Hi everyone,
Merry Christmas! Best wishes to all of you.
Santa brought me this year a new pension study lol :duh:
I've been asked to evaluate the age of retirement of the affiliated population. I work in a pension fund (complementary pay-as you go system). In this scheme, people are allowed to go on early retirement as soon as the age of 50, but there are 2 main options : retirement at the age of 55 or retirement at the legal age which is 60.
What I'm asked to do is determine the probabilities to leave at the age of 55, then at 60, then after 60. These probabilities are afterwards affected to the number of affiliated people (to do projections for the actuarial balance sheet). I don't know if I'm making much sense.
Let me try to clarify. While elaborating the actuarial sheet, and after the data cleansing, we take for instance the stock of people aged less than 57 years. We duplicate this stock three times and consider that the first stock will retire at the age of 55, the second stock at the age of 60 and the third stock at the age of 65. Then we project (for the next 60 years) considering the modified age of retirement. The weight of people in each stock is determine by multiplying the initial number of people leaving at age X (for example 35) by 36% for the first stock, 58% for the second stock and 6% for the third stock.
Now this might sound a bit complicated. I have 2 questions. First ones, do you know of any method to estimate this age of retirement in terms of probabilities (determine the 36% and 58% and 6%). Then, is there any way I can affect these probabilities to my population without having to duplicate each time as the probability to make mistakes is greater this way.
I hope I was clear. Thank you for ready and thank you soo much for your help.
Happy holidays!
cheers.
Merry Christmas! Best wishes to all of you.
Santa brought me this year a new pension study lol :duh:
I've been asked to evaluate the age of retirement of the affiliated population. I work in a pension fund (complementary pay-as you go system). In this scheme, people are allowed to go on early retirement as soon as the age of 50, but there are 2 main options : retirement at the age of 55 or retirement at the legal age which is 60.
What I'm asked to do is determine the probabilities to leave at the age of 55, then at 60, then after 60. These probabilities are afterwards affected to the number of affiliated people (to do projections for the actuarial balance sheet). I don't know if I'm making much sense.
Let me try to clarify. While elaborating the actuarial sheet, and after the data cleansing, we take for instance the stock of people aged less than 57 years. We duplicate this stock three times and consider that the first stock will retire at the age of 55, the second stock at the age of 60 and the third stock at the age of 65. Then we project (for the next 60 years) considering the modified age of retirement. The weight of people in each stock is determine by multiplying the initial number of people leaving at age X (for example 35) by 36% for the first stock, 58% for the second stock and 6% for the third stock.
Now this might sound a bit complicated. I have 2 questions. First ones, do you know of any method to estimate this age of retirement in terms of probabilities (determine the 36% and 58% and 6%). Then, is there any way I can affect these probabilities to my population without having to duplicate each time as the probability to make mistakes is greater this way.
I hope I was clear. Thank you for ready and thank you soo much for your help.
Happy holidays!
cheers.
Retirement age
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