Hi,
I am trying to get some helpful ideas or possible methodologies on how to estimate the final LR of an on-going scheme.
The situation would be: There is a scheme for which a broker is authorized to write policies (12 months policies) during a period of 12 months (12+12 scheme) under certain conditions (pricing, etc..).
Before the first policy is issued, the estimation of the final LR would be the LR to which it has been priced, but once the actual information (claims and written premiums) starts to be reported to the company, how would you correct the forecast according to that.
It would be great to have a model that allows for a forecast of the final total premium written and final total claims incurred, and from there the final LR.
How would you approach these forecasts?
Thanks very much
A book or a paper recommendation also very welcome.
I am trying to get some helpful ideas or possible methodologies on how to estimate the final LR of an on-going scheme.
The situation would be: There is a scheme for which a broker is authorized to write policies (12 months policies) during a period of 12 months (12+12 scheme) under certain conditions (pricing, etc..).
Before the first policy is issued, the estimation of the final LR would be the LR to which it has been priced, but once the actual information (claims and written premiums) starts to be reported to the company, how would you correct the forecast according to that.
It would be great to have a model that allows for a forecast of the final total premium written and final total claims incurred, and from there the final LR.
How would you approach these forecasts?
Thanks very much
A book or a paper recommendation also very welcome.
Forecasting th final LR of live scheme
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