caught my falling knife and held, part of my plan
I had one issue though, the major indexes were doing not good things, flip flopping back and forth and when they do that, something is usually going to happen big, up or down
now since trend is ur friend u would say up, and mfund guys will go with what has worked, etc.
a normal bull market last 50 months, we are at 58 ish which is kind of a max
now we can go higher and more length if there is real growth projected in the future, now we have had some earnings reports and no one is pumping growth growth growth
no one is saying slow down
what u do hear on the sidelines is we need a 10% correction
I just looked at 500 charts, and the charts are saying, hummmmm on growth
U see big pro's big funds big investment banks who do it daily know the stats and they are investing for themselves, not long term retirement money
so, if you caught the lows ur up and ungodly amount, just ungodly, the pickle they have is when and how to take profits protect them and maximize them
well u sell when it is tax advantageous, like now so u don't have to pay tax for 16 months and u have a bigger book to invest up or down with
that's kind of how i'm reading it, slow selling into whatever strength they can find............................
and while new bonus money is coming into market every two weeks, the biggest slug is first two weeks of april.........................
so, if we correct 10-15% from here, and corrections last 4-8-10 weeks HISTORICALLY IN A BULL MARKET.....................this puts us right at that time frame to stop the correction in it's tracks
and next week we have 300 companies reporting earnings, and imho, no company is going to be so rosy, or a lot of them rosy as a whole for people, mfund guys to buy buy buy, they will wait and see hoping they can get lower
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR OPEN ON TUESDAY IS A GAP DOWN AND IT KEEPS GOING, THAT WOULD MEAN, IT IS OR HAS STARTED, THE CORRECTION
If we go green, my best guess, and stay green until 1pm, and then start to sell off, we have two options, one, a volatile week or two I nailed the sell off corrections on the dot to the exact minute, lol.....................
since it was options on Friday a lot of time you have follow thru to the upside to clean out what the big options houses ended up owning that they don't wand to........................
so, my knife play, I must be very adept, I will have to be ready to protect what profits I have left...............................
done one of two ways, a. liquidate near the open, hopefully selling into strength b. rest my stop loss in the first half hour, hope it follows market up and reset a very tight stop at noon, or dump em
not a lot of news for the week in general besides earnings, just pray no bad bad bad news happens on Monday the holiday
right now ibm a huge influence on the market is buoying is up and is rises into earnings, which I think are before bell on Wednesday or afterwards
NEGATIVES THAT CONCERN ME
a. jobs report stunk stunks stunk
b. Canada and austraila lost jobs as a whole
c. fed is cutting some purchases, and jawboning is saying more
d. china stocks suck
e. glycoman asked about dollar, dollar is fine, other currencies though, which are much thinner in volume are getting antsy
f. earnings reports so far are not growth oriented
In febuary we have the famed DAVOS, where all billionaires go to shoot the shit, I imagine, they will drink fine wine, smoke stinky cegars, and say they have made a killing buying low with govt help and are now selling to lock in profits...............and then it is a HOLY SHIT MOMENT, I better also, and I better do it now before they do
if this plays out I would imagine we recoup all losses by july, when another quarter is in the books, and we have another slug of money and earnings reports and folks can cheer growth is coming growth is coming
then it gets tricky we growth does not come
febuary jobs report is going to be critical imho
I had one issue though, the major indexes were doing not good things, flip flopping back and forth and when they do that, something is usually going to happen big, up or down
now since trend is ur friend u would say up, and mfund guys will go with what has worked, etc.
a normal bull market last 50 months, we are at 58 ish which is kind of a max
now we can go higher and more length if there is real growth projected in the future, now we have had some earnings reports and no one is pumping growth growth growth
no one is saying slow down
what u do hear on the sidelines is we need a 10% correction
I just looked at 500 charts, and the charts are saying, hummmmm on growth
U see big pro's big funds big investment banks who do it daily know the stats and they are investing for themselves, not long term retirement money
so, if you caught the lows ur up and ungodly amount, just ungodly, the pickle they have is when and how to take profits protect them and maximize them
well u sell when it is tax advantageous, like now so u don't have to pay tax for 16 months and u have a bigger book to invest up or down with
that's kind of how i'm reading it, slow selling into whatever strength they can find............................
and while new bonus money is coming into market every two weeks, the biggest slug is first two weeks of april.........................
so, if we correct 10-15% from here, and corrections last 4-8-10 weeks HISTORICALLY IN A BULL MARKET.....................this puts us right at that time frame to stop the correction in it's tracks
and next week we have 300 companies reporting earnings, and imho, no company is going to be so rosy, or a lot of them rosy as a whole for people, mfund guys to buy buy buy, they will wait and see hoping they can get lower
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR OPEN ON TUESDAY IS A GAP DOWN AND IT KEEPS GOING, THAT WOULD MEAN, IT IS OR HAS STARTED, THE CORRECTION
If we go green, my best guess, and stay green until 1pm, and then start to sell off, we have two options, one, a volatile week or two I nailed the sell off corrections on the dot to the exact minute, lol.....................
since it was options on Friday a lot of time you have follow thru to the upside to clean out what the big options houses ended up owning that they don't wand to........................
so, my knife play, I must be very adept, I will have to be ready to protect what profits I have left...............................
done one of two ways, a. liquidate near the open, hopefully selling into strength b. rest my stop loss in the first half hour, hope it follows market up and reset a very tight stop at noon, or dump em
not a lot of news for the week in general besides earnings, just pray no bad bad bad news happens on Monday the holiday
right now ibm a huge influence on the market is buoying is up and is rises into earnings, which I think are before bell on Wednesday or afterwards
NEGATIVES THAT CONCERN ME
a. jobs report stunk stunks stunk
b. Canada and austraila lost jobs as a whole
c. fed is cutting some purchases, and jawboning is saying more
d. china stocks suck
e. glycoman asked about dollar, dollar is fine, other currencies though, which are much thinner in volume are getting antsy
f. earnings reports so far are not growth oriented
In febuary we have the famed DAVOS, where all billionaires go to shoot the shit, I imagine, they will drink fine wine, smoke stinky cegars, and say they have made a killing buying low with govt help and are now selling to lock in profits...............and then it is a HOLY SHIT MOMENT, I better also, and I better do it now before they do
if this plays out I would imagine we recoup all losses by july, when another quarter is in the books, and we have another slug of money and earnings reports and folks can cheer growth is coming growth is coming
then it gets tricky we growth does not come
febuary jobs report is going to be critical imho
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