Why not instead take the 52-week moving average for the Fund you are in?
If that 52-week trend is below your expected investment return (say 6%), then consider allocating more % to stocks than the index fund for your retirement year provides.
If the 52-week trend is higher than your expected investment return (more than 6%), then choose a portfolio with more % in bonds than the index for your retirement year offers.
Perform this test once every 60 days.
Take small steps, not major ones. If you do this, I can't see how odds wouldn't be in your favor that you can beat the index fund.
Idea is every time market jumps up and down, you keep riding the climbs and dodging the falls. But you can't predict the climbs and falls with certainty, by I am convinced you can assess if the likelihood of a climb exveeds a fall. When I see a DOW number above 18,000, I am less inclined to predict a 2% rise impending, vs when it fell a ton the day before
But over the 60-day rule the same logic kind of applies, just the thresholds won't be .5% to 2%, but more like 3-6%
If that 52-week trend is below your expected investment return (say 6%), then consider allocating more % to stocks than the index fund for your retirement year provides.
If the 52-week trend is higher than your expected investment return (more than 6%), then choose a portfolio with more % in bonds than the index for your retirement year offers.
Perform this test once every 60 days.
Take small steps, not major ones. If you do this, I can't see how odds wouldn't be in your favor that you can beat the index fund.
Idea is every time market jumps up and down, you keep riding the climbs and dodging the falls. But you can't predict the climbs and falls with certainty, by I am convinced you can assess if the likelihood of a climb exveeds a fall. When I see a DOW number above 18,000, I am less inclined to predict a 2% rise impending, vs when it fell a ton the day before
But over the 60-day rule the same logic kind of applies, just the thresholds won't be .5% to 2%, but more like 3-6%
Why do you leave your 401k in the same Fund all the time?
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