Question 30 from the spring 2012 exam is an example of a question which serves to confuse me regarding emergence. I do not disagree with calculating the 2010 12-24 month emergence for Pattern I as (1/1.155 - 1/1.502)*1.502*115050 = 34565. The interpretation of the preceding sentence being (Expected reported % at 24 months - expected reported % at 12 months)*Guess Of Ultimate Claims. However, would not another reasonable calculation be to calculate the implied 12-24 month LDF 1.502/1.155 = 1.3 and then calculate the emergence as 115050*1.3 - 115050 = 34515? Is either acceptable and one should simply state at the beginning what one is doing?
Regarding Emergence
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