to torture breastfeeding mothers

Baked Potatoes

With just a lil' pepper and sea salt



Good or bad?, talk to me. Thanks





Baked Potatoes

Fellow mathctuaries, here's a problem for you



Quote:








Wile E. Coyote just got a shipment of an infinite number of bombs, and he's ready to blow up the Road Runner once and for all. However, the rules of the game this time around are a bit different from the usual.



You see, this world is one dimensional, so the Road Runner only runs in a straight line. Also, the world is discrete, and everything has integer values. The Road Runner starts at an integer location and moves at a constant integer velocity. Since time is also discrete, the Road Runner warps from his current location to his next location every second, instead of running continuously on the line.



The problem for Wile E. Coyote is that he doesn't know the Road Runner's velocity or starting location, but he can fire one bomb at any location, every second.



Devise a strategy for Wile E. Coyote that, given an infinite amount of time, assures that he will finally be able to blow up the Road Runner.







:sg:





Fellow mathctuaries, here's a problem for you

ALL10 Exam 5 Study Manual for sale(2014fall version).

ALL10 Exam 5 Study Manual(2014fall version).Like new.



5 binded manuals in total. Study Manuals and ALL10 created practice exams.



I would like $100 + shipping.



Please PM if interested.





ALL10 Exam 5 Study Manual for sale(2014fall version).

Exhibit of Net Investment Income

TIA notes state that Exhibit of Net Investment Income divides investment income from bonds into Interest received during the year, interest due and accrued, current years amortization/ accretion and interest paid for accrued interest on dividends...



I am looking at the Liberty Mutual Combined Annual statement (attached) and it doesn't seem to follow the description above (or does it?!) - what could I be missing?



http://www.libertymutualgroup.com/om...56795162&ln=en



I am referring to pg 13 of the 2013 combined statement pdf





Exhibit of Net Investment Income

four 4's

using only four 4s, list out as many integers as a function of them (you can repeat symbols)



for example



4/4+4/4 = 2



4-4^(4-4) = 3



....



keep going until you exhaust all integers in the universe.



current progress: 26





four 4's

How were you feeling 3 years into the field?

I am stepping into my third year in a P&C firm and am reflecting a bit (and setting some work-related new year resolutions). I had no prior experience when I first started, so naturally I have "learned a lot" in the past 3 years. I was off to a slow start in year one, but have came to learn different actuarial methods for reserving and pricing. That said when I see the knowledge of other actuarial students (exam candidates with similar work experience as I) on the AO or in rare occasions when I get to speak to others outside of work, I find myself knowing very little beyond the basics. The basics/fundamentals that I do know, I don't know them inside out.



I have been more determined recently to put more thoughts into my work, and to expand my knowledge by reading more actuarial literature both to learn and to motivate myself. Hopefully my determination will continue; otherwise I may soon find actuarial work to be entirely meaningless and will merely be going through the process when working.



Anyway, I am wondering what others have accomplished three years into their first actuarial position. Did you find yourself starting much stronger? Did you feel unaccomplished the same way that I did?





How were you feeling 3 years into the field?

Where to buy dress pants?

I realize this thread may seem out of place here, rather than in NAT. But the reason I'm asking the question has to do with my increasingly large legs, which resulted from squats and other leg workouts.



For work, I've mainly purchased Jos A Bank pants in the Signature line. But they're getting pretty tight on me, especially when sitting.



Recommendations?





Where to buy dress pants?

Salary+Bonus for people with no direct report

Definition for no direct reports: not having to do performance valuation for him/her/them.





Salary+Bonus for people with no direct report

2015 Vegas - When will you be there?

Cohete will keep this thread updated so post your trip dates when you know them. Hoping to make it out there during the WSOP this summer. Looking at end of June right now.



AO'er -- Trip Date(s) 2015:





2015 Vegas - When will you be there?

Who Hears a Case When Judges File a Lawsuit?

http://news.yahoo.com/california-jud...7--sector.html



(Reuters) - A group of judges is suing California's public pension system Calpers and the state of California over claims their pension contributions have been almost doubled unlawfully.



Under state pay grades, the six California Superior Court judges each earn more than $181,000 a year. The lawsuit filed on Dec. 23 says their pension contributions should be lowered by about $13,000 a year.



The six, who were elected in 2012, claim a pension reform law signed by Governor Jerry Brown which took effect Jan. 1, 2013 has raised their pension contributions to 15 percent from 8 percent of their salary. They say the 8 percent contribution was set in stone and should not have been raised by the new law retrospectively.



The California Public Employees Retirement System, or Calpers, said the lawsuit was so recently filed it was too early to comment on it. Calpers is America's biggest public pension fund, managing assets of $300 billion.



Last January, a former California appeals court judge sued on behalf of 1,600 judges. He contends that California judges are owed pension increases and back pay because their salaries, frozen for five years, did not keep pace with increases to other state workers under state law.



If that lawsuit prevails it could wipe out a $97 million reduction in the state's pension liability that had been gleaned from lower state salaries for other employers, according to Calpers's chief actuary Alan Milligan in comments made earlier this year.



Judges in both lawsuits have sued defendants including Calpers and John Chiang, the California state controller. A spokesman for Chiang said the controller was named in the lawsuits because his office processes the pension payments, but that Chiang had no role in calculating the payments.



The judges' action was earlier reported by legal news service the Courthouse News Service.





Who Hears a Case When Judges File a Lawsuit?

Orbitz sues website for "Hidden Ticketing"

I thought this story was interesting - I first heard about the website through a Reddit AMA the creator did maybe a month ago.



United, Orbitz Sue Travel Site Over ‘Hidden City’ Tickets


Quote:








Originally Posted by Bloomberg

United Airlines Inc. (UAL) and Orbitz Worldwide LLC sued to prevent the travel website Skiplagged.com from helping consumers buy what the companies call improper “hidden city” plane tickets that undercut their sales.



Skiplagged helps travelers find cheap airfares by enabling them to book multistop flights and deplane before the flights reach their as-booked final destination. Sometimes a fare that travels through a hub city to another location can be cheaper than a ticket to the hub city alone.



“In its simplest form, a passenger purchases a ticket from city A to city B to city C but does not travel beyond city B,” according to the companies’ complaint. “‘Hidden City’ ticketing is strictly prohibited by most commercial airlines because of logistical and public-safety concerns.”




I think it is funny that Orbitz - a site that is supposed to help consumers - is one of the parties that is suing.





Orbitz sues website for "Hidden Ticketing"

FA 1/9 - 1/12

Wondering if anyone is interested in working together for the FA during this time frame? We could set up a Google group and get this started. Power in numbers!





FA 1/9 - 1/12

repeat passed course

I am debating whether I should repeat an otherwise passed course just to raise my cumulative average? Would employers look down upon it or do they just care about cumulative.





repeat passed course

Simple Slot Machine Probability

A Slot machine with 3 slots has each reel contains number 1~9.



you get double the betting amount if the number you choose is showed up on each reel



i.e. if you bet 100 and choose "2", when slot stops at 2-3-2, you get 400.





Do this machine has ultimate winning strategy?





Simple Slot Machine Probability

Twin Cinema

lundi 29 décembre 2014

makes me long for that brief period of time when there existed some weak bonds or whatever they are called





Flaggie Scorp Happy Jackie Raschke Barry Jables ded ded ded ded Kohl





A Parade! Green hats with blue feathers!!! Mr. Watson!!!







sing me spanish techno...







:cry: :crying:





:cry:





Twin Cinema

SELLING ASM FM 11th edition

ASM for FM (11th ed).. No writing or highlighting in either. Guarantee that it just looks like new. Asking $90 for FM I prefer using paypal.



PM me if interested. Thanks :tup:





SELLING ASM FM 11th edition

ASB approves second draft of Modeling ASOP

Comments seem to have led to several changes. I think they are improvements.





ASB approves second draft of Modeling ASOP

12/29/2014 Swiss teams

Played a GNT Swiss at the club this afternoon with Toby and the Olssons. In our first round we came up against two husband and wife pairs, and I'd say the average masterpoint holding per person was 1,500 - 2,000.



Over seven boards we rang up a mind-bending 77-0 score! :eek:



We were

30-0 in round 2,

3-28 in round 3, and

38-4 in round 4, finishing 2nd overall.





12/29/2014 Swiss teams

just got netflix

What should I watch. Assume I've watched nothing but LOST, the middle, survivor, and modern family in the past 10 years.



I've heard hero's was good. Just started watching breaking bad.





just got netflix

Is fast food more prevelant now that it was 20+ years ago

When I was a kid (born in 1972) getting fast food was a 'treat', in as much as we didn't do it very often.



My wife is constantly stopping for fast food and thus our kids are accustomed to getting it frequently. This bothers me. But it seems like this is the norm for a lot of families.



Is it a changing times thing or just the way I was raised vs the way my wife was raised/does things.





Is fast food more prevelant now that it was 20+ years ago

My cough has been lingering for weeks

I got a little sick with a cold over thanksgiving and I've felt fine for weeks now but the cough is lingering.



What should i do?????





My cough has been lingering for weeks

RETAINED – Director – West USA – FCAS w/ sharp Product Management knowledge (#43662)

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment | P&C Jobs



P&C insurance company seeks a Director-level Actuary to be a key member of the product management team.* This position reports to the SVP and is accountable, for developing and executing the personal lines business plan for your assigned region. Additionally, you will be responsible for developing and managing pricing and underwriting strategies. Great career growth and opportunity. (#43662)







Apply at http://www.dwsimpson.com/register OR email your resume to Tom Troceen at actuaries@dwsimpson.com and mention the position above. You may also contact any of our recruiters at (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300.



Tom Troceen

DW Simpson Global Actuarial Recruitment

4121 N Ravenswood Ave

Chicago, Illinois 60613

Phone: (800) 837-8338 / (312) 867-2300





Fax: (312) 951-8386

actuaries@dwsimpson.com



www.dwsimpson.com







View and apply for this job at https://www.dwsimpson.com/jobs/16715/retained-director-west-usa-fcas-w-sharp-product-management-knowledge-43662






RETAINED – Director – West USA – FCAS w/ sharp Product Management knowledge (#43662)

Vikings

For those of you that enjoy the benefits of Amazon Prime...(Or history channel)



Vikings is an excellent show. I would say it's as good as Marco Polo, and if you like Marco Polo, you'll enjoy Vikings.



http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2306299/





Vikings

Bad Morning

I changed the litter in the cat's litter box this morning. Dumped the contents into the trash, and was bringing the garbage bag downstairs. The garbage bag ripped open when I was halfway down the stairs. Litter etc. all over the place. I had a nice temper tantrum. Then got it all cleaned up.





Bad Morning

Help with Gym Comparisons

I'm considering switching gyms from one near where I live to another that is close to where I work.



My current gym is a boxing gym which are basically classes. It doesn't provide any sort of shower or other services besides from the boxing, but I think the training is quite good. However, I'd like to include weight training in my exercise routine and it doesn't provide this. This gym is $75/month.



The gym I'm considering joining is close to work. The gym has lots of free weight equipment including a squat rack, lockers, showers, and other foo-foo health stuff like oxygen bars and hydrotherapy. It has some classes, such as a bootcamp, that could help me get the cardio-work that I want (although I'd have to wake up almost 2 hours earlier than I usually do to make it to the class). This gym is $100 per month, with a $150 initial fee.



What I'd really like is to keep my current boxing gym and just have access to a squat rack somewhere, but I'm not finding any cheap gyms that won't be hitting me up for any less than $50 which I don't think is worth it. I could be willing to change to the new one but I'm still not sure if it's worth the extra cash in terms of what I might lose in cardio and boxing training.



Advice? Thoughts?





Help with Gym Comparisons

ST 5/14, Q. 2

You are given the following information:

  • Buses arrive according to a Poisson process at a rate of 5 per hour.

  • Taxis arrive according to a Poisson process at a rate of 10 per hour.

  • The arrival of buses and taxis are independent.

  • You get a ride to work from either a bus or a taxi, whichever arrives first.


Calculate the probability that you will have to wait more than 10 minutes for a ride to work.



---



Why is it that we have to look at the Poisson process with intensity 5 + 10 = 15 for this problem? A proof would be preferable, but I would really like a direct explanation motivating the sum of the intensities.





ST 5/14, Q. 2

FOR SALE: 2014 ST ASM Manual 2nd Edition

Like New Condition! No writing, highlights, earmarks, spills, creases, etc.



$100 with shipping included (to anywehre in continental USA).



PM if interested.



Thanks!





FOR SALE: 2014 ST ASM Manual 2nd Edition

FOR SALE: 2014 ST ASM Manual 2nd Edition

Like New Condition! No writing, highlights, earmarks, spills, creases, etc.



$100 with shipping included (to anywehre in continental USA).



PM if interested.



Thanks!





FOR SALE: 2014 ST ASM Manual 2nd Edition

Openings for next season

I believe we're going to have 2 openings - Drzy/Aeyyyyy has said he's leaving, and I believe Not Mike may want to leave as well.



If you know of anyone who wants to join, please let me know.





Openings for next season

Appeals?

Anyone appealing? I wish they would release the examiner report now... I feel like I can't do anything until they do. There were definitely several problems I have no idea what I did incorrectly.



And also that terrorism question... That's definitely one that the syllabus readings could have been reasonably interpreted differently by different people.



Is the appeals process any quicker now? From previous threads, I read that you pretty much won't get the results of the appeal before the spring sitting.





Appeals?

How to get productive in life?

I've realized I waste a great amount of time doing useless stuff, like watching TV shows, movies, Facebook, Youtube, surfing internet etc. I could spend that time reading books, doing programming courses, exercise and so on and so forth. I've realized I procrastinate a lot.



I still do a good job maintaining a work/life balance though. Means I do a good job at work and give enough time to family, but still have plenty of time left that I could utilize for much more productive stuff.



My question is, does any of you feel the same way sometimes and think that you can get more disciplined and organized in life, stop procrastinating and spend your time doing more productive stuff? If so, how do you think one can overcome this?





How to get productive in life?

ASM 50.11

Why is Xbar 12/28? I thought it would be 9/28? There were 9 months in 1999 with a claim.



Second question is if we assume Xbar =12/28, how does Z=4/13? I thought it would be 28/(28+5.25) = .8421?



Thanks for the help!





ASM 50.11

Woman Leaves "Midnight Mail" for Crooks Stealing Her Packages

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/27589781/delivery



WASHINGTON, DC - A woman says she was really fed up with crooks stealing her packages on her front step while she was work.



She gave the alleged crook a special delivery, a box full of dog poop and the thieves scooped it up.



Andrea Hutzler, 33, said frustration overload pushed her to a point where she no longer wanted to be a victim and felt the crooks should get a taste of their own medicine.



She tried calling the cops, and even putting up a camera, but her stuff was still being swiped.



Hutzler trained a camera on the front step of her home near K Street NE after she had three packages stolen in two months.



Thieves took Christmas gifts, clothing, and even three 6-foot aluminum poles she planned to use in remodeling. The federal employee estimates that $858 worth of goods were taken from her home.



So, Hutzler got revenge Monday by putting out a "dummy" box full of poop from her two dogs.



"I feel happy," she said. "I had wanted to put in a note, like 'Surprise! Please stop stealing my crap.'"



Video put on YouTube and then shared by Popville shows a man walking up to a house, grabbing a package and quickly walking away. Unfortunately, it doesn't show the man opening the box.



Police distributed video yesterday afternoon that shows a man swiping a package from an 8th Street NE home.



Hutzler said she hopes police can use the videos to catch the offender. In the meantime, she's sending her packages to her friends' houses.





Woman Leaves "Midnight Mail" for Crooks Stealing Her Packages

Fall 2014 Exam Solutions

Attached are my solutions to the ratemaking questions.

(These are prior to seeing the CAS Examiner's Report.)



Comments and corrections appreciated.




Attached Images





File Type: pdf Sols5F14.pdf (148.4 KB)







Fall 2014 Exam Solutions

ISIS Executed Nearly 2,000 People Since June: Monitor



Quote:








The Islamic State group has executed nearly 2,000 people since it started its campaign in June to take over large swaths of land in Iraq and Syria. About half of those who have been executed were part of a prominent Sunni tribe that rose up against ISIS in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group in Britain, said Sunday.



“The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has documented the execution by the Islamic State of 1,878 people in Syria between June 28 when it announced its ‘caliphate” and Dec. 27,” the monitoring group said in a statement. About 930 of those executed were from the Shaitat tribe. Of those killed, 1,175 were civilians, including four children and eight women.





http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-executed...onitor-1768284



Wow - that is pure evil.

Luckily we have a dude in an apartment in Britain to verify what is going on.





ISIS Executed Nearly 2,000 People Since June: Monitor

New Orleans/Sugar Bowl trip

Never been to the city but I know we have at least one resident expert here on the AO...



Driving to the Sugar Bowl on Jan 1 for the OSU/Alabama game. Will probably arrive around 4pm which will give us a few hours before kick off. Will have two underage girls, ages of 15 and 17. Was wondering about how to spend the time before game.



Is it realistic to park at the stadium and walk anywhere worth seeing? Bourbon street looks to only be about a mile and a half away. Is that inappropriate for kids? Are there other places nearby where we can eat and watch the earlier games on TV? Anything else we should consider.





New Orleans/Sugar Bowl trip

Another Missing Plane

Story is a few days old, but haven't seen a thread on it yet.



http://www.wsj.com/articles/search-f...ighttopstories




Quote:








JAKARTA, Indonesia—Officials said they would expand yet again the search area for a missing AirAsia jetliner, after a second day of combing the waters with an arsenal of planes and ships failed to yield signs of the airplane carrying 162 people.



Officials said 30 vessels and 15 planes were deployed Monday to scour waters around Bangka Island, south of Singapore and north of the island of Borneo. The area already had been widened from the initial search area on Sunday.



Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 vanished in a thicket of storm clouds en route to Singapore from the Indonesian city of Surabaya on Sunday morning. It lost contact with air-traffic control less than an hour after takeoff after requesting permission to climb to a higher altitude to avoid bad weather, officials said.



The head of the National Search and Rescue Agency, Bambang Soelistyo, said search and rescue teams Tuesday will also start searching the water south of Bangka Island, and widen the area of search in the western part of Borneo. No signals have yet to be detected from the plane’s emergency locator transmitters.



Mr. Soelistyo, who earlier Monday said they suspect the plane was at the bottom of the sea, said Indonesia is requesting a submersible from France, the United Kingdom or the U.S. to help find the missing plane. “We have coordinated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to borrow a submersible,” he said.








Another Missing Plane

The Librarians

Anyone seen this and can recommend it? I've seen a couple commercials that made me go hmm.



Wiki says it started with three TV movies in 04, 06, and 08, and now a TV series. Looks like a nice cast list.



Anybody?





The Librarians

ao fan

... hasn't posted in nearly 12 hours. I'm worried she may be dead.





ao fan

How to prepare for SOA Exam P

March will be here before you know it! Prepare for SOA Exam P with ACTEX!






ACTEX Publications is re-launching its Exam Preparation Online Course series with its first offering in January, 2015!



The ACTEX Online Course for SOA Exam P Preparation is a 10 week course with two weeks of dedicated intensive practice. Instructor Richard E. Owens, FSA, MAA, CFA will guide students in their preparation of SOA Exam P by providing problem-solving techniques, direct instructor support, video lectures, and many other helpful tools.



Course Dates: January 9 - March 19, 2015

Course Instructor: Rich Owens, FSA, MAAA

Registration Deadline: Register for this course by January 9, 2015.

**In order to secure your place in the course and to receive your materials before the start date, please register early.**

Future Course Dates: March 5 - May 13, 2015 & August 28 - November 6, 2015



Are you a Full-Time College Student?

A 50% discount off of the course tuition is available for full-time college students. In order to access this discount, please e-mail a copy of your current semester's registration from your university e-mail address to OnlineCourses@ActexMadRiver.com for further instructions on how to access the discount.



Place your order today at ACTEXMadRiver.com! The course begins on January 9, 2015!







Feel free to ask questions in this forum!





How to prepare for SOA Exam P

Asymmetrical Butterfly Spread

Could someone kindly explain why combining three calls (or three puts) at certain strike prices makes an asymmetrical butterfly spread?



I can see that this relationship is true through the payoff table, but I can't see it graphically because ASM's example uses fractional units of the out-of-the-money options, and I don't know how to graph those.





Asymmetrical Butterfly Spread

Life is just a jumble of confusion and anticlimactic despair

a





Life is just a jumble of confusion and anticlimactic despair

Borrowing Corporate Value of ERM (Atlanta)

Does anyone have a copy of Segal's Corporate Value of Enterprise Risk Management in the Atlanta area? Would like to borrow it for a couple days. PM me if you can help out.



Thanks.





Borrowing Corporate Value of ERM (Atlanta)

are you working next week?

I mean, actually working, I'll be in the office and getting paid, but, **** working nobody else will be there.





are you working next week?

Actuary versus Claims Professional

dimanche 28 décembre 2014

What is the difference? They are both involved in estimating unpaid claims and the reserving process, right?





Actuary versus Claims Professional

About the missing plane in Indonesia ( air crew suspended search efforts till morning

Kind of upsetting



The air crew suspended searching for lives that could be dead in matters of hours



But because its nighttime, they don't believe in working past dusk over there?



What kind of sleep is it for the family members of the missing passengers?



Indonesian authorities began and then had to suspend an air search for an AirAsia plane carrying 162 passengers and crew members after it lost contact Sunday morning with air traffic control.



By nightfall Sunday, Indonesian officials said they had spotted no sign of the plane in the area over the Java Sea but had to stop their search because of bad weather and darkness. The air search was to be continued Monday morning.




http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...cd7_story.html



It's nighttime so you stop searching. It's not New York City in other words. People don't work day and night searching. Nighttime means sorry our search efforts are closed? You die you die?





About the missing plane in Indonesia ( air crew suspended search efforts till morning

IA Retake - Registration Issue

I can't sign up for this online. Seriously? Or am I just not navigating to the right page? All the links I am finding are paper applications now, which doesn't make sense on any level. Can anyone help me out with a link here?





IA Retake - Registration Issue

Resume critique?

I have a GPA of about 2.982, and there's this. I'm pretty sure it's awfully formatted, but frankly I have no idea. Help?




Attached Images





File Type: pdf gooby did it.pdf (73.9 KB)







Resume critique?

EOM 1...Anyone working on this now?

Anybody here and want to buddy-up for the project? Shoot me a PM.





EOM 1...Anyone working on this now?

Where are exams typically administered?

Are they proctored by a credentialed actuary?

Is it common for college students taking exams to try to network with the proctor after the exam is over, since they know the proctor likely works nearby?





Where are exams typically administered?

Tight back

I've had a tight back for the last number of years. I'm young-ish and not over-weight. It's nothing serious, and my back has never stopped me from working out or playing sports. But I do feel that it's tight more often than I should be(for example, when lying down to do a bench press).



Does anyone have any suggestions on stretches or exercises to get rid of this ache?



A couple that I've read about (and I think they will help, to he honest) are

- hip flexor stretch (back knee on ground, front foot on ground, lean forward)

- Hamstring (typical touch your toes stretch)

- More hammy stretching (lie on your back, get somoene to stretch one leg straight up and towards your head).

- Lie on stomach and arch your back.





Tight back

Effective Tax Rate on Common Stock Dividends - for Non Insurer

Hi all,



I'm confused on the following two pieces, and will greatly appreciate any help:



1) Page 2 of Feldblum's Taxable Income Paper:



http://www.casact.org/library/studyn...ldblum2007.pdf



says: "The effective tax rate on dividends from unaffiliated entities is 30% × 35% = 10.50% for non-insurers"



2) Page 2 of Feldblum's Taxes and Investment Strategy Paper:



http://www.casact.org/library/studyn...um_Tax2007.pdf



says: "Stocks: The tax rate is 15% on shareholder dividends and long-term capital gains."





Can anyone please clarify why 15% effective tax rate on Common Stock dividends for non-insurers mentioned in the 2) above is different than 10.5% in 1) above?



Thank you so much!





Effective Tax Rate on Common Stock Dividends - for Non Insurer

Missing plane - contact lost with traffic control, 155 people missing

An Air Asia flight from Indonesia to Singapore has gone missing, and was supposed to land several hours ago. As an aside, Air Asia is a Malaysian-based airline, although this flight was neither departing from nor landing in Malaysia. This is a similar region to where MH370 lost contact (I believe a few hundred miles away, but could be mistaken).




Quote:








The search is on for AirAsia Flight 8501, which lost contact with air traffic control in Indonesia, the airline said Sunday.

Flight QZ 8501 from the Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore lost contact with air traffic control at 7:24 a.m. Sunday (5:24 p.m. Saturday ET), AirAsia said.

"At the present time we unfortunately have no further information regarding the status of the passengers and crew members on board, but we will keep all parties informed as more information becomes available," AirAsia said in a statement.

The plane had 155 passengers and crew on board, the news agency Reuters reported, citing Indonesian transport officials.



Link





Missing plane - contact lost with traffic control, 155 people missing

Clarinet

Anyone play?

If so, what's your preferred mouthpiece, barrel, and bell?

Any special recommendations for the above if you're playing classical? jazz?





Clarinet

EOM 3 task 3

samedi 27 décembre 2014

I'm working on EOM 3 task 3 and currently struggling with what task 3 is asking us to do. We are given an expected fund rate of return of 6.5% and are told to estimate an effect if it increases or decreases by 2%. Not sure if i should just change the rate in the model to 8.5% or 4.5%. I've been looking at this for a good 1hr. Any explanations would be greatly appreciated. Thanks





EOM 3 task 3

10/10 Thread



Spoiler:










Spoiler:












Spoiler:












Spoiler:












Spoiler:














Spoiler:










Spoiler:










10/10 Thread

US Commercial Pricing - Introduction

Hi All



I am looking for recommended reading to get an understanding of technical pricing for commercial insurance in the US.



Background: I am a European actuary with a reasonable amount of commercial pricing experience. However I have no experience of technical pricing in the US. For various reasons this is something I'd like to fix! In particular I'd like to understand how technical pricing interacts filed rates, the use of ISO rates, more about what options are available for filed rates etc.



Probably very n00b questions. So does anyone have any recommendations for some good papers I could go through as a starting point? I realise that they're not going to cover everything but just to give me the foundation.



Thanks!



1234





US Commercial Pricing - Introduction

goTenna

goTenna is a new gadget that sounds interesting. http://www.gotenna.com/



I definitely don't "need" it, but it sounds appealing. Anybody interested?





goTenna

Selling stock short and borrowing money

Let's say I sell one stock short and borrow the present value of 100 dollars.



At time T, the payoff is:



-S(T)-100e^(rT)



Is the above correct?





Selling stock short and borrowing money

Can NYC Mayor De Blasio career be salvaged?

It's intriguing how a liberal city like NYC is so dependent on law and order legal infrastructure to sustain itself. Both Guilliani and Bloomberg had a good working relationship with NYPD. With cops openly turning their back on their new mayor, can De Blasio really survive the political fallout he's facing?



NYPD turn backs to mayor at slain officer's funeral

http://news.yahoo.com/mayor-vp-speak...061041769.html





Can NYC Mayor De Blasio career be salvaged?

"Imitation Game" Movie about British guy who beat Nazis?

The reason the Allies knew to invade into Normandy and break through Hitler's line of defense at the place and time they did?



Was that a guy named Alan Turing created a computer telegraph that decrypted a stolen Nazi machine, enabling the British to discover all of Hitler's communications to his Nazis about their war strategy...he broke all the codes...1 in 59,000,000,000,000,000,000 odds to do without the Algorithm computer Alan Turing created...the first computer



He then did a very actuarial thing



He had to determine the minimum number of actions to take using the leaked info...to win the war



And the maximum number such that the Nazis would not get suspicious the British tapped into their intelligence system. Because if they found out before the war ended...they would stop using the old telegraph system and then the British wouldnt have been able to pull off the WW2. The French would be speaking German right now and New York would become New Berlin



That is a very actuarial thing



It's like capturing the minimum price such that an insurance product will secure an X% profit margin and the maximum price such that the line of business remains competitive



You are a reincarnated Alan Turing if you passed the prelim exams because by blind guessing on the exam on a 50-question MLC exam you would have close to a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of a perfect score. But you created something called "studying" which decrypted the ABCDE. To decrypt the ABCDEs without having to bubble Answer E for every question





"Imitation Game" Movie about British guy who beat Nazis?

Random sports thread for those who don't follow sports

I think it's hilarious that my college won the bitcoin bowl.





Random sports thread for those who don't follow sports

Obamacare Created Insurer (via Gov't Loans) is Seized by Iowa

http://joemiller.us/2014/12/obamacar...ded-insurance/



An Obamacare-created and taxpayer-funded insurance company in Iowa has been taken over by the state due to a financial crisis.



CoOportunity Health is Iowa’s insurance cooperative — a nonprofit insurance company created by the Affordable Care Act to supposedly undercut the large, for-profit insurers that Democrats castigated as “greedy” and “evil” during the debate over health care reform.





After just beginning to offer plans in 2013, the company’s already insolvent and has now been taken over by the state of Iowa, insurance commissioner Nick Gerhart announced Wednesday. CoOpportunity doesn’t have enough cash on hand to be sure it can pay claims for its 120,000 customers, if necessary. The company has only $17 million in cash and assets, Gerhart said.



The federal government’s Obamacare administrator the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services initially gave CoOportunity a $112 million loan award in Feb. 2012, but doled out an additional $32.7 million emergency award to keep the company solvent in September of this year.



That wasn’t enough to keep it in business. CoOpportunity’s management expected to receive more federal money than they did, putting them in continuing financial peril.



Read more about how this Obamacare taxpayer funded insurance company went insolvent http://dailycaller.com/2014/12/24/ob...-by-the-state/





Obamacare Created Insurer (via Gov't Loans) is Seized by Iowa

Ksquared2012's Failing Candidate Analysis

vendredi 26 décembre 2014



Quote:








Originally Posted by Darth Mahler (Post 6964964)

I'm sure many of you as I did went through and calculated what your range of scores was for each question and also your overall range of possible scores. After comparing my paper and another candidate's paper, I was able narrow down both of our scores somewhat. I think with 10-20 papers, this could be improved upon significantly.



It's way past the optimal window for doing this, but if I can get enough responses, we could really home in on what the mean is for many of these questions and instead of 1.375-1.875 for a given question, your score range may be narrowed down to 1.375-1.5, and in some cases, your exact score may be apparent.



If you wish to participate, fill out a copy of the attached excel workbook and email it to exam5_ca@outlook.com. If you do not have excel, you scan your Candidate's Analysis page and email it. Everyone who sends in their scores will get a response from me each week if new papers come in. Only participants will benefit in order to encourage more people to share their results. Might be mildly useful in prepping for the fall to know that you got 2 points on a question rather than 1.5-2 points. Also, tell your friends/coworkers who are not on the outpost.




I would like to do a similar analysis this sitting. Please email me at kasquared2012@gmail.com with an attachment or your score report or send me your ranges to me in an AO PM



I wish you all the best in your endeavors to achieve an FCAS designation.



This service is available for all CAS exams that you may have a score report for.





Ksquared2012's Failing Candidate Analysis

General IA question

How well did you stick to the recommended suggestion of 1-2 pages per question? I don't want to make my answers long-winded, yet I'm worried about being too brief. So far, my answers have been about 1.5 pages each.





General IA question

Neil deGrasse Tyson's Christmas tweets enrage Christians



Spoiler:





Quote:








Originally Posted by @neiltyson

QUESTION: ThIs year, what do all the world's Muslims and Jews call December 25th? ANSWER: Thursday





Quote:








Originally Posted by @neiltyson

On this day long ago, a child was born who, by age 30, would transform the world. Happy Birthday Isaac Newton b. Dec 25, 1642





Quote:








Originally Posted by @neiltyson

Merry Christmas to all. A Pagan holiday (BC) becomes a Religious holiday (AD). Which then becomes a Shopping holiday (USA).











http://ift.tt/1zGnIoL






Neil deGrasse Tyson's Christmas tweets enrage Christians

State Tax on Distributions/Income

Does your State tax distributions from Traditional IRA to Roth IRA?



It appears some States do not. It would seem to present an opportunity for folks earning income in one State to defer taxes and roll over (IRA) and distributing (Roth IRA) in another. I could contribute 18k to 2015 401(k) in MA and move to employment in PA where I rollover my old 401(k) amount to a traditional IRA, and subsequent distribution to Roth IRA and save on State income tax.



The following is an example from the State of Pennsylvania--i'm not sure if i'm reading it correctly, but if so perhaps i should move there:



"The conversion of a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA is generally not taxable. That is, monies transferred from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA via conversion (whether by a trustee-to-trustee transfer or a roll-over within 60 days) are generally not subject to Pennsylvania personal income tax. However, any amounts transferred from the traditional IRA that are not put into the Roth IRA, be it by federal income tax withholding or otherwise, are subject to Pennsylvania personal income tax. In such a situation, basis is allocated pro-rata between the taxable distribution and the non-taxable conversion. If there is a partial rollover/conversion, the basis in the traditional IRA must be allocated pro-rata between the traditional IRA and the Roth IRA."



link here





State Tax on Distributions/Income

So I went to a chinese restaurant last night (Christmas night) ...

It seemed the whole world was there -- full and many waiting ... mostly whole families. I was there picking up a to-go order (big order); but since when spending xmas night at a chinese restaurant became a tradition? I suppose the owner was fully aware of the situation and kept it open just for the extra opportunity.





So I went to a chinese restaurant last night (Christmas night) ...

Will learning Stochastic Programming help me perform actuarial work?

1. Will this help with actuarial work?

2. Will chicks be impressed?



Here is the course description.




Quote:








Originally Posted by Stochastic programming

This course will provide an overview of the theory, solution algorithms, and applications of models for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The course will emphasize models and methods that apply to discrete-time, high-dimensional decisions in a variety of domains including energy, finance, logistics, manufacturing, transportation, and services. Continuous-time models will also be presented for comparison. Topics will include characterization of optimality, stability, sensitivity, and robustness, approximation, statistical, and convergence properties, asymptotic and extremal distributions, and computational complexity.



Students will develop skills to represent complex decision problems in a tractable form, to solve large-scale problems, and to describe resulting solution properties. Students will be prepared to read, understand, and interpret recent literature in the field.









Will learning Stochastic Programming help me perform actuarial work?

Don't want to hold my nephew

Here is the deal. My brother and his wife had a baby in early December. I met my newest nephew yesterday and his wife hands him to me and I promptly handed him to my mom. And I get all these weird looks and people are like, don't you want to hold him? No, I do, but I wanted to give him time with grandma first. (Complete lie) Went to wash dishes to avoid holding him.



Is it weird that I don't want to hold a newborn? What if he poops or spits-up on me? You want me to change diapers? No thanks.



More seriously, what if I drop him? He could die, or have serious complications resulting from the fall. Holding babies just makes me uncomfortable, but people don't seem to think that's normal and they try to push me to hold their children. TONS of people want to hold your kids, why are you pushing them on the one person who is literally thinking that your child will die while he's holding it?





Don't want to hold my nephew

Question - Regarding AIY

In Appendix B, the non-modeled CAT provision is determined by using AIY in comparison with the Earned Exposures, and then taking that result and multiplying it by the historical of CAT Reported Losses to AIY and the ULAE factor.



What exactly is Amount of Insurance Years? I understand house years, and amount of insurance.



Is AIY, just taking all the policies during each calendar year and adding up together the Amount of Insurance (Coverage A) for each policy that is earned?



For example, lets assume we have three policies that start Jan 1st, 2015 that have Coverage A for the following: 100K, 200K, and 300K. The 300K coverage policy was canceled on June 30th, 2015. Would the AIY simply bee 100K + 200K + 150K + 450K? Thanks!





Question - Regarding AIY

Have you been sick this season?

Seems like everyone is getting something.



No tomfoolery.





Have you been sick this season?

Deviated Septum

So I think I may have this (Anecdotal Evidence of other people telling me about it. I'm not a hypochondriac). I will go see a doctor. In the meantime...





Does anyone have any experience with this? Has anyone done the surgery? What symptoms did you have? Any relevant info would be great.



TIA





Deviated Septum

Voters ban red light cameras; city councils sue voters to bring them back

:popcorn:



http://ift.tt/1CLgCAl



In November, voters in St. Charles County, MO approved a charter amendment that prohibits municipalities within the county from using red light cameras to enforce traffic laws. According to KMOV-TV St. Louis, 73% of voters gave support for the ban, overwhelmingly sending a message that citizens in the county do not approve of cities using the cameras, which are seen as a revenue generating tool. However, the cities of St. Peters, Lake St. Louis, and O’Fallon are suing in an effort to reverse the ban, claiming that the county government has no authority over municipalities’ traffic rules.



KMOV-TV St. Louis cited a statement by the City of St. Peters on the issue, which said, “No authority exists for St. Charles County to lay claim to the regulation of traffic on city streets.” Proponents of red light cameras claim that the devices promote safe driving and that the ballot measure banning them was titled in a manner that misled voters. The charter amendment was titled “Proposition Red Light Camera.”



John Young, an attorney representing the plaintiffs in this case, says that the suit could take months or even years to work its way through the courts. Meanwhile, red light cameras in the county remain in place pending the forthcoming ruling, though they have been kept in a powered-off state since September.



St. Charles County Councilman Joe Brazil, who opposes the use of red light cameras, commented on the politics of the lawsuit, “Seventy-three percent of the voters pass a ban on red light cameras so what these cities are doing are suing 73 percent of the voters in St. Charles County, within their own cities. They’re suing their own residents.” St. Louis Today notes that O’Fallon Councilman Jim Pepper and Dardenne Prairie Mayor Pam Fogarty personally signed on to the lawsuit against the charter amendment banning red light cameras, which bears political risk given the fact that a strong majority of St. Charles County voters came out to the polls in support of the ban. The plaintiffs claim that they have standing to go forward with the lawsuit, which was filed in St. Charles County Circuit Court, because the cities involved would lose revenue if the ban were to be enforced.



Roger Dalsky, a local supporter of the ban on red light cameras who was interviewed by KMOV-TV St. Louis, said, “The federal government has jurisdictions over the states, states have jurisdictions over the counties, the counties have jurisdictions over their municipalities, so it’s fairly clear that they have the right to impose laws on those municipalities, especially if those laws are voted into law by the voters.”



County Councilman Joe Brazil parroted Dalsky’s sentiment, saying in comments to St. Louis Today, “The people have the right to change the constitution of the county… That’s what voters do.” Brazil also pointed out the fact that some of the plaintiffs on the case have themselves promoted county-wide referendums on other issues that would have affected municipal policies, acts which he characterized as hypocritical.



The Missouri Supreme Court is currently considering three separate red light camera cases, which had their first hearings on December 2. In one case, the Missouri Supreme Court is reviewing a decision by St. Louis Circuit Judge Steven Ohmer in which he invalidated two fines which were issued via red light cameras to two women whose cars were being driven by someone else at the time that the tickets were issued. The Missouri Supreme Court is also weighing the broader issue of whether municipalities can use red light cameras without the state legislature granting specific authority to do so.



As TheNewspaper.com points out, St. Peters, MO once hosted the nation’s first ever corruption trial over red light cameras, as former St. Peters Mayor Shawn Brown was convicted of taking a bribe from the company Redflex Traffic Systems in exchange for his support for a measure installing the company’s cameras city-wide. According to St. Louis Public Radio, Brown was sentenced in 2007 to an 18-month stint in federal prison over the scandal.





Voters ban red light cameras; city councils sue voters to bring them back

New Zealand goes after non-indigenous mammals. Some of them.

On the list

  • rats;

  • mice;

  • cats; and

  • stoats.


Oddly, not on the list are

  • Maori; and

  • British settlers.





Quote:








The idea of ridding all of New Zealand of its mammalian predators was proposed by Paul Callaghan, a world-renowned physicist, in a speech delivered in Wellington, in February, 2012. In scientific circles, Callaghan was celebrated for his work on nuclear magnetic resonance; to Kiwis he was probably best known for having recently been named New Zealander of the Year. At the time he gave the speech, Callaghan was dying of cancer, and everyone who heard it realized that it was one of the last he would deliver. (He died the following month.)



“Let’s get rid of the lot,” Callaghan said. “Let’s get rid of all the predators—all the damned mustelids, all the rats, all the possums—from the mainland.”








New Zealand goes after non-indigenous mammals. Some of them.

Remarkable advances in plastic surgery






Remarkable advances in plastic surgery

Has anyone else seen the Hubble deep field and wondered?

There are close to a trillion galaxies within 13 billion light years of us, that we can see. Who knows what is further away, or what it would be like to zip around out there.



Every wonder what civilizations have risen and fallen over the last billion years? As much as I marvel at the cosmos, there is only so much up there we can ever hope to see, and so much diversity right here on this planet that we can see up close. As hazy as the skies are, maybe I should get a microscope instead of another telescope.



http://ift.tt/1CLgBMT



That is a section of the sky the size of your pinky finger nail with your arm outstretched. It is taken from an area where there are not too many stars from our own galaxy blocking the view. I think the redder ones are moving away from us, and the bluer ones are coming towards us. The Andromeda galaxy will pass through ours in another 2.5 billion years.





Has anyone else seen the Hubble deep field and wondered?

I have OnePlus One invites to share. Want one?

jeudi 25 décembre 2014

Let me know.





I have OnePlus One invites to share. Want one?

Bryan Adams vs. Ryan Adams

Anyone want to address this issue?





Bryan Adams vs. Ryan Adams

The latest in [common]cold remedies

What you say!!!





The latest in [common]cold remedies

someone needs to get fired on the facebook staff

http://ift.tt/1EmitNR



:shake: i pretty much ignored the thing when it appeared at the top of my newsfeed for myself. i think i might have had all of one picture anyway and that was probably the one featured in the cover itself. didn't want to see the rest. pretty insensitive towards people who had a truly horrible year though, even more than my uneventful year.



someone needs to get fired at facebook.





someone needs to get fired on the facebook staff

Does John Walkenbach's VBA book teach programming, or just VBA?

University programming texts teach data structures, debugging, algorithms, and a bunch of info common to all programming languages. They merely use a particular language as a wayof teaching those concepts.



Does John's book teach all these concepts? Or does it read more like the typical Microsoft software how to books?





Does John Walkenbach's VBA book teach programming, or just VBA?
 

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