Can someone help clarify the conditional probability of the beta distribution?
More specifically, why does Pr (X3 | X1, X2) = 2/3 when the first two trials are successes?
I understand the parameters a and b. And I sorta understand that the answer has something to do with the expectation being a/(a + b) . Is there a brute force / first principals way to solve using the pdfs of the observed data?
More specifically, why does Pr (X3 | X1, X2) = 2/3 when the first two trials are successes?
I understand the parameters a and b. And I sorta understand that the answer has something to do with the expectation being a/(a + b) . Is there a brute force / first principals way to solve using the pdfs of the observed data?
ST: ASM 2nd edition, 2nd printing. Exercise 17.4
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