What's it like working for a B rated insurer?

dimanche 19 avril 2015

Did you try to get out of there as soon as you could? Did you take the job because you were that desperate for experience? Or were you brought in as a hero who could help the company dig itself out of its hole and given a nice compensation package?



Inquiring minds want to know.



:popcorn:





What's it like working for a B rated insurer?

Spring 2013 #10d

The solution uses NFNLP= Ax/ax.



Isnt NFNLP = Face * Ax/ax ?





Spring 2013 #10d

on this 4/20 Day...

:smoke:



Does anyone know if the story about Louis Armstrong using Richard Nixon as a drug mule is true or just legend?





on this 4/20 Day...

ILA LRM Fall 2014 #2(b)

(b) (3 points) Given the following loss distributions:



X

=5 with a probability of 0.800

=80 with a probability of 0.170

=500 with a probability of 0.030



Y

=10 with a probability of 0.850

=120 with a probability of 0.145

=2000 with a probability of 0.005



Calculate the 95% VaR and 95% CTE for X+Y, assuming X and Y are

independent. Show all work.



How is the distribution X+Y is obtained?



Thanks in advance.





ILA LRM Fall 2014 #2(b)

Black-Derman-Toy model

Been having very hard time understanding this topic. I'm using both TIA and ASM manual and I'm having problem understanding it overall. Any good way to understand this topic?



I'm having hard time understanding the time format of the problems, and how the models are laid out.



"determine the lognormal yield volatility of zero-coupon bonds with 2 years to expiry at time 1" I know that if the price is 100 at time 0, you are looking for a price to pay in 1 year that matures in year 3 (1st period on model). But then I don't understand how to read it on a 2 period model.



or



you have 2 period table, each intervals 6 months, question reads "determine lognormal yield volatility for 1-year bonds issued at the end of 6 months" can someone tell me what exact time period i'm supposed to look at? I know how to ultimately calculate the volatility, but I don't understand which time period to look at whenever these questions are laid out.



any help will be appreciated. thanks.





Black-Derman-Toy model

CAS and FEM

Can somebody explain how this works? Can students at (selected) Canadian Universities get credit for prelims by passing certain courses?

When these students get to ACAS or FCAS, is there any way to tell that they completed part of the requirements by college course?





CAS and FEM

SOA WA #4,6,8,16

Hey all, need a little bit of help understanding some SOA Sample WA topics I can't quite wrap my head around:



#4 Part A ii



Deriving Kolmogorov's...how do you get from line 3 of the solution to line 4...in line 4 you subtract tPx(00) and divide by (h)...how do you mathematically accomplish this?



#6 Part A ii



A shorter lifetime for Jim and Amy implies a positive covariance, how is this so?



#8 Part A



Why is the decrement due to death straight up = 12%? I calculated the decrement due to death using the UDDAST formula to account for dependent probability for lapse and got (.12)(1 - .1/2) = 11.4%...why is this wrong?



#16 Part C



The solution's note mentions that an interest rate lower than the risk discount rate would release profit sooner, thus increasing the Net Present Value...I can't visualize this, how exactly does a lower interest rate release profit sooner?





SOA WA #4,6,8,16

Old Folks on the AO.... when we were young(er)

I was looking for a post about something else on my livejournal, and I came across this:



http://ift.tt/1J1ksbG




Quote:










I cannot get enough of people smacking each other around at The Rebel Outpost.



Latest fun exchange:

24fan: Leave it to Westley (Mr. "I'll steal an old woman's pension as long as I gets paid") to recommend firing people.



To get you back for calling me a dick .... Westley, people like you are cockroaches and this forum is your roach motel, where you will spend the rest of eternity. What a great service this forum performs, keeping you out of society.



Elisha: Get a job in the actuarial field and be there for at least 6 months - then you can start talking smack.



(24fan has been talking crap all over the place, and getting smacked down each time. I think the moderators think he's too much fun to ban. Westley gave very good advice about when it's a good idea to fire an employee. Westley has employees, so he's got experience in this field; 24fan has got bupkus when it comes to job experience.)



I didn't remember any of this at all.



and this:

http://ift.tt/1aJmqyt




Quote:








Bitch fight!

I love a good bitch-slapping on the actuarial boards. Here's a quote from one thread:

Person A: I fail to understand what point that makes.



Person B: That's because you're denser than iridium and your college education failed you.



(Yes, there's more meat to it than that, mainly someone trying to point out you won't find actuarial jobs by looking at Monster.com. There aren't that many actuarial-types out there, so almost all actuarial jobs are posted through recruiters. Once you get to a certain level, they contact =you=, not vice versa. I'm not even credential yet, and I'm getting calls.)









Old Folks on the AO.... when we were young(er)

Captions Thread - Caption of the Month 03/2014

Caption of the Month March 2014...vote for your favorites! Top pick moves on to COTY.



03/2/2014

http://ift.tt/1aJmq1G



Picture for caption 1 – SilverMahatma







1. Italian Halibut: SilverMahatma - Foiled again...



Picture for captions 2 and 3 - Flippin











2. Chief Petosky: Flippin - "No thanks, I'm trying to stay away from fast food."

3. Arthur Itas: Flippin - I guess pancakes give them the runs





03/10/2014


http://ift.tt/1aJmnCO



Picture for captions 4 – Splash











4. Vorian Atreides: Splash - Don't mess with the Lohan!





Picture for captions 5, 6, 7 - BikeMoon





5. Chief Petosky: BikeMoon - The bike is actually his, but he's wishing it were a Loner.

6. Chief Petosky: BikeMoon - frummie up at the crack of Don to post this pic.

7. Arthur Itas: BikeMoon - I see a lot of arseholes on my daily commute



Pictures 8-11 – Robot Poles







8. JollyGoodFCAS: RobotPoles - WALL-E's bachelor party

9. RobotPoles - Flash-drive-dancers



Picture for 10-11 - Beer keg





10. DyalDragon: BeerKeg -

Quote:








Originally Posted by Cheerio

When you gonna let me tap that?...




11. JollyGoodFCAS: BeerKeg - And we all thought he was too old to be drafted





3/17/2014
http://ift.tt/1aJmnCS









Picture for 12:







12. Steve Grondin: Irish - I think she's after me lucky charms.



3/24/2014






Picture for 13:









13. DyalDragon: Snorkel - This time, McKayla actually was impressed.





Picture for 14:







14. faramir214: PaintingUnwrap - There is always that one person in the office who won't stick to the secret santa price limit.



Picture for 15







15. Chief Petosky: Cat - Captions Cafeteria, where you'll find the cats-up on the counter.







Picture for 16



16. DyalDragon: FacePlant - Coach: "Way to get your head in the game, Ethel!"









3/31/15


Picture for 17









17. Arthur Itas: ClockWork - Hey, that clock's got roamin' numerals





Captions Thread - Caption of the Month 03/2014

Examples of fair value and cash flow hedging

According to the readings, cash flow hedges are when you pay a fixed amount and receive a floating amount in return. Fair value hedges are when you pay a floating amount and receive a fixed amount in return.



Are there any good examples of these types of hedges? I suppose hedging a EIA with a call option would be a cash flow hedge. Are there any other big ones? What about fair value hedges?





Examples of fair value and cash flow hedging

2004 #21

So I was beating myself up over not matching the answer in TIA. Then I looked at CF and I matched the CF answer. Though both answers make sense. The old exam only matches the CF solution.



Essentially its a calculate the XSLDF problem.

They give you Expected ultimate limited and expected ulimate unlimited.

As well as reported at time t and the lmiited and unlimited LDF's.





CF uses the reported and the ldfs to come up with the XSLDF.



TIA uses the expected to come up with the XSLDF. Though now that I am typing this I think the CF and model solutions make more sense.



Thoughts?





2004 #21

Optimal Alcohol Consumption to Study In

At what point should I stop drinking and study?





Optimal Alcohol Consumption to Study In

Did you do all the TIA problems?

well, did ya?





Did you do all the TIA problems?

Fall 2014, Q6 - Requires knowledge of difference between products liability and WC

Specifically, the question starts out:




Quote:








A chemical used in manufacturing office desks has been found to cause a life-threatening disease.

a. For each of the following, describe whether an injured office worker would benefit more from the claim being filed under a workers' compensation policy instead of under a products liability policy:

  • The length of time between claim reporting and payment

  • The likelihood of payment

  • The amount of payment





So my question, why are we expected to know the difference between products liability and WC? Is this in the syllabus somewhere? Or is this because Online Course 2 is a prereq?





Fall 2014, Q6 - Requires knowledge of difference between products liability and WC

Strategic Risk

Someone give me a definition. TIA defines it as the intentional risk taking to achieve an organization's goals, and CF calls it unintentional risks that occur as a result of strategy planning or execution.



4 more days.





Strategic Risk

Plausibility factors

The numerator and denominator in the formula for the plausibility factor are both per 1000. Does this 1000 represent all members or just chronic members?





Plausibility factors

Exam study stress and people angry you aren't spending time with them

How do I deal with this? It's driving me crazy!



Imagine this is happening to you. How do you deal with these gossip types



"What kind of a husband is he??? He never spends any time with you on the weekend?



Couldn't he have studied months ago so he wouldn't need to study anymore now?

Can't he take a few days off the studying? It's all about him? He doesn't think about you! That's a problem."



"To tell you the truth I knew he would have to study for actuary exams, but not like THIS! I wish he could change jobs and do something else to make money. He's very smart so he shouldn't have to study this much anyway. He can study lunchtime on work days so he doesn't have to study on the weekends because my friends are noticing he's not with me all the time"



"Believe me we're all crossing our fingers and waiting till his exam is over. Thank god it's only 10 days away. Otherwise I would not be able to handle this much longer. It's embarrassing a man can't balance time for his spouse"



How do you cope with that?





Exam study stress and people angry you aren't spending time with them

2014 #22

When determining the Var99% levels for each business unit, the solution says we add the sigma*critical value to the mean.



But the mean is profit (not loss), so why would we include expected profit as contributing to capital held? This doesn't make sense, shouldn't expected profits deduct form capital held. If say we had 100% certainty we'd make $10 in profit. According to this method, we'd hold $10 in capital, when we wouldn't need to?



Why wouldn't the VaR99% = mean profit - critical value * sigma ?





2014 #22

S> ASM FM 11th and MFE 9th

Both manuals had been very helpful and in great condition, no marking in either.



FM Manual: 11th edition $83 (Free shipping)

MFE Manual: 9th edition $98 (Free shipping)





Shipping from Florida



Paypal preferred



PM me if interested, Thanks!





S> ASM FM 11th and MFE 9th

S> ASM FM 11th and MFE 9th

Both manuals had been very helpful and in great condition, no marking in either.



MFE Manual: 9th edition $98 (Free shipping)

FM Manual: 11th edition $83 (Free shipping)



Shipping from Florida



Paypal preferred



PM me if interested, Thanks!





S> ASM FM 11th and MFE 9th

Medicare Watch

Might as well create a new watch thread. (I did a search, and didn't find one, so here we go)



As the Baby Boomer pig is moving through the python, this is going to get more acute.



http://ift.tt/1yICJaH




Quote:








On March 25, the U.S. House of Representatives voted for a fiscally irresponsible so–called Medicare “doc fix” that will add $141 billion to the deficit over the next ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The U.S. Senate will likely vote on the bill later today, and the same lobbyists who dragged Obamacare into the end zone in 2010 are hoping for another win. This one will be even better, because it will be bipartisan.



Nobody denies the way Medicare pays doctors today is flawed. Every year, Congress has to increase the scheduled amount of money because if it did not, fees would drop by about one fifth. Many doctors would stop seeing Medicare beneficiaries.



There are two major differences between this so-called “fix” and previous ones. The first one is real: Previous increases have been offset by cuts to other government spending, and this one is not. The second one is fiction: That this doc fix is a permanent solution to the fee problem.



That fiction was debunked last week in a report published by Medicare’s Chief Actuary. First, the Chief Actuary has a significantly higher estimate of the gross cost of increasing physicians’ fees over the next 10 years than the CBO did. As shown in Table 1, the differences are trivial for the first few years, but they grow with time. Over the entire 11-year period, the Chief Actuary estimates the increase in payments will be $205 billion, $29 billion more than CBO’s estimate.





......

There is not really any good news in the Chief Actuary’s report. Yes, because H.R. 2 cuts some payments to hospitals, he estimates a $387 billion reduction in Medicare’s hospital “trust fund” liabilities. However, this is not very exciting because it amounts to less than two percent of that $20,385 billion liability, and only delays bankruptcy by one year from 2030 to 2031. Further, it is less than the $500 billion that the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates H.R. 2 will add to the national debt.



This so-called “doc fix” promises little reward to either physicians or taxpayers, and imposes new risks on both. This doc fix needs to be fixed, as I have proposed in a new Issue Brief.











Medicare Watch

2013 Fall #2

I understand the Max AV = Net Single Premium but I thought we do not recognize increasing death benefits under CVAT. Is the model solution incorrect in using the DB at t=3 * NSP factor at t =4?



Also, is the solution correct by dividing the Max AV by 1.035? I used the formula:



Max AV = AV(3) * (1+r) + Premiums*(1 - Load) - COI(4). Then we solve for the premium.





2013 Fall #2

2014 #4 part b.

Am I crazy, or is part a actually testing the assumption that incremental losses are proportional to cumulative losses to date? Not accident year independence. If you find that incremental ldfs are correlated, that suggested that expected incremental losses are dependent on not just cumulative losses to date but also the losses to date two ages prior (I.e. high development followed by low development). How does this violate accident year independence?





2014 #4 part b.

Question about deducting moving expenses on tax return

Okay my first question is more about the 'who can deduct moving expenses' requirements. I skimmed the IRS Publication 521, but I wanted to ask here because people like duke should be an expert in this subject.



Okay so I didn't actually move due to changing jobs. I moved because I'm a cheap actuary and was given the opportunity to live at MIL's house for next to nothing, so I had to jump on the deal. Also, I absolutely I learned that I hate living in a big city and would rather be in podunk. So I'm basically trying to bend the rules to get my moving expenses deductible. Here's the cliffs.

-I lived in LA and on the org chart worked in my company's LA office on the LG pricing team. I worked from home in my apartment in LA full-time, but on the org chart it said the office.

-In let's say March 2015 I'm still on the LG pricing team, but my location on the org chart changed to CAOPW. So that basically means anywhere in CA.

-In April 2015 I'm still on the LG pricing team, but I moved to some podunky town with I think 6k people in northern CA.



So my location on the org chart changed, and 1 month afterwards I moved. So that looks legit, but I never actually changed jobs. The 'place' of my new location is OPW so that's anywhere in CA, or the podunky town I moved to, for example.



What do you guys think. Can I pull this off? What if I take another job in the company within the next month or so that's also CAOPW. Will that help my guess? I'd say about 1000-1500 in moving expenses x 25% is at stake.



I did pretty good on the move. Paid 400 for the moving truck, another 400 for some guys to move my shit into the moving truck, 250 in gas for truck+my car, 75 in moving supplies. I also want to get my car deep cleaned because of the move, and would like to deduct that if I can? Also, what about some estimate of oil on my next oil change for 500 miles? Am I overthinking this... What I really want to do is figure out what the average cost for a normal person of moving 500 miles and just deduct that number, which is probably 3000-4000.



The more I think about this the "location" of my job changed, and one month later I moved there... Tax deductible, end of story.





Question about deducting moving expenses on tax return

Entry level help

Hey guys.



I am an entry level actuarial analyst/ student who is studying for exam c. I work in a&h and am having a hard time learning anything actuarial at work. My boss is the only actuary in my office so he has a lot of responsibilities and no time to teach me. For now I have been underwriting groups. My question is, is there any kind of supplemental material I can buy, download rent you name it in order to catch myself up in the insurance world, health insurance processe, possibly actuarial reporting and renewals? This is my first insurance job so its a huge learning curve especially since no one is really taking the time to show me anything.





Entry level help

How about an https connection for the AO?

Are there any plans to move the AO to a secure https connection. Currently, the site is sent to my browser as plain text. Https would keep anyone from spying on what pages I'm browsing.



Specifically, I'm no longer doing actuarial work for a large corporation, but if I was and I was browsing the job postings, my company could monitor that on http but not on https.



This would definitely up the privacy and security cred of the AO and it looks like both Firefox and Chrome are looking to deprecate http in the future by either restricting new HTML5 features to https or marking http connections as insecure instead of the current marking https as secure.



http://ift.tt/1yH9wN6

http://ift.tt/1yH9wN8





How about an https connection for the AO?

Fall 2013 LFV-U #8

I don't understand why you can skip the calculation of the expense reserve in this problem.



The value of the benefit reserve is 546.6, which I agree with.



The solution says 'since the maintenance expenses are a constant percentage of premium, there is no need to use the present value of expenses in the reserve calculation as the reserve will turn out the same'.



I don't understand how the reserve would turn out the same and still equal 546.6 if we incorporated the expense reserve.



Is it maybe trying to suggest that if we calculated the expense reserve, it would just equal the negative of the DAC anyway?



I happen to calculate a k factor for the expense reserve of 30%, so I got the time 4 Expense Reserve = -170, which doesn't equal the solution for DAC which is 121.6.



-----------------------------



I think I figured it out. Based on TIA there are 2 schools of thought when calculating the expense reserve...



1 - Include DAE when calculating the expense reserve (what I did)

2 - Exclude DAE when calculating the expense reserve



I think the solution assumed option 2 above, which would indeed result in 0 expense reserve at all future durations.



I guess this is one where you just have to choose one of the methods and explain it.





Fall 2013 LFV-U #8

2013 Fall LFV-U #8

wrong section..sorry!





2013 Fall LFV-U #8

A test to see you forgot Exam P wasn't a breeze

Ok if you are an actuary you should have no problem with this question. You should be able to solve this in your sleep because you are well passed exam P.



The probability of getting drunk on hard liquor is 50%, given you also drank a beer



The probability of getting drunk on a beer is 70%, given you had a liquor



Very simple

Calculate the probability of Getting drunk only on hard liquor, given you got drunk on either a beer or a liquor.



If you don't get this right in 30 seconds, you should go back to Exam P and give up credit for all other exams completed





A test to see you forgot Exam P wasn't a breeze

I need $550K to buy a foreclosure, got the other $230K.

I want to buy a foreclosure so I'll need $550K extra in cash. I'll then get a mortgage , should take a couple months max, and pay your money back. TIA!





I need $550K to buy a foreclosure, got the other $230K.

Group annuities (pricing/valuation)

Hi, I am a little confused about group annuities. Are there any difference between these and individual payout annuities from a pricing/valuation perspective? Any inputs are welcome...



One thing I can think of is (please correct me if I'm wrong since I have no idea what I'm talking about), since most group annuities are offered to pension plans, we need to model the accumulation phase in addition to the payout phase.



Thank you so much for helping. This could be a potential interview question for me soon.





Group annuities (pricing/valuation)

Fall 2013 # 9 and Spring 2014 # 1 (credibility question)

samedi 18 avril 2015

How come in calculating the expected claims,



Fall 2013 calculates corresponding expected claims as the (blended ratio*number of claims)/industry ratio





while spring 2014 calculates expected claims as just the blended ratio*claims?



Is it because fall 2013 is actual claims and spring 2014 is expected?





Fall 2013 # 9 and Spring 2014 # 1 (credibility question)

Long list of ponderances

I have assembled a list of outstanding things I don't quite get by paper. Feel free to chime in on any of them. Yes it is very long and I apologize, but the title was a hint.



SECTION A

BKM9:

1)How is it that buying less of stocks that are similar in nature to private business doesn't alter CAPM substantially, but bidding up hedge assets of the private firms unique risks does?

2)What is a good way to explain the clientele effect on liquidity (example).



BKM12:

1)Is forecasting error just the combination of the other information processing errors?



BKM13:

1)Is the e(it) term in the first stage regression a parameter in the 2nd stage, and if so is this value averaged when portfolios are introduced to reduce volatility?

2)What does the phrase "highly correlated with its self and the true market" mean in the critique of using a proxy to the true market.



SECTION B

Hull 4:

1)Why are treasury rates understated version of true risk free rate.



BKM16:

1)Does effective duration incorporate inflation if we model price change that way?



Hull 7:

1)If CMOs are called CDO^2, are MBS a CDO?

2)For CMO tranches short to long, what is the interplay of definition with a general CDO tranche junior to senior? Are they completely different?



Feldblum ALM

1)Feldblum says P&C has inflation sensitive liabilities. Panning says that FV causes total firm value to be much higher than just CEV. Could this be a legitimate tie-together as to why longer term bonds would be recommended? Or should we focus on the premium cash flow prevents need to have short term so P&C enjoys extra yield from long term?



SECTION C

Hull 23:

1) Are corporates more illiquid than risk free of same maturity?

2) What are some examples of vi instruments in the CVA procedure?



Cummins CAT

1)Why are we investing in high rated bonds but then swapping the fixed for an inflation sensitive return? Why not just buy an inflation sensitive bond? Do those not exist?



Goldfarb:

1)How would we adjusted the RAROC for stranded capital charge (decrease/increase) and why?



Stulz:

1)Does higher expected Bankruptcy cost mean "given bankruptcy it is worse" or "more likely to incur bankruptcy" or both?



SECTION D

McClenahan:

1)How do we recognize infrastructure in an example? Paper doesn't seem to address aside from mentioning they should be valued as bought at the front and sold at the end.

2)When adjusting the U in Robbin, the PHSF are credited with the portfolio or new money rates. McClenahan says opportunity cost should be calculated at the risk free rates. Why the difference in methods (is Robbin's offset not reflecting opportunity cost to PH)?



Felblum IRR:

1)In the discussion on different policy forms, what kind of IRR model would make no distinction between excess coverage, etc?



Ferari:

1)I don't see Increase Premium to Surplus leads to decrease in Underwriting Profitability. Is this not one of the relationships?



Roth:

1)How is surplus paid in, by which I mean what is the market dynamic? At issue are we requiring that shares are sold to gain the surplus/capital?

2)How would a mutual company account for surplus paid in since they can't issue stock?



Robbin:

1)Why does PVI/PVE method exist? What is it trying to accomplish; some sort of discounted average of the year to year CYROE?



Mango:

1)Why are we bothering with the binomial approximation (is each event loss case a unique independent catastrophe)?

2)For Covariance Share, are we free to use subjective weights if we just say "Mango said we can use subjective weights and mine are simpler"?





Long list of ponderances

SOA WA 21

Can someone explain to me what I'm doing wrong here?







My attempt:



Let be the number of years of service. Then

for integers



and for integers .



Then

giving the solution of 4 years of service. This obviously isn't right.



What am I doing wrong here?





SOA WA 21

Marcel Finan's book/Joint Distributions

I am trying to do 39.16 in http://ift.tt/1z0IN87



My thought is to find the P(X< sqrt (Y)) I would double integrate the function they give which is x+y for 0<=x, y<=1 and 0 otherwise. I cannot figure out the boundaries from and to where I need the double integration.



The boundaries given are -inf to 0 for x and -inf to 1 for y. I made the box. But, Obviously using these as boundaries only give me inf or -inf.



Thank you all for your help in this problem. :)





Marcel Finan's book/Joint Distributions

Failed due to typos

I have just submitted my FA yesterday... Its really crazy when I figured out I had a typo in Task 6. I have justified all things for task 1-5 but I incorrectly copied 1 sentence in Task 6. This sentence was a heading of some part that I am writing about. The content was already mentioned in my above single tasks. Do you know if there is already any reason of failing due to typo? The grader certainly knew that it was typo because I already mentioned in the previous tasks. So sad if this is gonna make me fail.





Failed due to typos

Test taking pointers?

Can anyone provide practical advice on test taking skills for this exam? Things like, "really read the question," aren't too productive, while they are needed to answer a problem.



Here's a list of things I've thought of:

  • Find the actual "prompt" of the question before scanning the provided data, e.g., "...calculate premium for the large deductible policy..."

  • For reserving questions, determine if you need a result for a single AY (if so, is it the least mature or not?), all given AYs individually, or the total across all experience

  • For ULAE problems, be careful how reserves are provided, i.e., pure IBNR, IBNER, or case O/S

  • It's better to attempt an entire problem, than waste time on 1 part of the question

  • If low on time and a sub-question is dependent on prior parts, make an assumption of the prior answers to answer the question

  • For written questions, give enough statements knowing each statement is worth ~0.25 pt

  • For a non-trivial calculation problem (i.e., >= 2 pt), take 5 - 10 s to think how the answer should be presented

  • For reserving questions calculating LDFs, don't forget to include a tail factor even if it's 1.0




I suck at test taking skills, so I'd appreciate any advice!





Test taking pointers?

FPT reserve calc

On SOA spring 2014 solution, question 9, page 28:



The FPT reserves does not subtract the C[1] from the equation when getting the FPT EA while the CRVM did. Is this correct?



Thanks





FPT reserve calc

If this is fat, what am I?

http://ift.tt/1Dx4bH3



People saying Selena Gomez is fat in this pic, you agree?





If this is fat, what am I?

Cummins v. Robbin Required/Risk Adj Rate of Return

What is the difference between:



Cummins Required Rate of Underwriting Return --> -(Liab i) x Risk Free Rate + Betai x (Market Rate - Risk Free Rate)



And



Robbins Risk Adjusted Rate (From Method 6) --> Risk Free Rate + Betai x (Market Rate - Risk Free Rate) ?



Thanks!





Cummins v. Robbin Required/Risk Adj Rate of Return

daily tasks of an Entry level Actuarial assistant/analyst the first year?

For an entry level assistant/analyst, what exactly are their daily duties the first 1 to 2 years?? Do they start off with programming, analysis, graphs, trends, modeling right away, or is it more of basic spreadsheets and sql output, and then gradually move to 'analysis and coding' once they get to the associate level?



The only reason I ask is because I'm currently an analyst for a P&C company, and I'm curious how relevant my experience are once I try to move to actuarial (and if it's not, I want to find a way to get more relevant experience).



My current role is 85% report updating. We have a lot of complex reports that needs to be updated weekly, monthly, quarterly, but all the queries and macros were already built, so most of the time, I either just need to change the date on a query, or I just follow a set of written instructions.



The rest of the time, I would help my project manager with pulling data. So for example, if she wants to do a rate change, I would do some quotes against competitors, put it in a nice spreadsheet so she can see where we stand.



As of now, there aren't a lot of 'complex programming or data manipulation' involved. I use lookups a lot, IF statements, put stuff in pivots, and write up basic queries to pull data (maybe less than 50 lines), but's really nothing glamourous or impressive(in my opinion).





daily tasks of an Entry level Actuarial assistant/analyst the first year?

New affordable alarm system tracks every movement in your home

You can wirelessly turn off or arm your alarm system using your iPhone



It's called "vivint Sky



And it sends the activity log to this 24/hour agent staff to protect you from burglary, but



I find it comical how this works domestically for families? A spouse can track when the husband is using the bathroom, to the minute. A group in Ohio knows every time there was movement in a hallway even when system is disarmed...what time a door was opened and shut.



Photos of who is at your door



The system is only $50/month. Would you want this system in your home?





New affordable alarm system tracks every movement in your home

Propensity Score and Bias

So I'm thinking about propensity scores in general.



P is the probability that someone is in the intervention group. And p is also the measure being used to match people between the intervention and reference population.



There are multiple ways to use the propensity score to match members between the two populations, some with replacement and some without.



Either way, I would imagine that when you look at both the intervention and the reference population, you will end up having members in the intervention population with much higher p scores than in the reference population, simply by the definition of a p score.



So for p scores > 0.5 you are matching a bunch of members in the intervention population with a much smaller number of members in the reference population.



So if you use w/o replacement, you will likely have to throw out a lot of members in the intervention population (I am assuming that you will somewhat quickly exhaust your pool of reference members with high p scores) So you will run into credibility issues and will have spent all this money intervening for this members but you won't be able to assess their outcome.



On the other hand if you use w/ replacement, then your results will be very sensitive to this small reference population that have p scores > 0.5.





Also it seems that the bulk of your intervention population will have p scores > 0.5, which really exacerbates this issue.



I do think that having p represent the probability of being in the intervention is really a genuine technique for achieving comparability/equivalence b/w to the two populations. But unless the total sample is very large to account for the two issues I mentioned (having to throw out a bunch of intervention members or matching a large intervention population to a small reference population) the propensity score method seems to not be very practical and would otherwise (w/ small to moderate size population) be biased.



I can't imagine the SOA would come up with a question that would require us to consider these things, but I guess I find this part of the material more interesting.





Propensity Score and Bias

Designing Arbitrage

I'm pretty bad at designing arbitrage. I understand we want to find items that are mispriced and exploit it by buy/sell it if it is under/over priced. But I get lost in how to actually execute it (how much of what I need to buy when).



Any tips?





Designing Arbitrage

Technical Skills Interview

Okay, so I had an interview and the guy wants to bring me back for a "computer skills test". He says they want to challenge me and this kind of scares the crap out of me, because I think they expect me to have more advanced knowledge than I actually have.



The interview is for some sort of new open ended analyst position. I'm not even sure if it's technically an actuarial position; it's some data analyst position here with the government. He just basically said that they have huge amounts of data and they want to make sense of it and make projections.



The job sounds very interesting to me. They want me to have "advanced knowledge" of excel, and they also want me to be familiar with Access, SQL, and VBA. I hinted that I didn't know VBA very well. He also mentioned PowerPivot in excel, and it's an add-on that I can't get on my current version. I'll have to tell him that I've never used PowerPivot.



Anyway, I'm reasonably decent with "advanced excel functions" and feel that I could practice enough to be prepared. I'm going to blast through an online SQL course to refresh my skills. Does anybody know a good resource for Access? I did use the TIA course (and I'll go through it again), but I found that it didn't teach me much.



Last, but not least. Lately, I've been severely sleep-deprived. First, it was jet-lag (which always kills me), then it was a stressful event which affected my sleep. I've been so sleep deprived that I feel my mind going to mush. Can only get a few hours a night. I want to postpone the interview. Is it a bad idea to postpone?





Technical Skills Interview

If healthy but 133% of FPL, are you Medicaid eligible?

vendredi 17 avril 2015

Before 2010 vs After 2010



Question 1:

Before 2010, what made you eligible for Medicaid?



Question 2:

Now is being 133% or Lower of FPL and US citizenship the ONLY requirements for Medicaid eligibility?

(Example: Suppose you are at 133% FPL but it's because you by choice decided you don't feel like paying for the services Medicaid covers, so you choose to not work on purpose to keep an income at exactly 133% of FPL to reap the system. Is this the only Medicaid eligibility requirement? Or does this not satisfy being categorically needy?



Question 3:

What services does Social Security DI trust fund cover of a person who is disabled?



Question 4:

Is it possible to be eligible for all three: Social security DI benefits, Medicare medical and Rx services related to the same disability, Medicaid



disabled with kidney failure, age 35, having worked 13 calendar quarters

If so, which of these services would be the primary payer? How would the benefits be coordinated?



Or is DI from social security simply a cash distribution regardless of medical necessity?





If healthy but 133% of FPL, are you Medicaid eligible?

Venter Non-tail measures

how to tell if one co-measure is marginal decomposition. As mentioned in paper, there can be many co-measures but only one marginal decomposition.

in the example of standard deviation, how would you know h(y)=y-E(Y), L(Y)=y-E(Y)/Std(Y) and r(Xj)=Cov(Xj,Y)/std(Y) is the marginal decomposition?

Thanks in advance.





Venter Non-tail measures

Marshall: calculation of CoV???

The paper doesnt talk about the formulas to calculate the CoV for the three risks, does it?.. It says the calculation is in some spreadsheet, but i dont see that spreadsheet anywhere. I know TIA and CF have detailed calculation. But can we assume they will not ask any question on calculation of CoV?...(well, I haven't done 2013, 2014 exams, maybe they already did...)





Marshall: calculation of CoV???

Benchmark vs Bid for Medicare Part D?

The 2012 study manual says that the system for Medicare Part D



Is if Benchmark > Bid

75% of the Benchmark minus bid gets added to plan

+ Bid



If bid > benchmark, excess of bid minus benchmark is member cost?



But

Now it says this is for MA plans part a and b



For Part D it is Average of the bids? What does this mean?





Benchmark vs Bid for Medicare Part D?

What if we're just some alien's pets?

I mean, cats and dogs don't really realize that they're our pets, what if we're someone else's pets? What then?





What if we're just some alien's pets?

ASM MFE Manual for sale

ASM MFE Manual for sale $50

9th edition 5th printing by Abraham Weishaus



Great condition



send me a message if you want it, I am in Toronto Canada





ASM MFE Manual for sale

Favorite and Least Favorite

What is your favorite and least favorite paper on the syllabus. List and briefly describe why.





Favorite and Least Favorite

CSP U - 2011 Spring #13

How would you interpret the following:



"The annual annuity benefit that can be purchased at the end of each policy year on a current basis is 105% of the annual annuity benefit that can be purchased on a valuation basis".



I took this to mean if the valuation basis annuity benefit is $100, then the current basis annuity benefit would be $105.



The model solution seems to have flipped this and says that the current basis annuity benefit would be $100 * (1/1.05).



What am I missing?





CSP U - 2011 Spring #13

Recruiter told me he'd let me know as soon as he got feedback

I had an onsite interview this week that seemed to have gone well. The company recruiter has been great to me and very responsive. Replied to my emails within minutes. He indicated that he gave the interviewer until today to make a decision, and that he'd contact me as soon as he received feedback. It's 5:15pm over there, but I emailed him an hour before to ask if he had talked with the interviewer today. He never responded. Is this just another soft way of saying I was rejected?





Recruiter told me he'd let me know as soon as he got feedback

Statistics Question #873

So I have a data set that looks roughly exponential, and I want to be able to fit linear equations to the data such that I end up with 4 different lines which will best fit 4 different ranges of my x variable. Is there a good way to do this other than just experimenting?



I'm not sure if what I explained makes sense but thanks for any help.





Statistics Question #873

We need some act-ion!

Totally going to see Kung Fury on opening night



http://ift.tt/1CPHE5F





We need some act-ion!

Rehabilitation

I have some conflicting notecards about rehabilitation. It is either referred to as:



- Bankruptcy process in which insurance company is prepared to either continue as a business entity or prepared for liquidation.



- Bankruptcy in which insurance company continues as a business entity in which creditors are satisfied through future earnings.



Which is it?





Rehabilitation

Life RBC determination. Question from page LR027

My consulting actuary (Bill) performed RBC C-3 Phase I CFT for 2014 and the result is zero (i.e., no negative surplus arises in aggregate for the CFT projection). As a result we book zero for line 33 on page LR027. Line 34, sub-total interest rate risk, has instruction that if line 33 is zero, to use line 32. Therefore we booked $1.0M in line 34 for C-3 risk.



Another consulting actuary (John) advised us that since we performed RBC C-3 Phase I and have a $0 result, we should use a $1 dollar entry in line 33 of LR027. If we put a $1 in line 33, our total interest rate risk would be ½ of current $1.0M (see instructions in line 34).



John argues that if we had a $1 in the CFT, we would achieve the same result. It is logical to conclude that this is an acceptable practice. It is John's belief that it was never considered that the answer might be $0, as opposed to not performing the testing which would result in a $0 in this field, however different conclusions should be drawn.



Please let me know if you have some thoughts on this matter.

Regards,





Life RBC determination. Question from page LR027

Why is buying a new car so difficult?

I usually buy used, but used car prices are so high relative to new (thanks, Cash for Clunkers!) that this time I decided to buy new.



I go to the dealer, they quote me a trade-in value (I thought a bit low, but my car is a beater, so even +/- 20% is not a huge deal, so I agree). Then we negotiate a price on a new car. I'm thinking, wow that was easy. I literally have a pen in my hand to sign and the salesperson says "because we gave you such a great price on the car, we can't honor the trade-in quote." I leave. Next day, salesperson calls me, "When are you coming to pick up your car?" WTF?



Go to the site of a dealer a friend recommended. There's a car I like with an "internet price" of $X for an automatic and a button that says "confirm this price." I go through the process, get back an email for $(X+1500) for a manual transmission. WTF?



Talk to a salesperson. He tells me he has a car for $X. "It's an automatic?" "Yes." "It really is $X. You are not wasting my time driving out there for a car that doesn't exist?" "No" "I'm taking my checkbook. I'm ready to buy THIS car." "OK" I get there. "The car is gone. I have this other car for $(X+2000). WTF? And FU!





Why is buying a new car so difficult?

Source of Profits Study Note

Does anyone have the new Source of Profits study note that they are able to share with me? THe SOA study notes are no longer available for purchase.





Source of Profits Study Note

Bees!

Your firearms are useless against them!



http://ift.tt/1yC0lha





Bees!

Britt McHenry Suspended By ESPN After Fat-Shaming Video Surfaces

http://ift.tt/1OOkXqa



In no way, shape, or form was this a "meltdown" due to a "stressful situation." It's a moment that shows her true self-entitled ignorance and arrogance.



She's a great example of what happens when you tell your kids how pretty and how great they are 500x a day. Ugh, what an idiot.



/soapbox






Quote:








ESPN has suspended Britt McHenry for one week, effective immediately, after a video surfaced of the Washington D.C.-based reporter berating a woman working for a towing company.





McHenry can be heard repeatedly and mercilessly attacking the employee in what appears to be security footage of the incident. Among the things said:

(NSFW WARNING LANGUAGE)




Spoiler:




- “I’m in the news, sweetheart.”

- “I will ****ing sue this place.”

- “That’s why I have a degree and you don’t.”

- “I wouldn’t work in a scumbag place like this.”

- “Makes my skin crawl even being here.”

- “Yep, that’s all you care about is just taking people’s money. With no education, no skill set, just wanted to clarify that.”

- “Do you feel good about your job?

- “So I can be a college dropout and do the same thing?”

- “Why? Because I have a brain? And you don’t?”

- “Maybe if I was missing some teeth they would hire me, huh?”

- “‘Cause they [the employee’s teeth] look so stunning … ‘Cause I’m on television and you’re in a ****ing trailer, honey.”

- “Lose some weight, baby girl.”







In a statement published to Twitter on Thursday, McHenry apologized for her actions:



In an intense and stressful moment, I allowed my emotions to get the best of me and said some insulting and regrettable things. As frustrated as I was, I should always choose to be respectful and take the high road. I am so sorry for my actions and will learn from this mistake.








Britt McHenry Suspended By ESPN After Fat-Shaming Video Surfaces

Fall 2014 Exam ST- problem 16

Does anyone know how they calculated the sample variance in problem 16 of the Fall exam? Mahler's solutions don't spell out how he got it, and maybe my brain is just too fried, but I'm not seeing it. I've tried all the sample variance formulas I can think of.

Thanks!





Fall 2014 Exam ST- problem 16

Berating parking attendants

http://ift.tt/1OOkUe3



sounds like someone we know!





Berating parking attendants

My experience getting hit hard in the junk

When I used to hang out with my "friends" in High School, they often laughed and laughed when they saw a video of someone being violently injured.



So, I decided to impress them, I need to endure a large amount of pain for no reason.



So I paid a homeless guy to sneak up and kick me in the junk really hard twice a day.



It cost me $900 a month, but it was the best money I've ever spend, he got his homeless buddy to shoot some video and now I'll be sure to impress all those people from High School I haven't spoken to in 20 years!





My experience getting hit hard in the junk

Strategy when stocks are at record highs, always sell out 25-33%?

I don't see how this strategy can't work almost every time.



After the record high, if market continues to go up up up, you sell out a little more at different levels of up....slowly



If market goes down enough you repurchase the stock you sold





The more volatile the market patterns are, the more frequently you rebalance



But with a 68% invested I feel good on both ends of the spectrum.

Yes! I made money today!

Or otherwise

Yes! If I were to repurchase the shares I sold, I will have more shares in total than I would have had yesterday!



But at record high I'm basically betting on there's not more up left for it to go in the short-term future and so I'm preparing for the bear market, but should it go up more by surprise, I still want some slice of the pie.





Strategy when stocks are at record highs, always sell out 25-33%?

Animal Control Needs to do its job!!!

What does a person have to do to get someone to take care of all the dogs that run free in Lighthouse Lakes? I have called the county Animal Control Office on numerous occasions to no avail. I have called on the same group of dogs at least five times.



A couple of Saturdays ago, five different stray dogs ran through my yard. I called Animal Control and left a message. Big surprise, not! I have yet to receive a return phone call. I also called and left a message for the Sheriff. I am still waiting on a return call from him. I'm not holding my breath! There are too many children that play out here, including my neighbors' grandchildren, for this not to be taken seriously. I am about to the point that I am going to buy a gun, get a permit to carry and start shooting every stray dog that shows up on my property.



Enough is enough! Do something before someone gets attacked, because I assure you if it is me or any of the grandchildren, I will sue.





Animal Control Needs to do its job!!!

Interactions in your model

Hi



I'm working on a fleet glm and I'm currently testing interactions. I have a couple of queries regarding this topic...



1. In some cases I am getting a significant interaction between two factors even though the simple factors themselves are not significant. Does this make sense or is it plausible for these types of interactions to form part of a good model.



2. Should you test an interaction for consistency. Given my dataset isn't very large this is not very feasible in a lot of interactions but just wanted to get peoples opinions on this.



Thanks





Interactions in your model

Life Insurer Soliciting cancellations?

From another Board I'm on:




Quote:








I just got a call from the owners of my 30 year term life policy. I bought it back in '99 from (Company), but this was some other company that partners with them. I had expected him to try to get me to convert it to Whole Life or something, so I told him right up front I wasn't interested. But then he crossed me up and told me he was advising me to drop the policy, since the odds were against me ever getting paid for it.



I<snip>So he was spouting all sorts of statistics at me, like "there's only a 2% chance it will ever pay off" - duh!, that's why it's insurance. "Nobody would ever go to a casino if they only had a 2% chance of winning" - they play the lottery, though, don't they? "It will get too expensive and you'll eventually drop it, so might as well do it now" - 30 years of premiums will only total 8.5% of the policy value. He was jolly the whole time, and kept saying "I bet you didn't expect me to recommend this, did you?"



So, what was that all about? I got the policy back before there were changes in the insurance industry regarding term life, and I think it's pretty damn cheap. Especially for someone with diabetes, high BP, and high cholesterol. I wonder if they got hold of my medical records (didn't have any of those back when I got the policy). Or if it's just a policy with too high a payout for the price? Any ideas from those in the know?



My guess: the original company sold its book of business to this company and the new reinsurer of the block of business is trying to convince people who are likely to have higher mortality to drop the policy.





Life Insurer Soliciting cancellations?

Study hours for new MLC versus other exams

Directed mainly at those who passed one of the 2014 MLC exams and those that keep some record of how many hours they study, although also looking for anyone's input...



I can get about a maximum of 180 hours by April 28th, and I've put in about 150 for the previous 3. How much more relative studying/time did you require to be prepared for MLC compared to the prior exams? Maybe up to 20% more? ;-)



Anything more than 1.5x... then I'm probably a lost cause lol.



Thanks for your input. :toth:





Study hours for new MLC versus other exams

Top Coaching Actuaries Blogs of the week






Top Coaching Actuaries Blogs of the week

Best old exams

Hi,



Between, 2012, 2013 and 2014, which ones are the best to take in terms of learning value? I don't have time to do all 3, but will do 1 or 2 of them before the exam. Thanks.





Best old exams

American Actors Who Can Do Good British Accents?

I can't think of any. On the flip side there are countless Brits who show up on American television and film with very convincing American accents.





American Actors Who Can Do Good British Accents?

Lousiest Albums From Bands You Like

Here are some of the lousiest albums from musical acts I like or liked at one time. Feel free to add yours.



“Inarticulate Speech of The Heart,” Van Morrison, 1983. Van the Man is one of the greatest musical artists around. But this ’83 release combined a slew of sub-par songs with a muddled, cheesy, 80’s techno-synthesizer sound to produce an experience that left many fans wishing he’d sat that one out. Hey Van, the 80’s sound was for 20-somethings with weirdo hairdos, not aging Irish soul singers with too much time on their hands. Even the greats make a misstep sometimes.



“American Dream,” Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young, 1988. As if their bumbling 1985 appearance at Live Aid weren’t embarrassing enough, this pathetic album left me wanting to murder every aging, overweight hippie I saw. Neil Young says he goes where the music takes him, even if it’s in the ditch. In this case it was an overflowing cesspool, and the a-hole dragged the rest of us along with him. Boo hiss!



“Rattle and Hum,” U2, 1988 or 1989, can’t remember and would prefer to forget. I no longer care for or listen to U2, but when I was a wee lad in the 80’s I liked them. That began to change when this screechy piece of shite came out. Hey wankers, sometimes ideas that sound real good late at night over a beer don’t work out too well in the light of day, which is something that this tired, pompous album never should have seen. I need to avoid slender, sharp objects if the live version of “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For” from this disc should come on, as ripping apart my ear drums seems preferable to enduring a single, off-key, self-righteous note from this torture track.



Those are mine. What are yours?





Lousiest Albums From Bands You Like

Cookie Butter

jeudi 16 avril 2015

Why has no one told me of this???



Is it a secret everyone is keeping for themselves or does it only sound amazing but is really awful and you're saving me the trouble?



http://ift.tt/1C2a2la





Cookie Butter

I want to go on an adventure

So I went on an 8 mile day hike last weekend, and I think I've caught some sort of hiking bug because I found myself looking at every hiking trail within 100 miles for what I want to tackle this summer. I really, really love being out in nature. Moreover, I have an overwhelming urge to walk somewhere really really high up and be able to turn around in a circle and know that there is no higher ground for a thousand miles.



To that end, I was looking at the trail to the summit of Mt Whitney (highest point in the lower 48) ... and it's surprisingly doable. Not exactly easy by any means but I don't have to be some sort of spider-fingered badass freak to do it or spend a fortune on equipment or hire any sherpas - it's just 11 miles of uphill walking and 11 miles of downhill walking.



Problem is you have to reserve a permit well in advance to make an attempt and it would be difficult to acquire one for this season. So I'm seriously planning on going for it in 2016. Going to make a week vacation of it and hit nearby Las Vegas and Grand Canyon as well.



Has anyone attempted anything like this? Any advice? For one thing I'm worried about altitude issues. They sound disturbing. Stuff like your brain and lungs getting screwed up badly in some cases. I'm also worried about training for it - I live in the Midwest and there's really not much in the way of mountains out here. I guess I could stairmaster all day but that doesn't sound fun. Also planning on doing some lengthy day hikes to get used to walking for 15 hours.



Background: I'm in decent shape. I can run a half marathon in about 1:45:00. I was a boy scout so I've been on plenty of long hikes back in the day and know how to survive. I'm sure I can get some poor gullible sap to come along with me.



I'll also be logging some of the day hikes I do over the year here. If you're interested in that sort of thing I'll provide reviews for some hiking areas. Also if you know any good day hikes in Ohio or nearby, I'd love the recommendations.



Thanks in advance!





I want to go on an adventure

F2014 #19

So part b says "briefly describe" but the answers listed in the ER are gigantic. Hard to know exactly what would have been acceptable especially because the level of detail in the answers is really fine. Anybody have an idea of if they really meant the answers as written and how that reconciles to briefly describe?





F2014 #19

F2014 #19

So part b says "briefly describe" but the answers listed in the ER are gigantic. Hard to know exactly what would have been acceptable especially because the level of detail in the answers is really fine. Anybody have an idea of if they really meant the answers as written and how that reconciles to briefly describe?



Ignore this thread - meant to put it in the 6 thread.





F2014 #19

Alternatives to Quicken

I've got Quicken 2012.



One of the nice features of it is that it downloads transactions from all of my accounts (checking, savings, credit cards, 401k) & I can easily see all of the balances.



The other nice feature is the calendar where I can see future expenses/income & make sure I've got enough in the bank to cover it all.



Here's the problem: Quicken 2012 is discontinuing the download service & wants me to upgrade to the 2015 version in order continue that feature.



It's $40 for the "Starter" version which "Does NOT transfer existing data from other Quicken versions" which is pretty stupid.



It's $65 for the "Deluxe" version which does.



So, my question to you is, is there something out there that will suit my needs for a better price?





Alternatives to Quicken

actuarial outpost logo

is that supposed to be a qx and a px as in chance of dying/survival, or what?



somehow never noticed this logo before





actuarial outpost logo

Loretta Lynch nomination

Politics at its finest hour:



http://ift.tt/1yynh0l




Quote:








White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest called out Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) on Thursday after Grassley blamed Democrats for not confirming Loretta Lynch while they controlled the Senate.



Earnest accused Grassley of being "duplicitous" when he said earlier this week that Democrats could have confirmed Lynch in December before they handed over control of the Senate to Republicans. Last year, Grassley had urged Democrats to wait until Republicans took control of the Senate before beginning Lynch's confirmation hearings.



During the White House press briefing on Thursday, Earnest said Grassley made an "astounding display of duplicity," which he said was sad because Grassley had a reputation as "somebody who is true to his word." Earnest also suggested that perhaps Grassley, who was first elected to the House in 1974 and the Senate in 1980, had been in Washington too long.





Earlier this week, Grassley said that Democrats could have confirmed Loretta Lynch in last year if they had wanted to. But back in September, Grassley urged Democrats to wait until Republicans had control of the upper chamber.



“Rather than rush a nominee through the Senate in a lame-duck session, I hope the president will now take his time to nominate a qualified individual who can start fresh relationships with Congress so that we can solve the problems facing our country,” Grassley said in September.



In a statement, Grassley spokesperson Beth Levine said that the White House was "rewriting history." Democrats, she said, could have confirmed Lynch last year, but instead chose to push through federal judges.



"If nothing else, the White House certainly is good at rewriting history. The fact of the matter is that when Eric Holder announced his intention to step down in September, Senate Democrats had a 55 seat majority. If you believe the White House and Senate Democrats had Republicans’ best interests in mind when they delayed consideration of the Lynch nomination last fall, you hadn’t watched how Harry Reid ran the Senate," Levine said. " It was abundantly clear then – just as it is now – that Senate Democrats’ priorities didn’t include the Lynch nomination."



It has been 159 days since Obama nominated Lynch to replace Attorney General Eric Holder. While the Senate Judiciary Committee voted to send Lynch's nomination to the full Senate in February, Earnest said on Thursday that she has waited longer than the last seven Attorney General nominees combined for the full body to confirm her. On Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said that he would try to force a vote on Lynch's nomination.



Republicans have refused to move on Lynch's nomination until a standoff over an anti-sex trafficking bill is resolved. Democrats have refused to support the bill because it contains anti-abortion language.



This story has been updated to include comment from a Grassley spokesperson.








Loretta Lynch nomination

Asked to meet with someone else during interview

Scheduled to meet only the hiring manager (SVP of P&C) and in the end, he asked me to meet with a SVP of Pensions. I interviewed for a job in P&C but he insisted that I meet with a SVP in pensions. Has anyone ever had this happen? I'm not sure what the purpose is.





Asked to meet with someone else during interview

Fitbit Life






Fitbit Life

Spring 2012 1(d)

1. Lower lapse rates lead to lower mortality than normal.



Why does the solution to 1.d.(ii) say:



Mortality

• As a result of fewer lapses of unhealthy lives, overall mortality should deteriorate compared to original standalone UL product.





Spring 2012 1(d)

Creative Writing Class

I regularly got A's for 'out of the box' thinking in Creative Writing Class.


  • Bike

  • Education

  • Football

  • Pasta

  • Sardine

  • Shrine

  • Smell

  • Stew

  • Value

  • Wholesaler




Makes a great story.





Creative Writing Class

Great Jobs to Learn Skills Relevant to Actuarial Work

Hello everyone!



I live in Toronto, Canada. It's very tough here to get a job as an actuary. I'm currently in limbo, working a shitty part-time job, studying for my third actuary exam. I want a job where I can learn relevant computer skills that would help me get a job as an actuary. What are those jobs? Data analyst? Financial analyst? Benefits Analyst? What is the BEST job to learn SQL, VBA, R, etc., and other relevant computer languages that actuaries use?



Thanks to everyone that contributes!





Great Jobs to Learn Skills Relevant to Actuarial Work

Marriage and Taxes

Since marriage and taxes have been topics du jour on here lately, here is a calculator from our friends at 538 that shows how much you either gain or are penalized by being married.



Just input in your and your spouse's incomes and it will show you how much you save or take it up the *** thanks to the Federal Government.



Greenwoman and I pay an extra $5200 because we are married and file jointly compared to if we were not married and both filed as single.





Marriage and Taxes

Machine Readable Annual Statements

Hey I got a question. Is there any regulatory initiative out there for companies to have machine readable versions of their annual statements available? Or are these already available.



For example, I am thinking you could have an annual statement in easy-to-parse JSON format with all the elements easily extractable via programming. Would there be a market out there for this? Does it already exist?





Machine Readable Annual Statements

Promised Exam Raise

I accepted my first job out of college shortly before taking an exam, and was told that if I pass I would recieve the standard exam raise. Well, I approached my manager on Monday with the results, and was told, that since I took the exam before I started working I am not eligible for the raise... Huh? :/



I did not have this part of the agreement in writing (offer letter), so I only have our conversation to base this on. I feel somewhat cheated and lied to.



I am not necessary complaining about the 4-5k I am missing out on, more so the shadiness of everything, but this is bullshit.



Not the way I wanted to start off with my firm.





Promised Exam Raise

A Question about Volunteer Actuary-ing

So, I recently had a friend ask me for actuarial assistance. He basically wants a file that computes the value of life annuities and lump sums given an interest rate and a mortality model. I actually work in P&C, but that's not a very difficult request and I happen to have a spreadsheet from college that can be edited a little to do that. It's no skin off my back to share a non-work file, and I like helping people.



However, it sounds like he will be using this spreadsheet for something work related. My question is, how do I go about providing it to him ethically and safely? My impulse is to put a note on the spreadsheet saying that it is for personal use only, but I wanted to see what everyone thought. I'm not disclosing anything from work and I'm not being paid, so I don't see any actual ethic issue, but I want to make sure I cross all my t's and double-dot all my annuities-due.



Any input helps. :wink: Except snarky, unhelpful input. That is, by definition, unhelpful. :aypi:





A Question about Volunteer Actuary-ing

Black suit to interview?

I hear that it is a faux pas to wear a black suit to an interview, from a few posters here who think of themselves as more informed members of society.



However, I think black suits look nice, and I think is the most common colour suit when I see people interview. What is your opinion? I don't remember if anyone else has already done this poll, I tried to search for one but I couldn't find one.





Black suit to interview?

Life Insurance Liability Durations

Alright, life people. I bumped a couple of threads in the finance subforum with questions on calculating liability durations for life insurance. Since you may not all be checking that subforum regularly, I am hoping you can weigh in with your thoughts on these threads:



http://ift.tt/1b1w93D



http://ift.tt/1b1wbIX



Thanks!





Life Insurance Liability Durations

Players React to Aaron Hernandez Guilty

http://ift.tt/1b1w8wR



My question is do they mean NFL players who play NFL football?



Or do they mean "playas" as in the opposite of playa haters

Who swing with the women in the limousine, you feel what I'm saying?



How are players reacting to Aaron Hernandez guilty verdict?



If they mean other NFL football players, I'm sure it's shock and surprise at their teammate

But if it's NFL players (as in those athletes among the NFL who are players like in context of Big Pun song "don't wanna be a player no more, I'm not a player I just crush a lot")



It might be more "darn he couldn't pull the defense bro, we better not try this cuz even if you say there ain't no doubt, they is sayin "no reasonable doubt", man so don't go there. If you are a player, change your game bro.



But nothin wrong with the game or the game behind the game. I got game you got game he got game - Public Enemy





Players React to Aaron Hernandez Guilty

AO 2016 US Presidential Election Challenge!

The AO has a lot of election prediction "artists." Some of them are better than others. Yours truly was the first to point out when Romney was finished in 2012.



This year, I'd like to do something a bit different.



I AM CALLING THE ELECTION NOW. Republicans win the US Presidency in 2016. Book it.



Oh, you disagree? Then maybe you should put your money where your mouth is. Maybe I will too.



Let's say I will accept bets to the contrary and I will GIVE YOU TEH FIELD ( :lol: ).



You bet me X.

If a Republican wins you pay me X.

However, if a Republican does NOT win, I pay you X * ln(X).

Minimum bet = $5.

Max bet = $1,000



Any potential takers to this arrangement?





AO 2016 US Presidential Election Challenge!

RIP Tom Raper, Raper of RVs






RIP Tom Raper, Raper of RVs

Graph-based approach to insurance/risk management?

I've been studying economics from a network/graph theory based approach and so far it looks really cool. For example, for reinsurance/retrocession agreements you can construct a who-insures-whom graph to get a bird's eye view of the insurance network and analyze systemic risk.



Anyone look into this or see papers/books about it? Is this approach being used in industry?





Graph-based approach to insurance/risk management?

Novation vs. Runoff

Is there some sort of logic for why the payment from the reinsurer in a novation is treated as a reduction to premium, while the payment in a runoff agreement is recorded as a paid loss?



I'm trying to figure out a way to memorize these types of differences, since I keep mixing them up in my head.





Novation vs. Runoff

Riddle for the AO

Find the next word in the following sequence (from an IQ test):


  • Bottle

  • Girl

  • Son

  • Lightbulb

  • Penguin







Riddle for the AO

Applied to 2 same job openings on different dates

I applied for an entry level position a month ago. A day or two later, the status changed to "Under Consideration". A week passed and I noticed that they listed the same job twice. I decided to apply to it as well. The status never changed for this position.



Fast forward today and I received a rejection letter for the first job I applied to that once said under consideration. It was filled. However, I now noticed the job I applied to later has the "under consideration" status. So they never even called for a phone screen for the 1st job, should I expect the same for this one as well?





Applied to 2 same job openings on different dates

EOM1 2005 vs 2006 Budget

Hi All,



The budget summary sheets summarize the 2006 budget for future costs in a pivot table and then compares it to the 2005 budget for projected 2006+ costs.



I don't see why the 2005 budget is relevant. Can anyone explain to me why it's included?



TIA





EOM1 2005 vs 2006 Budget

Practice Exam schedule

Hello,



I bought the Actex manual last month and have been working through the first few chapters. My goal is to have the first 4 wrapped up by the end of the semester (May 5th). I would like to take P in July, which would give me 10 weeks or thereabouts to the exam from the end of the semester. When should I try to wrap up studying the manual and work on practice exams? How many weeks should be spent solely on practice exams? Keep in mind this is my "summer project", and I plan to spend 30-35 hours a week studying.



Thanks.





Practice Exam schedule

FM Study Schedule

Does anyone have a FM study schedule from the Infinity Actuary? Or maybe your own? I'm trying to make my own schedule but would like to get an idea of what it should really look like. Thank you!





FM Study Schedule

Final Assessment 5/1-5/4

Hello,



We are planning to take Final Assessment around 5/1-5/4. There are 3 people in our group now. Let us know if you are interested in joining in!





Final Assessment 5/1-5/4

Final Assessment weekend of 5/2/2015

I planning to start FA on Friday or Saturday morning (5/1 or 5/2). I can be flexible with timing.

I have created a google group. If you would like to join, email me at rclark5353@yahoo.com. If you happen to live near Detroit, MI, we could meet up and work on it in person.



Thanks!





Final Assessment weekend of 5/2/2015

CSP IU Spring 2013 #9

The released solution to part b does not cover all parts of the question. Aren't each of those stratagies supposed to be evlauated wrt each risk? I dom't see any cons at all. part iii is supposed to RECOMMEND a strategy. where is that recommendation?

And this is a released solution.

:shake2:





CSP IU Spring 2013 #9

Every baseball player tonight is wearing the number 42...

http://ift.tt/1yxGvUh




Quote:








On Wednesday, every player will once again wear Robinson's iconic No. 42 as a way to honor the man who changed the course of baseball with grace and humility despite adversity.





Watching St. Louis vs. Milwaukee right now...so many 42s.





Every baseball player tonight is wearing the number 42...

2000 Q14 Duration Convexity question

mercredi 15 avril 2015

the question give annual yield is 8% without stating whether it's semi-annual/annual/continous compounded,

solution use it as being semi-annual compounded without starting any assumption, since the bond price, the convexity formula used will be quite different is assume yield with different compound frequency, am I missing anything? or as long as i state the assumption then solve the question accordingly will be fine ?





2000 Q14 Duration Convexity question

How many decimal places are you rounding?

i noticed that rounding to 2 places vs 3 places can result in quite different answers...i heard that the grader will actually calculate everything based on what's written down in the answer sheet. but however, if i have a number in my calculator, say 1.689848879. i rounded to 1.69. but i still use the unrounded number (1.689848879) for the rest of the calculation. the answer would be different from using 1.69. Wonder how you guys normally do in such situation? do you punch in 1.69 in the calculator for the following calculation?





How many decimal places are you rounding?

2012 #11 Cummins CAPM

I just took 2012, and I do not understand this question. At. All.



I tried dictating the question, but it confused me more. Basically you calculate an asset weighted beta (surplus and reserves) and a liability weighted beta (reserves) and add them up and divide by surplus.



Why do you effectively double count liabilities with both betas, and why aren't liabilities negative?



I'm not going to try to explain the combined ratio, because thinking of that question in the framework of an underwriting profit provision (as opposed to investment income) isn't something I'm following.



I'd hate for this question to pop again again on 2015, and need help understanding it.





2012 #11 Cummins CAPM

why did I get fired?

Hey guys,



Not long ago, I posted under an alt, wondering about my qualifications. I just recently got fired, and I am concerned this might have been the cause. Does any of you have any thoughts as to how I might be able to avoid this in the future?





why did I get fired?

Free range chickens

Do they taste better?





Free range chickens

Fall 2014 Exam ST Problem 3

Could someone show how the Z value was calculated. I know it's a Poisson Process problem with a non-homogeneous Poisson embedded at the distributions needed for the E(X) and E(X^2) needed for the mean an variance in the compound poisson process then needed for normal approximation. I am just not getting what they are getting.





Fall 2014 Exam ST Problem 3

Does anyone ever improve after a performance improvement plan?

We all know that being put under a "performance improvement plan" is a euphemism for "you better leave because you're gonna get fired soon."



Have you ever seen anyone successfully remain at the company after that point? As in, "oh hey we aren't actually going to fire you, just kidding lolz."



:popcorn:





Does anyone ever improve after a performance improvement plan?

For sale: ASM Exam C/4 study manual 16th ed. 3rd printing

Passed Exam C this Feb on first attempt.

Used ASM Exam C study manual 16th ed. 3rd printing exclusively.

Manual in good condition, asking $100, price is negotiable, accept paypal.





For sale: ASM Exam C/4 study manual 16th ed. 3rd printing

MATE Sample question #19

So I was working on MATE practice problem #19 and it is a question about Medicare coordination of benefits (COB). You have to use the given information to determine what the Medicare covered expense is using the exclusion method. The exclusion method is (C-M)% where C=covered expenses, M=Medicare payment and %=application of employer's provisions. Now the employer's provisions are a $500 deductible with 20% coinsurance after. Given is that the payment using the exclusion method was $400.



So we have (C-M)% = 400. Now C is given as 4500 so we have (4500-M)%=400. The MATE solution, however, solves by setting up the solution as: [(4500-M) - 500]*(1-.2)=400 solving for M gets M=3500. That makes sense and works, but that is assuming that the deductible was met, i.e. C-M>500. But what if C-M<500. Why can't M=4100 which would still get you a cost of $400 using the exclusion method? It seems to me like this question should have two different answers. Am I missing something?





MATE Sample question #19

Treasury function (LP-113-09)

This reading and this particular topic seems to give students a lot of trouble. Sometimes in our studies, we view actuarial functions in a vacuum and don’t necessarily see the other moving parts that make it all work in the real world. The treasury function is an example of this and is why understanding the ‘what’ and ‘how’ of the Treasury function feels a bit awkward and non-intuitive.



For the exam…



The primary purpose of the treasury function is to distinguish between earnings generated by underwriting activities and earnings generated by investment activities. This makes sense but to see how it works, let’s break the example given in the study note into manageable pieces using normal vocabulary that we understand, introduce the terminology from the reading, and finally tie it all together.



Underwriting Function

The underwriting function specializes in insurance risk so that if an insurance product is underwritten correctly and experience turns out to be as expected, the underwriting function has done a good job. If experience is better than expected, the underwriting function as done a really good job and there are additional earnings to the company than what was originally priced and expected. Lastly, if experience is worse than anticipated, there will be additional losses than expected.



Another way to look at this is to assume that underwriting function has its own balance sheet. On the liability side, the actual insurance liabilities are owed to the customers. On the asset side, we have an ‘asset’ that exactly matches the expected value of the liabilities (remember – we already said that if experience is expected, then there is no additional gain/loss). Let’s call this value the “Replicating Portfolio.” As experience materializes, the liability payout to the customer will either be equal/more/less than this value and generate a scratch/gain/loss based solely on underwriting as we described in the previous paragraph.



Investment Function

The investment function is responsible for the company’s assets. They are given a required yield and then go to the market and invest in assets to reach this yield or better (very simplified). Let’s say that they are given a 1 year asset value target of $X needed to back customer liabilities. If in 1 year, the asset portfolio exactly equals $X, they've done their job and there’s no additional earnings. Following the same logic as the Underwriting function, the actual asset portfolio can be greater than or less than $X in 1 year which then generates additional gains or losses. Remember, the Investment function of an insurance company is trying to make investment gains based on strategic investments.



Again – another way to look at this is to assume that the investment function has its own balance sheet. On the asset side, it owns the actual assets that were purchased in the market. On the liability side, it OWES the company some target level of assets ($X in the above example). If actual asset performance is better, additional gains are generated; if actual asset performance is worse then there is a loss (to the investment function) as it doesn’t have enough to pay back the target level of assets $X. Let’s call this target level of assets $X the “Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) benchmark portfolio”



Treasury Function

Let’s begin our look at the treasury function by first pointing out a very important observation. If the Replicating Portfolio = SAA benchmark portfolio, then the treasury function acts as a strict middleman. They would receive the Replicating Portfolio value from Underwriting and simply pass it on to Investment as the SAA benchmark portfolio. Asset performance vs the SAA benchmark portfolio will determine investment gains/losses; Liability experience vs. Replicating portfolio will determine underwriting gains/losses.



From this simplified situation, we can start to build the balance sheet for the treasury function. Its assets are represented by the SAA that the investment function owes them; the liabilities are the replicating portfolio that it then owes to underwriting. In practice, the treasury function determines the level of risk that a company should take for strategic reasons as reflected by the SAA benchmark. Thus – the SAA benchmark (asset) > Replicating portfolio (liability) and guess what the balancing item is: shareholder equity.



So in the end, we see the company level economic balance sheet: Assets = Liabilities + Shareholder equity where each component is held on the balance sheet of a specific function:

  • Assets: Investment function

  • Liabilities: Underwriting function

  • Shareholder Equity: Treasury function




Obviously this is just a crash course in the role of the treasury function and any seminar or study manual will likely go into more detail. But with the exam around the corner – you should aim to learn ‘enough’ about the topics that have given you trouble so that you are in a position to write something on the exam rather than leaving a question blank. Hope this helps!!





Treasury function (LP-113-09)
 

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