wirelessly display laptop on my vizio tv

samedi 28 février 2015

I figured out how to do this once & can't remember how to do it & google is failing me.



I have a Vizio TV (either a E480i-B2 or E550i-B2), a laptop, & a wireless router.



I was able to connect my laptop to the TV so that what was showing up on the laptop was showing on the TV.



I had to get some code from one of them & type it into the other. I don't think there was an app on the TV that I used, but I suppose there could've been.



Anyway, I'm flummoxed, so I come to you for help, since, collectively, the AO knows everything.





wirelessly display laptop on my vizio tv

Calculator and Option Spreads

Two general questions.



I’m going to get my calculator within the next few days. Which ones are recommended?



What functions am I looking for that some of the expensive ones will have and the cheaper ones won’t?



In FM having a financial calculator was very helpful to solve for YTM in some tricky cases. For this exam the only features I think that would be useful to have are the sample SD functions. Am I missing anything?



I’m not concerned with price. I’m just going to return my calculator the day after the exam.



Next:



Some of the sample questions I’ve encountered have required that I be fluent in the language of option spreads (bear, bull, straddle, etc.). This has made me nervous as I thought I previously read that the SOA will make it very clear what the strategy consists of (i.e. instead of saying straddle they will say buy a call and a put with same underlying, same strike, and same expiry). DO I need to memorize this added information? Or should I be good without it.



Thanks!





Calculator and Option Spreads

Learning Objectives

So I am reading through the syllabus and in LO1 the first learning outcome is:



a) Calculate provider payments under standard and leading edge reimbursement methods



After reading the source material and memorizing notecards I feel unprepared to answer a question about this. This goes for other learning outcomes as well. Anyone else feel this way?





Learning Objectives

Miami Gardens police chief gets caught in sting

These are the people who we are supposed to trust searching us without cause?



Should have kept his nose clean.



http://ift.tt/1AHStZR



Miami Gardens Police Chief*Stephen Johnson*was arrested—and immediately fired—on Friday for soliciting a prostitute in Dania Beach,*NBC Miami reports.*He had called the number on an ad placed by authorities.



The ad was placed on backpage.com,*according to a Broward Sheriff's Office arrest report. Johnson called the listed number, arranging to pay $100 for a half-hour with two prostitutes.



Johnson arrived at the designated hotel room, where he was met by two undercover detectives,*NBC Miami reports.*He handed over the money and was arrested.



"We remain committed to excellence and integrity on every level,"*the department said in a press release. "We will not allow Mr. Johnson's bad judgment to reflect negatively on the hardworking officers of the City of Miami Gardens and the residents they serve on a daily basis."



Miami Gardens became notorious last year for*its insane stop-and-frisk practices. Earlier this month, officers*shot and killed Lavall Hall, a 25-year-old man suffering from mental illness.



Meet Miami Gardens, The Stop-And-Frisk Capital of America



New York's arrest-free search policies are well known. Less well known is the Florida city…





Miami Gardens police chief gets caught in sting

Infinite Crossing Pproperty

A Brownian Motion will cross its starting point an infinite number of times in any finite length of time





Can someone please explain what this means to me? Because it clearly does not mean what I think it means.





Infinite Crossing Pproperty

Spring 2014 Questions

Going through the exam and find the solution to #2 to be incorrect. The EV calc should've already included the recapture premium that is being calculated. There is no consideration for the premium on policies in duration 1-10





Spring 2014 Questions

Statements of actuarial opinion - Question

Hi,



Am I the only one confused with the different statements of actuarial opinion? Different sources seem to have different definitions...



Mate Card #138 (Source Read. Think. Write. The statement of Actuarial Opinion for the Health Annual Statement)

If reserves are too high or too low, issue a qualified opinion.



Mate Card #140 (Source ASOP #28)

Unqualified Opinion - Assets, Liabilities, Reserves are sufficient and reasonable

Adverse Opinion - liabilities, aggregate amount not sufficient to provide unqualified Opinion

Qualified Opinion - Certain liabilities and assets cant reasonably be estimated so actuary unable to render opinion

Inconclusive Opinion - Deficiencies and limitions in the data, assumptions, render actuary unable to provide statement on liabilities, assets, reserves, etc...



Mate Card #192 (Source ASOP #26)

Where a qualified certification is given, any actions that are being taken to bring the carrier into compliance



I've even read in another source (Practice Note on the Revised Actuarial Statement of Opinion Instructions fore the NAIC Health Annual statement effective December 2009) that a qualified opinion says the the reserves, assets and liabilities are good and sufficient provisions.





Don't know if somebody can help me with this... Thanks !





Statements of actuarial opinion - Question

70% of Americans polled Either Hate their Job or are "disengaged" from their work

http://ift.tt/1wAZoPo




Quote:








A full 20% of respondents are what Gallup classifies as "actively disengaged," the ones who are muttering complaints at the water cooler and using their lunch breaks to scour job postings online.



The remaining 50% of U.S. workers are "disengaged," according to the report, meaning that while they show up for work, they are not "inspired by their managers."



Sounds about right




Spoiler:


Even perks like ping pong tables and free lunch can't mask the ugly truth - that most Americans hate their jobs and are merely trying to survive each day at the office.



An alarming 70% of those surveyed in a recent Gallup poll either hate their jobs or are completely disengaged, and not even incentives and extras can extricate them from the working man's blues.



The other findings of Gallup's 2013 State of the American Workplace report were grim; at best, 30% of the 150,000 full and part-time workers surveyed honestly enjoyed their jobs and their bosses.



But that's where the good news stopped.



A full 20% of respondents are what Gallup classifies as "actively disengaged," the ones who are muttering complaints at the water cooler and using their lunch breaks to scour job postings online.



The remaining 50% of U.S. workers are "disengaged," according to the report, meaning that while they show up for work, they are not "inspired by their managers."



Not even alluring workplace perks like nap rooms, free lunches, and massages take the place of engagement. Gallup said that 44% of workers with available flex time had higher well-being than those simply with a lot of perks.



And perhaps most startling is that Gallup found that those allowed to work remotely were more engaged - a finding that goes contrary to Yahoo! CEO Marissa Meyer's recent ordinance to stop all telecommuting of employers.



Jim Clifton, Gallup's chairman and CEO, said in a statement that poor management was one of the leading causes for employee disengagement.



Many surveyed complained of "bosses from hell" who ignored talent and didn't cultivate growth.



But the implications of the report go much deeper. The report state that the dissatisfaction, anger, and boredom felt by workers hurts the economy, which has been feeble since the Great Recession of 2008.



It also costs the U.S. an estimated $450 billion to $550 billion per annum of lost productivity, stolen goods, and missed days of work.



According to Gallup, 28% of American workers were engaged in their organizations, two points lower than the 30% engaged in 2012.



Gallup measured engagement by asking questions like, "I know what is expected of me at work," "I have the materials and equipment I need to do my work right," and "In the last six months, someone at work has talked to me about my progress."








70% of Americans polled Either Hate their Job or are "disengaged" from their work

Direct Adjustments to Premium

Mahler has a section on how avg premiums in the trend series used to estimate the trend factor have to be adjusted for one time effect changes to premiums, so that they are on the same level. Should all of these adjustments also be applied to the historical EP used in determining the indicated rate change? I would think the answer is yes.





Here's my knowledge on adjusting premiums in the rate indication. It's good knowledge, right? lol.



1) You apply adjustments to historical EP and premium in the trend series used for estimating premium trend. These adjustments account for one time effects on the premium level and may include rate changes, law amendments, and discounts.



2) You apply a premium trend to historical EP to account for changes to premium levels that occur over time, like shifts in the mix of business, inflation, and the use of a rating plan that changes the average premium level over time.





Direct Adjustments to Premium

Which actuarial exam would you take again if dared?

Suppose you are held captive by ISIS terrorists and they say you will be the next victim, unless...



Option 1: Some insanely high ransom your national Govt will never pay



Option 2: All countries agree to release every single Al Qaeda hostage without delay



Option 3: A special promotional offer: since you are an actuary, you may choose ANY actuarial exam...you will have 120 study hours.

If you pass it, you will win your freedom

You fail it...pain and suffering worse than you can imagine



I would have to go with FM. But you can also pick an EOM exercise and your hostage takers would negotiate for your paper to get graded priority status. An MMR will set you free.





Which actuarial exam would you take again if dared?

Watched the Movie "Gone Girl" last night

DJZ wet dream, amirite?





Watched the Movie "Gone Girl" last night

RIP Anthony Mason

Dead at 48 years old, after suffering a heart attack earlier this month.



http://ift.tt/1BqnQc3



He along with John Starks and Patrick Ewing made the Knicks my favorite NBA team in the early to mid 1990s.





RIP Anthony Mason

Exam MFE ASM Study Manual For Sale

9th edition, 6th printing in great shape with no marks or highlighting. $80 via PayPal including binder and shipping. PM me if interested.





Exam MFE ASM Study Manual For Sale

Exam FM ASM Study Manual For Sale

11th edition in great condition with no marks or highlighting. $100 via PayPal with binder and shipping included. PM me if interested.





Exam FM ASM Study Manual For Sale

Exam C ASM Study Manual For Sale

It's the 2nd printing of the 16th edition. In great shape with no markings or highlighting. Asking $140 via PayPal including shipping. PM me if interested.





Exam C ASM Study Manual For Sale

Limited expectation of lognormal and pareto

Hello,



I am working on a project of calculating ILF for P&C business by curve-fitting. I was wondering where I can find the the limited expectation formulea for those two distributions. Or are there any functions in Excel that can generate those limited expectation if we input the parameters for those two distribution function.





Thanks.





Limited expectation of lognormal and pareto

The Wankbank

vendredi 27 février 2015

NSFW



Masturbating is now good for the environment and can charge your phone.



http://ift.tt/1y9jjrf





The Wankbank

Sample Standard Deviation on TI-30XS

Hello!



Does anyone have a good reference on how to calculate a sample standard deviation on the TI-30XS?



Thanks!





Sample Standard Deviation on TI-30XS

It's almost the end of 2/27, WTF

...There aren't any presents being delivered!? It my f'n bday! Heh-low!





It's almost the end of 2/27, WTF

IRM Chapter 6 proposition 6.3.3 (p219-220)

I basically totally don't understand what it is talking about the number of terms in the drift summation under Q^10 measure before and after using the spot-LIBOR-measure.



How is the number counted? E.g., what are the seven drift terms for F_3 and why it's zero for F_10?

And why the case changed when the spot-LIBOR-measure is used?

And what does this mean? "some rates will be more biased than others" and "the possible bias coming from the discretized drift". Where is the bias from?



Can anyone help? Thanks a lot!





IRM Chapter 6 proposition 6.3.3 (p219-220)

What kind of Predictive Models do you build? Ground-up or Residual?

I am interested in finding out what the standard way of building predictive models is in the commercial line P&C industry (in North America).



I've been debating with colleagues about whether a ground-up model will outperform a residual model, or vice versa. By ground-up model I mean the model is applied to exposures directly, and a residual model is a model that's built and applied on top of the ISO/NCCI Manual Premium, so the model result is "deviations off of manual".



There are pros and cons to each method, so I am really curious to see what the norm is. Maybe I'll open up a poll when I figure out how that works. Appreciate your feedback! :rimshot:





What kind of Predictive Models do you build? Ground-up or Residual?

House of Cards S3 "Live" blog - SPOILERS!

Pissing on his father's grave, awesome and hilarious.





House of Cards S3 "Live" blog - SPOILERS!

Coherent Risk Measures

Hey all - These things have appeared on several exams, and I never gave them much thought. Now that I'm looking a little closer, I don't understand how monotonicity and positive homogeneity can both be true.



Definitions:



Monotonicity: If W1 <= W2, then p(W1) >= p(W2)

Homogeneity: For a>0, p(a*W) = a*p(W)



I'm thinking that if W2 is always greater than or equal to W1, then there is some constant (let's call it 'a'), greater than or equal to 1, such that a*W1 = W2.



If W2 = a*W1, it follows that p(W2) = p(a*W1)



And p(a*W1) = a*p(W1), by homogeneity



But a*p(W1) >= p(W1), because a >=1



So p(W2) = a*p(W1) >= p(W1), which contradicts monotonicity.



I must be missing something, but this is bothering me. Any thoughts?





Coherent Risk Measures

Selling Module Books - HALF PRICE

Hi,



I'm selling all the books needed for the ASA FAP modules. These include:

1. Klugman, S., 2012. Understanding Actuarial Practice. Society of Actuaries.

2. Bellis, C., Klugman, S., Shepherd, J., and Lyon, R., 2010 (Second Edition).

Understanding Actuarial Management: The Actuarial Control Cycle. Institute of

Actuaries of Australia.

3. Brown, R. L. and Gottlieb, L. R., 2007. Introduction to Ratemaking and Loss

Reserving for Property and Casualty Insurance (Third Edition), ACTEX

Publications, Inc.

4. Segal, S., 2011.Corporate Value of Enterprise Risk Management: The Next Step in Business Management, Wiley.



If you were to buy them from Actex, they'd cost $89 + $78 + $189 + $132 = $488 + tax and shipping = $500!!



I'll send you everything anywhere in the US for half that - $250 all in.

They are all still in pristine condition - Just PM me and we can set it up!

(If you're outside of the US, just mention that in your PM and I'll check into what shipping would be and get back to you with a price.)





Selling Module Books - HALF PRICE

Exam MFE Study Manual

Hi colleagues,



I plan taking EXAM MFE coming July and I want your advice on which study manual to use - I'm contemplating choosing between The Infinity Actuary Study bundle and The Coaching Actuary Study bundle. Thanks.





Exam MFE Study Manual

ASM 13 ed, Section 67.2 Profit Tests, page 1290

For the first and the last bullet points on the page I think you should replace Face Amount, FA with Net Amount at Risk, NAR because if you don't EDB for Type A policy would be the mortality rate times (FA + AV + S. Exp) which is not correct.



For Type B policy NAR = FA but for Type A policy NAR = FA - AV.



Thank you





ASM 13 ed, Section 67.2 Profit Tests, page 1290

RIP Robert Benmosche

Not quite the earth-shattering news as Spock, but still a big figure in the financial world.



http://ift.tt/1LS4YnJ





RIP Robert Benmosche

dumbest Insurance contract ever

http://ift.tt/1LS4Yny





Courts will probably rule against him eventually





dumbest Insurance contract ever

A FM question - futures, from SOA sample exams

An investor enters a long position in a futures contract on an index (F) with a notional value of 200 × F, expiring in one year. The index pays an annual continuously compounded dividend yield of 4%, and the annual continuously compounded risk-free interest rate is 2%.



At the time of purchase, the index price is 1100. Three months later, the investor has sustained a loss of 100. Assume the margin account earns an interest rate of 0%. Let S be the price of the index at the end of month three.



Calculate S.



The answer says, you get S by solving this equation,:



200*[S*exp(0.75*(0.02-0.04)-1100*exp(1*(0.02-0.04)))=-100



Question: the futures contract expires in 3 months. Why does the answers seem to use 1 year as comparison date? Can anyone shed more light on this problem?



Thanks!





A FM question - futures, from SOA sample exams

West Virginia considering striking down local anti-discriminatory laws

Interesting new approach by state governments to legalize discrimination, by outlawing non-discrimination as I understand it:



http://ift.tt/1BnLXYY




Quote:








The West Virginia House of Delegates is considering a bill that would eliminate several LGBT anti-discrimination measures passed in the state.



The legislation would prohibit local governments from enacting anti-discrimination protections that are different from those in place at the state level. West Virginia's current anti-discrimination protections do not extend to lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender individuals. The law would also nullify anti-discrimination protections for LGBT individuals that are currently in place in six communities, including Charleston, the state's biggest city.



According to the bill's text, the prohibition is an attempt to benefit businesses in the state by ensuring that employers are subject to uniform anti-discrimination protections.



But Andrew Schneider, executive director of the advocacy group Fairness West Virginia, said the bill is "anything but a pro-business bill."



"It would strip the right of communities from making their towns and cities more inclusive. And these days the vast majority of Fortune 500 companies are establishing policies that they don't discriminate against anyone including LGBT employees," he told The Huffington Post. "No one wants to move their company to a close-minded hostile environment.



"If West Virginia starts to create this perception that we promote discrimination, then we're not going to be open for business. We are shutting the door on business by doing that."



Del. Lynne Arvon (R), who introduced the bill Monday, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.



The legislation was presented in the same week that a similar bill banning protections for LGBT individuals became law in Arkansas.



Beyond being bad for business and promoting discrimination, Schneider added, the West Virginia bill would usurp the ability of local governments to pass their own laws and develop solutions for their specific communities.



"Cities and towns are entitled to do what is right for them," he said. "This seems to fly in the face of the principles of the democratic process."



The bill also comes just a few weeks after the tiny, five-person town of Thurmond, West Virginia, voted to protect LGBT individuals from discrimination.



After Thurmond passed its anti-discrimination measure, Schneider told The Huffington Post that it was clear there was a "movement afoot" to establish similar protections in the state.



Asked if the statewide bill was a response to recent momentum for LGBT protections, Schneider said Wednesday, "I think that there's part of that, you know, people out there who would like to hold on to the status quo of discrimination ... They don't want to see the world evolve to one of inclusiveness and acceptance."








West Virginia considering striking down local anti-discriminatory laws

Leonard Nimoy RIP

Yes, I know there are other threads on this, but he deserves one in S&T too.



:cry:



RIP





Leonard Nimoy RIP

RIP Leonard Nimoy

He lived long and prospered...

http://ift.tt/1C4PE75





RIP Leonard Nimoy

"Never Again Will I Complain About A Harsh Critic of My Writing"

http://ift.tt/1wuivQQ




Quote:








Attackers in the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka have hacked to death a US-Bangladeshi blogger whose writings on religion angered Islamist hardliners.



Avijit Roy, an atheist who advocated secularism, was attacked as he walked back from a book fair with his wife, who was also hurt in the attack.



No-one has been arrested but police say they are investigating a local Islamist group that praised the killing.



Hundreds of people gathered in Dhaka to mourn the blogger's death.



Mr Roy's family say he received threats after publishing articles promoting secular views, science and social issues on his Bengali-language blog, Mukto-mona (Free Mind).



He defended atheism in a recent Facebook post, calling it a "rational concept to oppose any unscientific and irrational belief".



His Mukto-mona website on Friday bore the message in Bengali "we are grieving but we shall overcome" against a black background.



'Den of militants'

A group of men ambushed the couple, who live in the US and were visiting Dhaka only to attend the book festival, as they walked toward a roadside tea stall.



At least two of the attackers hit the couple with meat cleavers in the attack on Thursday evening, police chief Sirajul Islam told AP news agency.



Dropping their weapons, the attackers ran away, disappearing into the crowds.



Police told the BBC they were investigating a local hard-line religious group that had praised the killing in an online message.



Ajay Roy, father of the dead man, urged the authorities to find the killers and "ensure exemplary punishment".



"This Bangladesh which was built by the blood-sacrifice of the martyrs has now turned into a den of militants," he said.



Students, teachers and bloggers gathered at Dhaka University on Friday to protest against the killing.








"Never Again Will I Complain About A Harsh Critic of My Writing"

Mahler Problems Spreadsheet

I attached a spreadsheet I used in the past to keep track of the problems I have done through the Mahler (2014 edition). I also spent some time going through and marking the problems Mahler had mentioned in another post last sitting are of more "importance" than others. Figured it may help somebody.



Just press delete on a cell once you complete that problem and all counts will update.








Mahler Problems Spreadsheet

Psychology jounal bans p-values

Interesting article. What are your thoughts, actuarials?



http://ift.tt/1LS4WMn


Spoiler:




A controversial statistical test has finally met its end, at least in one journal. Earlier this month, the editors of Basic and Applied Social Psychology (BASP) announced that the journal would no longer publish papers containing P values because the statistics were too often used to support lower-quality research.



Authors are still free to submit papers to BASP with P values and other statistical measures that form part of ‘null hypothesis significance testing’ (NHST), but the numbers will be removed before publication. Nerisa Dozo, a PhD student in psychology at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia, tweeted:







Jan de Ruiter, a cognitive scientist at Bielefeld University in Germany, tweeted: “NHST is really problematic”, but added that banning all inferential statistics is “throwing away the baby with the p-value”.



P values are widely used in science to test null hypotheses. For example, in a medical study looking at smoking and cancer, the null hypothesis could be that there is no link between the two. The closer to zero the P value gets, the greater the chance the null hypothesis is false; many researchers accept findings as ‘significant’ if the P value comes in at less than 0.05. But P values are slippery, and sometimes, significant P values vanish when experiments and statistical analyses are repeated (see Nature 506, 150–152; 2014).





Based on data from Altmetric.com. Altmetric is supported by Macmillan Science and Education, which owns Nature Publishing Group.

In an editorial explaining the new policy, editor David Trafimow and associate editor Michael Marks, who are psychologists at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, say that P values have become a crutch for scientists dealing with weak data. “We believe that the p < .05 bar is too easy to pass and sometimes serves as an excuse for lower quality research,” they write.



Speaking to Nature, Trafimow says that he would be happy if null hypothesis testing disappeared from all published research: “If scientists are depending on a process that’s blatantly invalid, we should get rid of it.” He admits, however, that he does not know which statistical approach should take its place.



Some puzzled over how scientists are supposed to judge whether work has validity without some statistical rules, and the suggestion that scientists could do away entirely with P values met with some derision online. Sanjay Srivastava, a psychologist at the University of Oregon in Eugene, wryly tweeted that conclusions should be the next thing to be banned. But Srivastava also sees a serious side to the new policy. In another tweet, he said:







Srivastava told Nature that he was pleased to see that several psychology journals — including Psychological Science and the Journal of Research in Personality — recently adopted different standards for data analysis, and that he is keeping an open mind about BASP’s change of course. “A pessimistic prediction is that it will become a dumping ground for results that people couldn’t publish elsewhere,” he says. “An optimistic prediction is that it might become an outlet for good, descriptive research that was undervalued under the traditional criteria.”



De Ruiter says that he doesn’t harbour much love for P values, mostly because they don’t accurately reflect the quality of evidence and can lead to false positives. But he is still “baffled” by the move to get rid of them completely. “I predict this will go wrong,” he says. “You can’t do science without some sort of inferential statistics.”



Trafimow responds that experiments and hypothesis testing had been around for centuries before P values were invented. “I’d rather not have any inferential statistics at all than have some that we know aren’t valid,” he says.







Find the BASP editorial described in this article here.





Psychology jounal bans p-values

Morgan Stanley Hunger Games (may be old news)






Morgan Stanley Hunger Games (may be old news)

Battle of the Bands - XI

Battle of the Bands X

BotB - BotB II - BotB III - BotB IV - BotB V - BotB VI - BotB VII - BotB VIII - BotB IX - BotB X



BotB XI will be comprised of 6 rounds, each running for two weeks. Participants will submit one song per round. Because rounds are limited, there will be no restriction on the number of people who can play. The tentative round schedule is as follows:



03.09.15 - Round 1

03.23.15 - Round 2

04.06.15 - Round 3

04.20.15 - Round 4

05.04.15 - Round 5

05.18.15 - Round 6



Submissions will be due by 7PM Eastern on the Friday before the new round starts. I will allow leeway as circumstances arise. I just ask that songs are submitted in a timely manner and I don't have to wait up on them to launch a new round.



Song requirements:

- The artist can not have had any album chart in the top 100 of the Billboard 200

- The song can not have been on any album (compilations, soundtracks, etc) that charted in the top 100 of the Billboard 200

- Songs an artist are only "featured" on do not disqualify that artist

- Songs must have been released after March 24, 1956

- Covers/remixes are NOT allowed



List of previously submitted bands - COMING SOON!



Submitting Songs:

- I prefer that you send me the mp3 via e-mail. Send your mp3 to botbxi@yahoo.com (The only email I can access on my work PC where I will likely do most of the work here)

- If you do not have a copy of the song, can't find a copy of the song, and really really really want to use that song, talk to me and I'll see what I can do.



Scoring:

- One vote per person (non-participants are encouraged to vote as well). No alt voting please.

- Each voter will have as many points to pass around as songs in the round.

- You may give any one song up to 4 points, no partial points.

- The maximum number of songs you can vote for in a round is 2X/3, where X is the number songs submitted that round, rounded up.

- You may not vote for your own submission.

- Votes will be due by 7PM Eastern time on the Friday before the next round starts (12 days after the round begins).

- At the end of each round, participants will receive a score of [points divided by votes]. These scores will be additive across the six rounds.

- The participant with the highest score at the end of six rounds wins.



If any questions or clarifications need to be address, let me know.



Good luck!



P.S. - thanks viv!





Battle of the Bands - XI

RIP Earl Lloyd

Basketball Hall-of-Famer Earl Lloyd passed away yesterday at the age of 86.



A shutdown defensive forward, Lloyd was the first African-American to ever play in the NBA (in 1950 with the Washington Capitols), the first African-American to ever suit up for a league champion in the NBA (in 1955 with the Syracuse Nationals) and the first African-American to serve as a head coach and as a head coach only (Bill Russell had been a player-coach) in the NBA (in 1971 with the Detroit Pistons).



He contributed greatly to the game and he will be missed.





RIP Earl Lloyd

Question about titles

I have a silly question.



So at my last company there was a level below actuarial analyst, and sometime while I was there I got promoted to it, and when I transferred to my current company I retained the title but got a pay bump that would be close to what a newly minted ACAS/FCAS would have made at my last company. So I feel like I'm being paid well but I have an underwhelming title, and will probably stay there until I get to Associate Actuary since I'm just one exam away. I'm not sure if there is a title in between Associate Actuary and Actuarial Analyst. I had another offer at another company for a "Senior Actuarial Analyst" position but I turned it down.



My question is will it hurt my career if I start sending out my resume and employers find out that I have 4 years of experience and I'm still just an Actuarial Analyst? Does the underwhelming title hinder me? Or will they take my current skill level and pay and match whatever it is at the new company? I would like to be a Director or VP in the near future with a handful of reports. Or would it look better if I had a fancier title like Senior Actuary? I personally think titles don't matter much, I view everyone who doesn't manage people at pretty much the same level of authority, but other people may differ.



Love,



Colonel Smoothie





Question about titles

How many hours of sleep do you get?

Ever since I realized that time is finite I have been trying to find ways to minimize the hours I need to sleep every night, without much success. I need 8 hours.



However, I don't drink coffee.





How many hours of sleep do you get?

Derivation of the premium for a choose option

t = time when you choose.



The payoff at time t for a chooser option is Max[C(t),P(t)].



Thus the premium for the chooser option is PresentValue(Max[C(t),P(t)]) = Max[C(0),P(0)]



The reasoning is flawed because that is not the premium in general. Max[C(0),P(0)] is only the premium if t = 0.



Why is this reasoning flawed?



PV[C(t)] = C(0)

PV[P(t)] = P(0)





Once again, it's is getting late and things are no longer making sense. It is time to sleep.





Derivation of the premium for a choose option

Prepaid forward price at time t vs time t', where t'>t

Thus the prepaid forward price of the option at time t is equal to its prepaid forward at time t'



This comes from the Mahler manual.



I don't see how that is true, even if an option pays no dividends.





Prepaid forward price at time t vs time t', where t'>t

Wait, what is the point of buying a prepaid forward again?

Suppose a stock pays no dividends, then the prepaid forward price = current stock price.



Why would I buy a prepaid forward instead of just outright buying the stock?



They both cost the same.



If I owned the stock from now until time t, the expiration date of the prepaid forward, then if the stock price were to jump significantly before the time t I could sell the stock and make a profit. If I merely owned the prepaid forward I can't do that.





Wait, what is the point of buying a prepaid forward again?

What color is this godd**n dress?!






What color is this godd**n dress?!

How much do you spend on your fitness?

PER MONTH



Including gym membership fee, any personal training cost, pre and post workout supplements, energy drinks during workout such as Gatorade, nutritional/protein bars etc.



Excluding: Medical insurance premium, the usual 3 meals of the day, travel cost to the gym.



Pretty much, apply your judgement here.



Poll coming.





How much do you spend on your fitness?

Thread to tell people that they need to lift if they're dieting

jeudi 26 février 2015

Y U NO LIFT BRO? U WANNA LOSE MUSCLES? DO YOU EVEN LIFT BRO!





Thread to tell people that they need to lift if they're dieting

Term Insurance Premium

Have a 10 yr term and a 15 yr term which one is cheaper if all else is equal?





Term Insurance Premium

Sports massages

Lifting bros: how often do you get massages?





Sports massages

FM Exam vs Infinite Actuary

Can anybody tell me how they thought Infinite Actuary practice exams compared to the FM Exam? I did all the SOA practice problems and found them to be MUCH easier than TIA's practice exams. Does anybody who has taken the exam agree? Thanks!





FM Exam vs Infinite Actuary

Keurigs are junk

I've owned 3 Keurig coffee makers and they all seem to start having problems at around 2 years. Does anyone else have this experience?





Keurigs are junk

Pubes in the Fellowship Textbook

They were very long and very curly. Almost seemed like a bookmark.





Pubes in the Fellowship Textbook

Friend

How do I get one?





Friend

Difference in PV of Geometric series in TIA and Adapt

I don't know if I'm missing something here, but in ADAPT If i have a problem where each payment increases, I use this formula









(ignore the stuff at the bottom)



So for example if each payment increases by 3%, and the yield is 5%, I have 1.03/1.05 as R.



in TIA, with a similar problem, it will have the same formula but the denominator is yield minus increase (0.05 - 0.03)



These similar, but different answers, and I'm scared that on the exam some of the choices will be really close.



Am I missing something here?





Difference in PV of Geometric series in TIA and Adapt

Placebo

when people say it's just the placebo effect they seem to imply it's a negative thing, like the thing doesn't work. isn't it the exact opposite, the fact that it has a placebo effect means it's having an effect.





i mean, if a placebo cures my headache, then it freaking cured my headache.



i can't will my headache away without taking a placebo pill.



there really should be a line of products that's just sugar pills with diffent packaging and treats all known symptoms responsible to placebo. it'll be super cheap too! the catch is nobody can know this is a placebo brand





Placebo

stud






stud

Remember all those paranoid guys that were stocking up on ammunition?

Guess they weren't so crazy after all.





Remember all those paranoid guys that were stocking up on ammunition?

Strategic and Planning Team Within Actuarial Department?

Skip to the last paragraph if you want a short version.



I went to an actuarial info session recently. When the department introduced its structure, one of the teams that caught my eyes was the strategic insights team. They are responsible for product performance analysis, planning and budgeting. According to the people I talked to, in most insurance companies their team falls under pricing. They are actuaries that take up less traditional actuarial roles - they interact more with the underwriters than with actuaries.



Since I had an internship in strategic planning/analysis in a financial services firm and will be starting my actuarial job soon, I am interested in roles that combine actuarial skills with strategic planning/analysis.



Does the actuarial department in your company have such opportunities? What are your thoughts on these roles? Are they usually available for entry-levels (0-2 years experience)? Are you going to learn less actuarial skills since the work sounds more related to business than actuarial analysis to me.



tl;dr: Thoughts on planning/strategic analysis roles within the actuarial department, either in general or for entry-levels with 0-2 years of experience?





Strategic and Planning Team Within Actuarial Department?

Real analysis

Everybody on this forums seems to make inside real analysis jokes that I don't get. I have not taken an analysis class, but I know what it is. Can somebody fill me in so I get these jokes that people make.





Real analysis

Is Ito the new 2pac or is he the new Rickson?

That is all. If you don't see a poll, it's forthcoming. If you do see a poll, it isn't forthcoming.





Is Ito the new 2pac or is he the new Rickson?

Friend With Benefits

How do I get one?





Friend With Benefits

California Bans Price Optimization

CA has joined MD and OH in banning the practice.



Link to WSJ Article: http://ift.tt/1wrJFYz



Link to CA Notice to Insurers: http://ift.tt/1wrJEUB





California Bans Price Optimization

Odomirok RBC typo?

Under the calculation for R1:



On page 239, it states under item 8. Miscellaneous assets, including cash....and nonadmitted collateral loans.



On page 244, it shows the factor as "0.050 times admitted collateral loans.



Which is it?





Odomirok RBC typo?

Trump 2016: This time, he really means it

mercredi 25 février 2015

http://ift.tt/1GwF4ET



Not holding my breath. Seems like another publicity stunt.




Quote:








This time, Donald J. Trump says, he really means it.



The billionaire real-estate mogul, who has long amounted to a one-man sideshow in GOP presidential politics, said in an interview Wednesday that he is “more serious” than ever about pursuing a run for the White House in 2016.



In recent days, Trump said, he has hired staffers in key primary states, retained an election attorney and delayed signing on for another season as host of NBC’s “The Celebrity Apprentice” because of his political projects.





“Everybody feels I’m doing this just to have fun or because it’s good for the brand,” Trump said in an interview with The Washington Post. “Well, it’s not fun. I’m not doing this for enjoyment. I’m doing this because the country is in serious trouble.”



The moves are the most significant steps yet by Trump, 68, toward a bona fide presidential bid, which he considered briefly and flamboyantly in 2011 before deciding against a run.



The looming question, however, is whether he can convince Republicans that he is more than a celebrity bomb-thrower and instead is sincere in his consideration of a campaign. Trump is slated to appear ahead of former Florida governor Jeb Bush on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, an annual gathering of conservatives near Washington.



Trump in recent years has served largely as a provocateur on the sidelines of Republican politics, flirting with “birtherism” and making other remarks casting doubt on President Obama’s credentials and love of country. GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney frequently shared the stage with Trump in often awkward appearances during the 2012 campaign, providing ample fodder for Democratic attack ads.



Trump would face steep challenges entering a field that is almost certain to include Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, among a dozen others, including many conservative hopefuls who have built their own networks. But his entry would also bring into the race a colorful contender with deep pockets and a national following — attracting media attention and forcing others to respond to his views.





Democrats reacted to Trump’s plans with eye-rolling. “You mean there’s a chance that he could blow up the entire Republican field and get ‘Celebrity Apprentice’ off my television? Sign me up!” wrote Mo Elleithee, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee, in an e-mail.



Many Republicans were also skeptical.



“It’s a free country and he can do whatever he wants with his money, but the notion of him being elected president is pretty remote,” said Thomas D. Rath, a former attorney general in New Hampshire. “Running for president shouldn’t be a reality show that you watch once a week.”



As part of his preparations, Trump met Monday in New York with Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, telling him that he was actively mulling a presidential run, according to people familiar with the conversation. Priebus, who will remain neutral in the 2016 primaries, took the meeting because of Trump’s status as a prominent donor to the RNC.



For the moment, Trump’s consultants will be employed by his personal office, but they are likely to transition over to a new political group in the coming weeks. Donald F. McGahn, a partner at Jones Day, is counseling the businessman as he takes further steps.



Corey R. Lewandowski, a former director of voter registration at Americans for Prosperity, a group backed by conservative industrialists Charles and David Koch, has been asked by Trump to serve as his senior political adviser and manager for the campaign-in-waiting. Alan Cobb, a former political adviser at Koch Industries, is another Republican who has signed on with Trump and is assisting with recruitment.



Based in New Hampshire, Lewandowski will direct Trump’s efforts in the first presidential primary and nationally if Trump jumps into the race later this year.



“The dysfunction of Washington and politics as usual drew me away from other candidates and toward someone who’s gotten something done in the business world,” Lewandowski said in an interview. To doubters, he added: “Wait and see. Mr. Trump is going to reintroduce himself to the American public. This is going to be a real contest, and no one wants to see a coronation.”



Chuck Laudner, who advised former senator Rick Santorum’s 2012 victory in the Iowa presidential caucuses, will lead Trump’s expected campaign there. Laudner’s hire was first reported Tuesday by the conservative Breitbart news Web site.



And in South Carolina, Ed McMullen, who has assisted the presidential campaigns of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), has agreed to serve as Trump’s state chairman and political adviser. Also on board is state Rep. James H. Merrill.



Advising Trump on communications is Sam Nunberg, a political operative who is an associate of Roger Stone, the famed New York-based GOP opposition researcher.



In the meantime, political insiders will be monitoring his words and movements closely to ascertain whether Trump is actually inching closer to a national run — an idea he has considered for nearly three decades, going back to the run-up to the 1988 Republican presidential primaries.



When Trump played with the idea of running in 2011, he went to New Hampshire to stoke speculation and issued similar statements about the “serious” nature of his exploration before bowing out and renegotiating his contract with NBC.



On Sunday, Trump, worth $4 billion on the Forbes billionaire list, visited Charleston, S.C., for a speech at the Citadel. While he was there, he met with Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), a rising political player in the early primary state.



Last month, Trump was in Des Moines for a conservative summit hosted by Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), where he made headlines by bashing both Romney and Jeb Bush. “The last thing we need is another Bush,” Trump said.



Laudner, who was also being courted by Santorum (Pa.) and Gov. Bobby Jindal (La.), said he signed on after driving through the state with Trump during that visit. During their conversations, Laudner said he became convinced that Trump was not leading him on.



In March, Trump will travel to Iowa once again for an agriculture summit and also to New Hampshire.



“I am more serious about this than I’ve ever been before,” Trump said in the interview. “I made the deal with Chuck and Corey and some more we’ll be announcing soon because I’m serious and I want to focus on making America great again. I don’t need to be out there raising money.”





On the television front, Trump said he is keeping his options open and holding off on confirming his role as host on another season of “The Celebrity Apprentice,” which NBC renewed earlier this month for a 15th season.



Nunberg said while Trump is open to doing the show, he has told NBC he cannot commit to hosting it.



Trump said his pitch is straightforward and meant to reach voters who are fed up with the political system, mixing conservative populism and a blunt message about leadership.



“People around the world are laughing at us,” he said. “Look at China, they’re killing us, taking our jobs. We have weakness in the Middle East and with ISIS. We have incompetent people running the country and I’m tired of it.”








Trump 2016: This time, he really means it

Actuarial GitHub

Do we have an official AO GitHub ?





Actuarial GitHub

1 day left to study...how do you think I should spend it?

Hey guys, I'm taking FM on the 27th. I'm not feeling too good about my chances, but it's possible I could pass it, I suppose. I've been using ADAPT and am current at a 6.48 but I'm only scoring around about 20ish/35 on these level exams (it's giving me exams around a 6.7ish difficulty usually) and I'm taking longer than the time limit.



Generally my study method has been to take an exam. Then afterwards, I go back and do a second attempt and try to get a couple more of the ones I couldn't get at first. Then score it and review the answers, and repeat.



On my last day tomorrow, do you think I should just do this again one more time, or something different?



Also what's up with this pilot questions thing I've heard people talk about?





1 day left to study...how do you think I should spend it?

12th Annual AO Rock Paper Scissors Tourney - March Madness 2015!

Sign up thread is here



35 entries so far; only 29 spots remain. Sign up today!





12th Annual AO Rock Paper Scissors Tourney - March Madness 2015!

"At least cocaine"

Josh Hamilton relapsed again.



http://ift.tt/1wgI5mB



Not much to say as his addiction issues are well documented. But what's up with the headline (reported by CBS) that his relapse involved "at least cocaine?"



And at most?



Meth?

Heroin?

Tranny hookers?

Child sex slaves?

Cannibalism?



Speculate here. Or don't.





"At least cocaine"

You can see light pass an object faster than the speed of light, correct?

You are traveling from earth to a star 4 light years away at 99% of light speed.



You can argue your time perception and length perception are different due to time dilation and length contraction, but regardless of what you throw in, nothing in relativity says 2 objects at rest on the same reference frame (in this case earth and the star)....are perceived as moving at different speeds from each other, no matter what inertial frame you're on...a fixed unchanging distance between 2 objects is a fixed unchanging distance between 2 objects.



So for light to pass the traveler at what appears to be the constant speed of light? And the traveler is moving from earth towards the star? Then that traveler cannot also see the light traveling from earth to the star as having passed planet earth at the speed of light. He would have to see the light beam passing earth at faster than the speed of light, or else he would see the light passing him at slower than the speed of light.





You can see light pass an object faster than the speed of light, correct?

Entry Level Work

If you are entry-level, what are you working on? For others, what do you have your entry-level employees do?





Entry Level Work

range for 1 notrump rebid on overcall

I am south.

east deals , bids 1 club.

I overcall 1 heart.

west passes.

Partner north bids 1 spade (we play new suit forcing by unpassed hand)

east passes.

Now as south I rebid 1 notrump.



How many high card points am I supposed to be showing?



(1 notrump overcall direct I play 15 to 18 hcp)





range for 1 notrump rebid on overcall

Most Revolutionary Physics Research Ever

http://ift.tt/H36Gso



Abstract:


Quote:








Many urological studies rely upon animal models such as rats and pigs whose urination physics and

correlation to humans are poorly understood. Here we elucidate the hydrodynamics of urination

across five orders of magnitude in animal mass. Using high-speed videography and flow-rate measurement

at Zoo Atlanta, we discover the “Law of Urination,” which states animals empty their

bladders over nearly constant duration of 21 ± 13 seconds. This feat is made possible by larger

animals having longer urethras, thus higher gravitational force and flow speed. Smaller mammals

are challenged during urination due to high viscous and surface tension forces that limit their urine

to single drops. Our findings reveal the urethra constitutes as a flow-enhancing device, enabling

the urinary system to be scaled up without compromising its function. This study may help in

the diagnosis of urinary problems in animals and in inspiring the design of scalable hydrodynamic

systems based on those in nature.



Methods:


Quote:








We film urination of sixteen animals (Figure 1(a)-(d)) and obtained twenty-eight urination videos

from YouTube. Figure 1(h) shows the duration of urination across 6 orders of magnitude of animal

mass from 0.03 kg to 8000 kg. Despite this large range, the duration remains nearly constant,

T = 21 ± 13 seconds (N=32) for all animals heaver than 3 kg. This constancy of emptying time

is quite a feat upon consideration of the substantial bladders of larger animals. The urination

duration for both jetting and dripping regime are modeled in the Supplement.



Enjoy :razz:





Most Revolutionary Physics Research Ever

Internship Pays $20/hr. What will EL salary range be?

I'll receive $20/hr as a summer intern this year and expect to be offered a full time position beginning at the end of the internship. Based on the $20/hr rate, what would you predict as this company's EL starting salary range (2 exams)?





Internship Pays $20/hr. What will EL salary range be?

Fall 2014 #1 c

The 2014 #1 accepted exam solutions are:


Quote:








Part c: 0.25 point

Accepted Answer 1

Decrease frequency as hours worked will be a larger number than number of employees.

Accepted Answer 2

Shifting from number of employees to hours worked would increase frequency. Part time

employees would be treated as having the same exposure as full time employees when using

number of employees so shifting to hours work would correct for this and decrease the

exposure. Frequency is calculated as claim counts divided by exposure so frequency would

increase.



How does Accepted Answer 2 get credit? I don't get it.





Fall 2014 #1 c

Coach Concept in Business

Sports have coaches. Why do we not have coaches at work?



A sports coach sees your talent, then determines best way to optimize it.



A business manager is NOT a coach because they are focused on the bottom line. The sports coach is also focused on the 'W' but his motivation is to optimize the application of your talent to get the 'W'.



Your boss is not optimizing your talent. Your boss is trying to get the worksheet updated by midnight so it can be included in some report.



Some workplaces have the 'Mentor' model. The mentor is not like a sports coach because the mentor is likely someone one level above you. The mentor does not have the foresight or understanding to guide you. The mentor is just another way to manage the employee.



But if coaching works so well in sports to get you a 'W', why do we not have coaches in business?



I guess because in business, your talent does not need to be polished to get a 'W' for the corporation.



And also because sports <> business, although many sport teams are run as a business.



Carry on





Coach Concept in Business

Great at exams, bad at my job, don't know what to do

A bit of background: I graduated from college in May of 2014, spammed out resumes for three months, worked odd jobs, and got a job with a fairly large P&C insurer, where I've been for the past seven months. This job was my first "real" job out of college - nothing before that except for a one-month long internship in an unrelated field. I came into my job with no real experience in Excel, SAS or any other technical stuff.



I'm having issues with this first job - there are a lot of little details in sending out rate reviews and getting things out on time. Most of my newer coworkers seem to have adjusted fine, but I'm struggling to adjust to an office environment. In addition, my attention to detail is mediocre at best - I consistently copy-paste things where I shouldn't, forget to fill in fields and miss deadlines where I shouldn't.



My exam studying has been going excellently - since getting the job, I've passed ST, LC and C on the first try. I've never had any problems passing exams - P and FM were also passed on the first try. I'd like to try MFE in July - however, due to my lackluster performance, my boss has told me to hold off on taking exams for the time being until my work performance improves. :crying: I don't know whether or not to take that advice - among people who have been at the office for a while, about half of them (including my boss) quit taking exams and seem to be doing just fine.



Is it a good idea to stop taking exams and focus on my work, or will my exams do more for me in the long run than my work progress at my current job? Do P&C employers tend to be less focused on having employees pass exams - and if my employer doesn't care much whether or not I focus on exams or something else, is that a bad thing? :-? If I'm great at theoretical stuff (passing exams) but not so great at technical stuff (my job), should I switch to another company/life/health/grad school/something that isn't actuarial work?





Great at exams, bad at my job, don't know what to do

Entry-level actuarial exam support

Hi,



I'm looking for some quick information. I was wondering what kind of actuarial exam support one typically receives upon receiving their first actuarial position. I've just been hired for my first actuarial job, and was wondering what kind of support I can expect. I understand with it being my first position that I would have little to no pull when it came to negotiations. In that case, would you say that for an entry-level, this is a take whatever you can get situation?



Thanks!





Entry-level actuarial exam support

Running is for P*ssies

big guy at the gym yesterday wandering around with a shirt that said running is for p*ssies.



i wonder why you don't see runners walking around with shirts that say only boneheads lift things up and put them down





Running is for P*ssies

American Horror Story: Hotel (S5)

Apparently this what the next installment will be called. And Lady Gaga is the first cast member announced.



I think we knew last season was Jessica Lange's last season, but apparently Sarah Paulson won't be available for this one either. She's really the only one that's been in all seasons except Lange, right?



I thought Freak Show was awful (and bailed halfway through), but I'll check this one out. I enjoyed the first two seasons enough and the anthology format wipes the slate clean for a fresh start.





American Horror Story: Hotel (S5)

GNT: Two Grand Slam decisions

So, my team won the District 13 Flight A GNT, and I'll be heading to the summer nationals for the second year in a row. Here are two interesting hands which involved grand slam decisions.



For our first hand, partner opens 2C, and we're looking at a monster. We're vulnerable versus non-vul opponents. RHO overcalls 3H.

AKQJ5

96

43

A1065



The auction proceeds:

2C - (3H) - 3S - (p)

4D - (p) - 5C - (p)

6C - (p) - ???



I posted this as a bidding problem on bridgewinners.com, and the discussion is interesting.





For our second hand, you hold only ten points, but five-card support for partner.

AK1085

void

K10542

976



The opponents are silent, and the auction proceeds.

1D - 1S

2H - 3D (forcing)

3H - 3S

4C - ???

What is your plan? Do you push for six? Try for seven? What line of play do you envision?





GNT: Two Grand Slam decisions

The Official WWE Discussion Thread

Fastlane is behind us and Wrestlemania 31 is around the corner.



It'll be nice to see Sting in action against HHH. The big question though - will the match against Wyatt be Taker's last? A lot of fans also want to see Sting vs Taker, but not sure either would want to lose that one.



Thoughts?





The Official WWE Discussion Thread

Self-reporting DNMMR - what really happens?

I'm just getting started on the FSA Modules and haven't gotten to an EOM Exercise yet, but when searching around it seems that if you submit and DNMMR yourself, you get a chance to rework your solution and then (presumably) resubmit it. However upon searching I also came across a few posts that said you usually get the same exercise again, but not always.



Does anyone have any experience with NOT receiving the same exercise? And can you actually resubmit a revised solution if it's the same exercise?





Self-reporting DNMMR - what really happens?

Is American Call on a forward = European call on a forward?

The forward does not pay a dividend, so the American call of that forward must equal the European Call of that forward?





Is American Call on a forward = European call on a forward?

Exam Recommendations / Career Change

I had a successful engineering career for several years and have been a stay-at-home mom for the last few years. I am hoping to re-enter the workforce as an actuary. I have passed the P and FM exams.



Which test would be best to take next, the MFE for MLC?



With 2 tests under my belt, I do plan to start the job hunt. Is 2 exams a reasonable number?



Thanks so much for the feedback.





Exam Recommendations / Career Change

Looking to buy ASM ST manual

Pls :)





Looking to buy ASM ST manual

Why did Jack want the Titanic to sink?

Time traveling Jack goes back in time and saves Rose so the Titanic sinks. Why?





Why did Jack want the Titanic to sink?

Ducktales! Woo ooh!

Probably doesn't deserve its own thread, but there's no other appopriate thread:



http://ift.tt/1BVelCW




Quote:








Here’s some news so awesome it will make you want to swan dive into a massive pile of gold coins. Disney has announced that they are rebooting the classic series DuckTales for DisneyXD. In a statement, a network executive explained, "DuckTales has a special place in Disney's TV animation history. It drew its inspiration from Disney legend Carl Barks' comic books and, through its storytelling and artistic showmanship, set an enduring standard for animated entertainment that connects with both kids and adults. Our new series will bring that same energy and adventurous spirit to a new generation." The new animated series is set to debut some time in 2017 ...








Ducktales! Woo ooh!

does getting a master from reputable university help a lot in securing the first Job?

I graduated from a Malaysian university and have been searching for an actuarial job for almost 8 months but still get nothing. Entry level actuarial jobs are very very limited here and I'm competing with so many people who graduated from Malaysia or overseas university. So the chances are very very small. Besides, the pay is not as good as in the USA. But time waits noone, I have to make a decision instead of just waiting.



Here are several possible options of mine. Would anyone please provide me with some suggestions or opinions on it?



1. Aim for enrolling in a 1-year Master degree program in Statistics in any reputable university(probably National University of Singapore or any equivalence uni in asia as I'm financialy unable to fund my tuition fees if I'm going to do it in the USA or Canada) after 2 years. This means I'm going to put down my want for an actuarial job first and get any jobs i can get even it is totally irrelevant to statistics or actuarial, then save as much as possible in this 2 years and borrow the remaining from my parent to fund the tuition fees. If the plan goes well, I wish I will be able to at least get a decent entry level actuarial job in these big cities such as Hong Kong or Singapore after graduated(will be 27 that time with zero experience) and start building up my career from there. What do you all think about getting a master degree from reputable university? Is it going to help ease my job searching process? Is it even possible for me to apply for vacancies in the USA with such qualifications? Does it worth it to spend all I have to get a master? I'm afraid that I still get nothing am not better off after that.



2. Just ditch actuarial science and choose another area?





does getting a master from reputable university help a lot in securing the first Job?

Rich people

Let me ax you guys some thing. The other day I went downtown cause they was doing one of them blood drive dohickys and was giving away Reds baseball caps if you let them bleed you out. Plus they let you eat all the cookies you want so thats like a double win or something.



So I;m walking around afterwords and go in to some of the stores they got there in the hippie and rich folks section. You would'nt believe some of the prices they charge for stuff. Like they had cutting boards for 50 dollers. I;m like, what? $50? Dude, I got plenty of maple and cherry at home. I;ll get you all the cutting boards you want for $50.



Thats not the only stuff either. They had clothes made outof old feed sacks for like a hunderd dollers too. Dude, for $100 you can get your self a whole bunch of regular clothes. They had blue jeans too for $120, just for one pair.



Then theyr'e like, here, we got chocolate covered bacon for only $30 for 6 pieces. First, For $30 I can get 5 or 6 pounds of bacon easy and some chocolate chips and make a whole bunch of chocolate covered bacon. Probly have money left over for some dr. Pepper. Second, why does any body want their bacon covered in chocolate?



Okay, so why are rich people so stupid with their money? Thats the question.





Rich people

2009 Q18 - swaps

2009 Q18 is a question about a 5 yr currency swap between a financial institution and company XYZ. Company XYZ goes bankrupt right before the 3rd yr payment.



The solution ends up giving the value of the swap, from the financial institution's perspective, as .46 million. However, if XYZ has just gone bankrupt, wouldn't the value of the swap be 0? XYZ is not around any longer to make the payments the give the swap it's value.



If XYZ had not gone bankrupt, I would agree with the solution.





2009 Q18 - swaps

Python and Predictive Analytics

Is anyone using Python for predictive analytics (i.e. glm's, neural nets, etc)? I'm working through Python for Data Analysis which does a good job of introducing a someone with programming and data analytics skills to both Python and the Pandas package. However, other than data manipulation and time series, there's not much else there.



Does anyone have any suggestions? Basically, I want to learn enough to keep the "data scientists" in my company from talking over my head. I already have R and SAS for doing traditional statistical analysis.





Python and Predictive Analytics

Deferring exam registration

I've registered for this exam but life and work getting in the way (big time).. how do I defer my registration to fall'15?





Deferring exam registration

ICC

Anyone play here? What are the pros/cons compared to chess.com?





ICC

Clinton Isn't the Democrats' Only Candidate

http://ift.tt/1BS15iy



tl;dr: Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Virginia Sen. Jim Web, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Gwen Graham...all mum for now in the face of Clinton.




Quote:








WASHINGTON -- It is a truth universally acknowledged that while the Republicans have too many candidates for 2016, the Democrats have too few. If Hillary Clinton doesn't run or her presidential campaign implodes, the thinking goes, her party has no bench, no backup, no Plan B.



The list of Democrats who have publicly suggested they might run is indeed skimpy. But it’s misleading to compare the depth of the two parties simply by counting the number of self-declared possible candidates. Every Republican who ever looked in the mirror and saw a president is hinting at a run, hoping to generate press, test the reaction and even begin to build momentum. For GOP-ers, there's no downside to being talked about as a potential candidate. But not many A-list Democrats are mounting the same kind of PR campaign.



Several Democratic strategists, pollsters and party insiders interviewed for this article were eager to refute the idea that the party has no bench, and to suggest names of pols who could be viable 2016 candidates. But they didn’t want their own names attached to this article and refused to be quoted on the record. No one wants to be seen as encouraging someone to run against Clinton.



That same fear appears to be keeping potential candidates quiet as well. Very few in Democratic circles are willing to alienate the Clintons. The couple has built a massive political operation. They command the loyalty of hundreds of donors and bundlers. An endorsement from the Clinton family can tip the scales for a candidate. And the Clintons are known to hold grudges. Bill Clinton remained angry for years that Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy backed Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in 2008.



The Democrats do have real challenges in 2016 -- and perhaps even further ahead. They lost a number of governor races in 2010 and 2014 that are typically jumping-off points for presidential candidates. The party's losses went all the way down to the local level, depleting the ranks for candidate development for years to come. That so many who could run are -- so far -- sitting this one out means that potential 2020 or 2024 candidates and staffers aren’t getting the experience they need to build strong campaigns in the future.



Still, the party's ranks aren't as thin as it seems at first look.



There are three Democrats publicly toying with a run: Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb. Only Webb, who is more moderate than Clinton, has launched an exploratory committee. O’Malley hired staff for his PAC at the end of the year, but has delayed making an actual announcement. And Sanders hasn’t made clear whether he’s actually running or just enjoying the attention that comes with suggesting he might.



All three have liabilities. Sanders is a self-described socialist, so there's essentially no chance that he could win a national election, or even the primary. Webb served only one term in the Senate and retired from office in 2012. Against a field of current Republican officeholders (or a two-term governor like Jeb Bush), he could look inexperienced. And O’Malley, who served two terms as governor and proved he could fund-raise as the head of the Democratic Governors Association, would face criticism for the problems in his state -- like the unemployment rate -- as he leaves office.



But the Democrats have a long time to find a Clinton alternative, if they need one. With all the bustle right now of Republicans getting ready to run, it may seem as though February is the deadline to start a campaign. In fact, Mitt Romney didn’t announce his 2012 exploratory committee until April of 2011. That October, donors and GOP insiders were still trying to get New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to jump in.



It's easier for a candidate with high name recognition to start late. Vice President Joe Biden, who has already run two presidential campaigns, has made clear that as long as Clinton is running, he’s out of the game. But if circumstances changed, he would be able to quickly pull together a team, and he's already known by the voters, especially in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. But Biden is vulnerable: He's prone to gaffes, 72 years old, and tied even more closely than Hillary Clinton to the polarizing Obama administration.



Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has built up significant name recognition and an energized fan base. Her drawbacks: She's far more liberal than Obama and would have to overcome what would surely be a downpour of donations from Wall Street to her opponents because of her stern views on financial regulations. Warren also has consistently said she's not interested in running.



While name recognition helps, it isn’t everything. In a modern campaign where super PACs can raise untold sums, name recognition can be purchased by flooding airways with ads. If Clinton were no longer in the mix, candidates with unique appeal could make up lost ground if they offered other important attributes. There are several Democratic governors who meet those criteria. Governors have tended to be strong presidential candidates: They aren’t tied to Washington; they have already been vetted, to some degree, in their home state; and they have executive experience, a frequent criticism of Obama.



Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear might quickly go to the top of the list. He’s a Southern Democrat -- an increasingly rare breed -- from a state that's doing relatively well. He implemented the Affordable Care Act, which has been seen as wildly successful after thousands of people gained access to Medicaid and purchased private insurance. He’s helped build a thriving tech hub in Louisville, and the state’s unemployment rate has dropped significantly during his term. The two-term governor won twice in a Republican-leaning state and can’t run for re-election again.

Montana's Democratic governor Steve Bullock is also a viable candidate. He’s only in his first term in the mostly conservative state -- and his freshman status would make a 2016 campaign more difficult; however, it could also set up speculation for vice presidential nominations or future campaigns.



Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper was barely re-elected in his perennial swing state last year. But his experience as governor could make a strong platform, even if the state’s legalization of marijuana might be a liability in the South. New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan would also offer an appealing candidacy, especially since she represents an early swing state and would have an easier time in the primary.



Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick left office in mid-January and has joined a Massachusetts Institute of Technology innovation project -- a good public and private background from which to launch a campaign. Before Obama was elected, it was a badly kept secret that Patrick had designs on being the first African-American president, but he has ruled out a run for 2016. In a wide open field, governors like New York’s Andrew Cuomo or Delaware’s Jack Markell could have a shot. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, while too new to consider a 2016 run, could be a realistic option farther down the road.



Democrats could also round up several viable candidates from the U.S. Senate. It might be harder for a senator to get elected after all the criticism of Obama’s lack of executive experience. But Virginia has two senators -- Mark Warner and Tim Kaine -- who served as governors before they were elected to the Senate. Warner has positioned himself as a moderate and a member who wants to get things done, working on several bipartisan initiatives while in the Senate.



Democrats boast several women senators in addition to Warren who would be able to assemble a presidential campaign: Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar, New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen and New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand. And for 2016 -- or more likely, in future years -- there are young Democrats who are gaining popularity, like New Jersey’s Cory Booker, New Mexico’s Martin Heinrich and Colorado’s Michael Bennett.



While Democrats are less likely than Republicans to look outside the political arena for candidates, former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in Arizona, has an impressive medical and military background.



Democrats also have California Attorney General Kamala Harris, who is making a bid for the U.S. Senate and, as the daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father, brings a unique story to a campaign. Either of Texas’ Castro twins could be considered a potential national candidate -- Rep. Joaquin Castro or Housing and Urban Development Secretary Juilian Castro.



Florida Rep. Gwen Graham succeeded as a Democrat in a swing state, as did North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper. And in what would be a difficult but not unprecedented campaign, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed could assemble a run building on his Southern roots.



Even though Clinton is in a formidable position at this point, the undisputed frontrunner who will have millions of dollars at her command, it's hard to imagine that she will run unopposed. It wouldn't be good for Clinton -- or the Democrats -- if she just coasted to the finish line. Primary campaigns are an important time for candidates to fight through the attack ads and let the electorate grow bored of hearing about their past transgressions. Contentious primary debates sharpen a politician's reflexes and help them hone their message.



In short, Hillary Clinton might not welcome challengers, but she needs them. And she will have them. For at least a handful of Democrats, the FOC -- Fear Of Clinton -- will be less powerful than the lure of the possible.








Clinton Isn't the Democrats' Only Candidate

FA 2/27-3/2

Anyone else starting the FA this Friday?





FA 2/27-3/2

power/rangers

http://ift.tt/1w6qCNu



This was pretty awesome.





power/rangers

Life Actuary networking at CAS conference

How awkward would it be if an actuary working on the SOA side attended a few of the CAS sponsored conferences in order to build her network in the hopes of changing careers and getting a p&c job?





Life Actuary networking at CAS conference

Taking it this Saturday

mardi 24 février 2015

6.5 Earned level, wanted to diverse to other practice exams so I started taking Actuarial Brew. Got over 30 on each exam. I feel prepared! But yet I just have an itch telling myself I need to keep chugging. I just want Saturday here!





Taking it this Saturday

FA 3.1 - 3.4

Anyone doing the FA over upcoming weekend?





FA 3.1 - 3.4

ADAPT and SOA questions

Am I losing out on anything if I only use the SOA questions on ADAPT?



I feel like it's best to use actual test problems, but doesn't SOA hold back the most recent test problems?





ADAPT and SOA questions

Domestic Violence

Is it still common? I thought it was part and parcel of the past.



In this year Grammy awards, Obama made a TV announcement that 1 in 4 women in the U.S. is subject to some sort of domestic violence. Was he serious? I mean 1 in 4 is a lot.



With so many human rights organizations, free media and all those feminists looming over, it is pretty surprising to know that domestic violence still exists in this country.



Thoughts?





Domestic Violence

Pricing Gap options using Black-Scholes

in section 14.2.2, Pricing Gap Options using Black-Scholes, of the ASM Manual, we are given the formula:



d1= [ln (Se^-(δT) / K_2 * e^(-rT) ) +T*.5*σ^2] / (σ*T^(.5))

and d2= d1-σ*T^(.5)



Solving Quiz 14 -2 (pg 342), we are given

For a 1-year gap put option, you are given:

Stock price = 40

δ=0

r=.08

σ=.3

K_2 / Trigger = 45



Using Black-Scholes pricing, calculate the strike price that makes the price of this option zero.



Why in the solution do they use the formula for d1 as

d1= [ln(S/K) + (r-δ+.5*σ^2)T ] / (σ*T^(.5))

instead of the bolded formula above?



Thanks!





Pricing Gap options using Black-Scholes

McCarty question

McCarty talks a little about how low score people are more likely to file claims than high score people. I was a little confused what his point was.



It seems from the paper that he is talking about it in order to justify how credit score isn't actually an effective identifier of expected loss, and that the loss distribution of everybody across the board is actually the same; it's just that the frequency of high score people is not as high as that of low score because they don't file as many claims (because they're willing to eat losses to preserve their price).



But when you think about it, regardless of that reason, doesn't that effectively mean that the expected loss of the high score people actually is lower? Who cares that they don't submit a claim? Bottom line is that their overall is lower.



Can someone explain what his point is and how it doesn't mess up his whole tirade?





McCarty question

Slope of Gap Options

Hi all,

Example 14 D of the ASM Manual gives:

For a gap call option:

If K = 60, Option prem = 3.45

If K = 70, Option prem = .81



Question 2 asks: Determine the strike price such that the option premium is 0.



first they find slope, which I also was able to solve for: (.81 - 3.45)/(70-60) = -.264



Then to solve for x they say:

.81 - .264(x-70) = 0.



Solving for x yields x=73.07.



Can someone explain to me how the bolded formula was determined to be the correct formula to use, and what a generic formula would be to be used in similar examples?





Slope of Gap Options

Help with some (semi?) Spanish song lyrics

"Dos Tacos De Chorizo Por Favor" - a terrific song, and one that uses only two chords, so that even I can sort of play it.



YouTube link: http://ift.tt/1LARX1C



Here are the lyrics I have so far, with the bits I'm most sure I have wrong noted in red. Help from anyone who knows Spanish better than I do (i.e., most) is requested.





Dos tacos de chorizo por favor

I've been drinking all night and my head is so sore

Maybe some menudo, I've got to have some food

Oh, dos tacos de chorizo por favor



I went to the cantina, with my bonita Gina

The prettiest girl in San Antone

But I got muy ogracho, and she ran off with Nacho [ed - ha!]

And now I'm drunk and hungry and alone



So, dos tacos.....



(instrumental)



I went back to the cantina

'Cause drinking helps a broken corazon

And when I left the bar, la policia towed my car

And I couldn't find my way back home



So, dos tacos.....



(key change)



Dos tacos de chorizo por favor

I've been drinking all night and my head is so sore

Or maybe some menudo, porque ando muy crudo

Oh, dos tacos de chorizo por favor



Dos tacos de chorizo por favor!

Thanks!





Help with some (semi?) Spanish song lyrics

Pension comeback?

I saw this on the Wall Street Journal today. With the longer lives, pension plans are hurting companies; on the other end, people who enrolled in pension plan can enjoy their long and comfortable retirement life at their employers' cost.



http://ift.tt/1LARZGD



The other day, I was looking at threads that discussing futures of different actuarial fields. The thread started back on 2004 and comments have been made over the years. I guess companies started implementing retirement plans and getting rid of pension around 2004, or a couple of years later. A lot people though pension would go downhill from there; a few people were more optimistic about the future of pension. They thought soon enough people will realize that they are not good at managing their retirement funds and run out of money. The next generations will start asking employers to bring pension back.

I agree that an average person is not able to prepare themselves financially for longer life, i.e longer retirement, plus, the medical expenses will only increase the longer you live. Pension is more beneficial for most people.



I apologize for the poor grammar and spelling if there is any.





Pension comeback?
 

Lorem

Ipsum

Dolor